VZCZCXRO8301
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0407 0780727
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180727Z MAR 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0250
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000407 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID SU
SUBJECT: AGREEMENT MAY BE NEAR ON ELECTIONS LAW 
 
¶1. (SBU) The SPLM in Juba currently is considering an NCP/SPLM 
compromise on the National Elections Law, according to SPLM 
S-ecretary General and GNU Minister of Cabinet Affairs Pagan Amum. 
The compromise draft, worked out between Vice President Ali Osman 
Taha, National Congress Party Assessment and Evaluation Commission 
representative (and Navaisha negotiator) Mohamed Moktar el Hassan, 
GNU Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie, SPLM Secretary General 
Pagan Amum and SPLM Deputy Secretary General Yasir Arman, would end 
the multi-month impasse over the draft law which initially was to 
have been submitted to the National Assembly in October 2007.  Amum 
tabled a non-paper on the compromise to the SPLM Interim Political 
Bureau (IPB) on March 16, and told ConGen Juba PolOff the same day 
that he expected full IPB approval by week's end. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Although disappointed with the need to compromise on what 
they believe was an SPLM position that was both rational and 
favorable to Northern opposition parties, SG Amum and other senior 
SPLM leaders have grown weary of what they term "continued NCP stall 
tactics" on elections.  According to Amum, the compromise position 
was driven by an SPLM decision to force the issue of Sudan's 
democratic transformation by "making the timely contest of elections 
inevitable." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Amum estimated that elections will be possible by "May or 
June of 2009 at the latest."  He admitted, however, that neither 
party has a sense of who should be on the National Elections 
Commission - the neutral oversight body charged with the creation 
and implementation of the bulk of the Sudanese electoral legislative 
and policy infrastructure.  (COMMENT: Speedy NEC formation is 
essential, as the CPA mandates that Sudan have six levels of 
elections by July 2009.  While the CPA's wording is ambiguous, the 
international community and Sudanese political establishment are 
operating under the assumption that polling will occur and ballots 
cast for each level on the same day.  NEC establishment, policy 
formulation and implementation will have to be fast-paced in order 
to meet such a deadline. END COMMENT.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) The joint proposal tabled by Amum before the IPB contains 
compromises on each of the four remaining contentious points of the 
draft law: it defines the mixed electoral system (direct and 
proportional), establishes percentage lists for women and "others" 
(independent candidates) and resolves the question of state-level 
versus national level constituencies.   The proposal holds that 55 
percent of the seats within the National Assembly would be contested 
by party candidates in geographical constituencies below the state 
level using the first-past-the post system of elections.  If agreed 
to by the SPLM, this would mean that 45 percent of the National 
Assembly seats would be filled via proportional representation. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The compromise represents a 5 percent sacrifice by both 
parties with respect to their original 50/50 (SPLM) and 60/40 (NCP) 
demands.  The proposed compromise does not address the question of 
minimum thresholds required to gain representation in any assembly. 
It does, however, specify that there is to be a 25 percent set-aside 
for women, contested at the national level as a closed party list. 
Similarly, a 20 percent set-aside also at the national level has 
been established for independents - an SPLM trade-off with the NCP 
in exchange for a dedicated women's list. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: While the forward momentum on the slow in coming 
national elections law is promising, establishing geographical 
electoral constituencies below the state-level will be problematic 
in the absence of a clearly defined North/South border and continued 
tribal tensions in the South and outright conflict in some areas of 
Darfur.  Some observers from Juba's diplomatic corps believe that 
the potential for conflict over constituency delineation could delay 
elections, and the SPLM will have to work hard to overcome theseDo!.