VZCZCXRO1143
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0420/01 0810837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 210837Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0267
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DONORS MEET WITH SRSG QAZI IN PREPARATION FOR ELECTIONS 
 
REF: (A) 07 KHARTOUM 2041 
 
(B) 07 KHARTOUM 2011 
(C) 07 KHARTOUM 1971 
(D) 07 KHARTOUM 1834 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In response to donor's concerns about UN slowness 
on the Sudanese 2009 elections, SRSG Ashraf Qazi and the Electoral 
Donors met Tuesday, March 18, to share dates, assumptions and 
concerns. SRSG Qazi recognized that, as UNMIS works to build Sudan's 
electoral capacities, key legislative agreements are needed from 
Sudan to begin preparations. Electoral donors expressed frustration 
with the slow pace of preparations and requested more frequent 
high-level joint UNMIS-donor meetings.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) With next month's national census rapidly approaching, and 
the July 2009 (actual date is not set) election right around the 
corner in terms of the need to prepare adequately, Special 
Representative to the Secretary General Ashraf Qazi welcomed the 
Electoral Donors Group on March 18 at UNMIS headquarters. Beginning 
by agreeing to more frequent meetings, SRSG Qazi noted that Sudan is 
entering an important phase in its history, making the work of the 
donors essential to its democratic transition. With regard to the 
census, Qazi noted that roadblocks have occurred with the Government 
of Sudan (GOS) objecting to UNMIS participation. Moreover the 
Government of South Sudan (GOSS) still requires final GNU funding 
for the census to be released, and there are reports from Darfur of 
massive Darfuri non-participation in the census (septels). 
 
¶3. (SBU) Despite problems with the census, UNMIS and the United 
Nations are pressing ahead and assuming that the elections will take 
place in July 2009 although both parties could agree to a 
postponement until late 2009 to avoid the rainy season. SRSG Qazi 
distributed a draft planning list of dates for the July 2009 
elections (see below).  [Note: Both the census and the elections are 
milestones in the CPA that must take place before July 9, 2009.  The 
census is important for the determination of wealth and 
power-sharing at a national level, but is a separate and distinct 
process from the elections, and may be linked or de-linked from the 
election depending on how the much-debated but not yet approved 
Electoral Law is written.  Many Sudanese mistakenly believe that 
electoral participation is dependent on the census. End note.] 
 
¶4. (SBU) Qazi said that while the census may not result in a 100 
percent accounting of the population of Sudan, once it has been 
conducted election planning can move forward. The National Electoral 
Law should be submitted to Parliament for ratification in early 
April, as the Government of National Unity (GNU) has tentatively 
reached an agreement on proportional versus geographical 
representation. Following this, the National Elections Commission 
(NEC) should be formed by June 15, enabling the GOS to formally make 
a request for UN support, as UNMIS is ready to assist with voter 
registration starting early 2009. The upcoming Sudan Consortium will 
provide a forum for donors to continue to press the Government of 
National Unity (GNU) on the importance of the Electoral Law, the NEC 
and UNMIS support. [Note: The SPLM-NCP agreement on percentages of 
the mixed electoral system is a big step in moving the draft 
electoral law forward.  As of this writing, however, the parties 
were still in disagreement over whether proportional voting will be 
based on state-level or national lists.  It is unclear whether the 
National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) will push the law 
forward to Parliament if the parties continue to disagree on this 
one point. End note.] 
 
¶5. (SBU) In preparation for the elections, Qazi said UNMIS is slowly 
building its own capacity on the policy side, working closely with 
the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to complete a set of 
recommendations for an elections policy meeting on March 25. 
Sensitive to the Sudanese perception that the donor community is 
aloof from the policies that guide the electoral process, UNMIS is 
pushing for the creation of the NEC to act as the interlocutor with 
the voting public. Qazi noted that UNMIS must convince the GNU of 
the need for assistance. The Carter Center, invited to act as 
elections observers by the GNU but unable to gain approval to 
observe the census independently, provides a preview of the 
obstacles the donors may face during elections. (Note: After 
concluding that they would not be afforded operational independence 
by the GNU, the Carter Center refused to participate in the upcoming 
census, but will keep a limited presence in country during the 
census and through the electoral preparation period in order to 
assess the run-up to the 2009 elections. End note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) Qazi opened the floor to suggestions from the donor 
community on supporting the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), to 
prevent conflict and encourage democratic transformation. Charge 
Fernandez said it is critical that elections take place outside of 
the rainy season and observed that preparations are moving much too 
 
KHARTOUM 00000420  002 OF 003 
 
 
slowly. He noted that independent of the actual elections timetable, 
Western countries needed to intensify their non-partisan support for 
capacity building and training among Sudan's political parties. Qazi 
acknowledged the tight timetable, and noted that if the elections do 
not occur by July 2009, there was a possibility that they could be 
moved to fall 2009 as allowed by the CPA. Changing the date does 
have downsides, Qazi noted. (Note: Qaai was not specific but 
presumably was referring to possible civil unrest or heightened 
tensions between the SPLM and NCP due to delays. End note.) 
Regarding the pace of preparations, Qazi said UNMIS is sending 
materials to the South on elections, but much depends on the 
establishment of the NEC. 
 
¶7. (SBU) UNMIS Chief Electoral Officer Ray Kennedy spoke on the 
subject of the elections preparations. UNDP is currently working on 
capacity building of political parties, following a model used by 
UNDP Mexico to strengthen the capacity of domestic observers. UNMIS 
Public Affairs recently ran a two-day gender event for women, who 
had the opportunity to role-play as candidates, observers and 
voters. CDA Fernandez requested more preparation on bilateral, 
multilateral, and institutional fronts in order to insulate donor 
preparations from the ballot box itself. The donors pressed for a 
strategic action plan and asked about the capacity of UNMIS to move 
immediately.  In response, UNDP produced the draft of planning dates 
for the July 2009 elections (see below). UNMIS is recruiting staff 
to be at full operational capacity by late this summer but still 
only has two fulltime staff planning for elections (Kennedy and an 
assistant). 
 
¶8. (SBU) The UK Ambassador concurred with the sense of urgency, 
thanking those assembled for the high priority they have placed on 
this and upcoming meetings. Concerned that the Electoral Law has not 
yet been finalized, and suggesting that "minute disagreements in the 
details do not justify its inconclusive status," she recognized that 
the GNU will likely pick and choose how it engages with UNMIS and 
UNDP, and play one off the other. Qazi said that as the UN builds 
its core election team to be ready in June, it is working to 
minimize the capacity of the regime to play one side of the UN 
against the other. He said the UN's role is to prepare for a request 
for assistance, but it is already sending its electoral assistance 
team to Sudan in April, before an official request from the NEC. 
Thus, the draft of key planning dates for the July 2009 elections 
(below) should be considered an operational document. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The EU Ambassador noted the three critical events for donor 
planning that have not yet occurred: the enactment of the Electoral 
Law; the establishment of the NEC; and the hypothetical NEC request 
for UN electoral support. From that date, he noted, there are only 
six months to start voter registration. He suggested that, working 
closely with the Carter Center, the monitoring commission should be 
headed by a member of the European Parliament.  The Swedish Charge 
recommended shifting preparations toward direct engagement with the 
population, as the National Congress Party (NCP) does not want 
direct engagement with donors. Qazi emphasized that although the 
South is in greater need of capacity building, and the GNU has yet 
to name an interlocutor, the international community needs to work 
with both the GOS and the GOSS on the monitoring preparation. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Echoing CDA Fernandez, the Dutch Ambassador said the donor 
community needs to identify democratic transformation activities not 
directly tied to the electoral process. The EU ambassador stressed 
the importance of preparatory work to positively affect perceptions. 
The Canadian Charge stated his concern about the conditions for 
effectively monitoring the elections - because the government can 
interfere in the monitoring process, so it is therefore critical to 
have a credible structure for monitoring. Qazi noted the importance 
of involving African institutions in the monitoring process as well. 
Qazi closed the meeting stating it was not UNMIS's intention to sit 
and wait, but rather that preparations for the elections require 
"sensitivity" in order to strike the correct balance among all 
involved.  (Comment: This is a familiar refrain for SRSG Qazi, who 
does not believe that pressure is an effective tool to promote the 
international community's agenda with the GNU. End comment.) 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Key Illustrative Planning Dates for July 2009 Elections 
(Draft, UNMIS) 
 
April 15  Electoral Law Enacted 
June 15  National Elections Commission seated 
July 1  NEC Request for UN electoral support 
July 31 NEC completes policy decisions on registration 
August 31  Registration procedures approved 
September 6 Registration materials finalized 
September 15 Order registration education campaign materials 
September 30 Registration sites identified 
 
KHARTOUM 00000420  003 OF 003 
 
 
September 30 Registration kits ordered 
October 31 Electoral boundaries final 
November Distribution of registration education campaign materials 
November  Registration staff recruited 
November 30  Registration kits received in Khartoum 
December   Registration kits distributed 
December 15 Registration staff training completed 
4th Quarter NEC offices established at state level 
January 2009 VOTER REGISTRATION 
February 28 Data entry completed 
Early March List printing/distribution, training for exhibition 
Mid March  Order electoral materials 
Late march Exhibition of Preliminary Voters List 
April   Nominations 
April/May  Ballot design and procurement 
May/June Distribution of electoral materials (non-sensitive) 
May/June  Campaign period 
Late June Distribution of election materials (sensitive) 
Early July  ELECTIONS (first round) 
Mid July   Results announced 
July 31  Results final 
Late September ELECTIONS (second round) 
October 31  Results final 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: The tentative electoral timeline put forward by 
UNMIS is ambitious and may be completely unrealistic given that the 
Electoral Law has not yet been finalized and there is no NEC in 
place, although it is doable if both of these items are wrapped up 
within the next two months. Still, it is a useful summary of the 
daunting electoral calendar ahead of us.  The international 
community has been frustrated with UNMIS' lack of dialogue and 
coordination with the GoS on electoral preparation, especially given 
UNMIS' mandate to assist the GoS in carrying out the 2009 elections. 
 Without an NEC in place, donors lack a GoS partner, and see SRSG 
Qazi as best placed to push electoral preparations forward with 
high-level GoS officials.  However, to date he does not seem to be 
pushing this agenda with as much vigor as required. To this end, 
donors will continue to push UNMIS and SRSG Qazi to fulfill UNMIS' 
electoral assistance mandate with at least monthly meetings. 
 
FERNANDEZ