VZCZCXYZ6016
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKH #0329/01 0651449
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051449Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0125
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, DRL, NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND 
CHUDSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EAID SOCI SU
SUBJECT: HEADING INTO 2009, NCP LOOKS STRONG IN NORTH KORDOFAN 
 
 
¶1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  Once an Umma Party stronghold, the National 
Congress Party (NCP) now appears well placed in North Kordofan 
heading into the 2009 national elections.  On February 21, the NCP 
won University of North Kordofan student elections in a campaign 
supported by a visit of Presidential Assistant Nafie Ali Al-Nafie 
and his promise to complete large infrastructure projects in the 
region.  Both NCP and opposition leaders told econoff in a recent 
trip to the region that the NCP has the best organized campaign in 
North Kordofan.  Opposition leaders also expressed unanimous concern 
that without election monitors 2009 elections will not be free and 
fair.  END SUMMARY. 
 
STUDENT ELECTIONS FORESHADOW 2009 ELECTION? 
------------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (U)  On February 21, the University of North Kordofan held 
student elections, announcing the following day that the NCP had 
won.  On March 3, the independent daily "As-Sahafa" reported that 
University of Kordofan Vice Chancellor Ahmad Al-Tajani Al-Mardi 
assured that the elections were free and fair and were monitored by 
impartial observers from all sectors of society. 
 
¶3.  (U)  The NCP-appointed local commissioner of Nahud, Sharif 
Al-Fadil, told econoff on February 22 that the NCP won by over one 
thousand votes at North Kordofan University.  According to Al-Fadil, 
this was the first NCP victory at this university in ten years, the 
SPLM having won the previous three years and other opposition 
movements before that. (Note:  "Al-Soudani" reported that the NCP 
had not won in Kordofan elections in five years.  End Note.)  "This 
is a clear sign that the NCP is doing great work in North Kordofan," 
boasted Al-Fadil.  He asserted that the NCP has succeeded in 
bringing new freedom to Sudan, ending the civil war, developing 
Sudan's petroleum industry, and improving Sudan's higher education. 
He boasted that it is the only party with intelligent leaders, and 
that the NCP was so intelligent that it has started to develop a 
lobby in the U.S. to undermine the Save Darfur coalition and other 
activisit groups. 
 
¶4.  (U)  Abd Al-Gadir Moniem Mansour, the Nazir (tribal leader) of 
the Hamar tribe told econoff on February 22 that the Kordofan 
student elections forecast how Kordofan will vote in 2009. 
According to Mansour, the NCP and SPLM are the only viable political 
parties in the region.  The once popular Umma Party, he said, has 
imploded and now lacks money and influence.  Mansour predicted that 
the NCP will win the 2009 elections. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Dr. Abdel Daiem Abdel Salaam of the Information Media 
Department at the University of West Kordofan criticized the NCP's 
involvement in the student elections, stating that it heavily funded 
the campaign and used national institutions (specifically the 
National Support Fund for Students (NSFS)) only for the NCP's 
benefit.  According to Abdel Salaam, the NSFS awards financial aid 
(e.g., paying student fees, providing housing, and allocating per 
diems) to NCP- affiliated university students.  Abdel Salaam stated 
that the NSFS is similar to other national institution such as the 
Popular Defense Forces and the Popular Committees, which are 
manipulated by the NCP for partisan gain. 
 
CAMPAIGNING FOR 2009 
-------------------- 
¶6.  (U)  Both NCP and opposition representatives stated that the NCP 
has the most extensive organization of any political party in North 
Kordofan.  An-Nahud's NCP party president, Ibrahim Abdel Gadier, 
stated "The NCP is the only party that is organized and ready to 
represent the people."  Abdel Gadier said that he traveled with 
Ahmed Ibrahim Al-Tahir (a leading NCP member and Speaker of the 
National Assembly) and Nafie Ali Nafie (Assistant to the President, 
Deputy of the NCP, and NCP Secretary for Political Mobilization and 
Organization) when they visited the state recently.  Nafie promised 
that by April, the remaining 17 kilometers of the El-Obeid-Nahud 
road would be paved.  He also promised to pave 22 kilometers of 
internal roads in An-Nahud.  Asked about the proximity of these 
projects to mid-term elections, Commissioner Sharif Al-Fadil told 
econoff, "Some might say that we are trying to buy the elections. 
But you have to ask who is buying and who is selling?  The Sudanese 
people are very intelligent, and it is an insult to them for you to 
think that the Sudanese people will change their votes based on one 
or two projects." 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Opposition leaders concede that the NCP has a campaign 
advantage with money, a developed organization, and the power of the 
media.  Abd Al-Hamid Moneim Mansour, the Minister of Health and SPLM 
president for North Kordofan state, complained that the NCP controls 
Sudanese state media, using it to its advantage, while leaving 
opposition parties "essentially without a voice."  Dr. Abdel Daiem 
Abdel Salaam of the Information Media Department in West Kordofan 
University predicted that the NCP will win elections because it 
controls all influential leaders in the state, donates money to 
influential organizations and civic groups, and has a strong 
campaign structure.  Abdel Salaam stated that the NCP has started 
campaign activities much earlier than any other party, that it has 
exerted "door to door pressure" on individuals in the community, and 
that not everything the NCP does is entirely transparent.  The Nazir 
of the Hamar tribe based in An-Nahood claimed that the NCP recently 
gave substantial donations to the An-Nahood Women's Union and school 
uniforms to primary and secondary students.  "This will influence 
the way these women and parents will vote," stated the tribal 
leader. 
 
ELECTION MONITORS NEEDED 
------------------------ 
¶8.  (U) In a large meeting with over twenty El-Obeid civic leaders 
of differing political orientations, econoff repeatedly heard of the 
need for independent observers of the 2009 elections.  Al-Rashid 
Othman Al-Sayyed Abd Al-Baqi, the General Secretary for the Sudanese 
Businessmen's Association in El-Obeid stated, "We need unbiased and 
neutral observers.  We will not trust the results of the elections 
if the government that is in power is responsible for organizing 
them."  One representative from the El-Obeid Association for 
Reconstruction and Development argued that all parties need equal 
access to campaign funding, as "the NCP can buy the elections if it 
wants to right now."  Other contacts stated that reliable census 
information is needed for Kordofan as the population of the region 
has risen dramatically in the last decade (with IDPs from Darfur and 
urban migration following desertification.)  They argued that 
without the census information, conditions could be ripe for fraud. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶9.  (SBU)  The NCP's success in the North Kordofan student elections 
follows other NCP university victories, such as in Kassala where a 
union of Islamic parties led primarily by the NCP defeated an 
opposition alliance of the Beja Congress, the Umma Party, the SPLM, 
and the Democratic Front on February 20.  Nafie's tour of Kordofan, 
his pledged infrastructure projects, and his provocative speeches 
appear to have set the tone for campaigning elsewhere.  For example, 
one week after his trip to Kordofan, Nafie traveled to White Nile 
State where he inaugurated a number of infrastructure projects (e.g. 
an electricity station, new roads and an irrigation canal), 
witnessed a mass marriage ceremony of 500 couples, and provocatively 
declared, "We will defeat the charlatan of this era and win 
elections." 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Comment continued:  In North Kordofan, the opposition 
already is accusing the NCP of controlling state media, using 
national resources and institutions for partisan purposes, and even 
buying votes.  The opposition parties' concern about the potential 
for fraud and abuse in the 2009 elections is justified, and the 
international community will need to focus more attention on the 
elections as they grow closer.  There are numerous obstacles to 
timely elections (the elections law still has not been passed due to 
wrangling over percentages) but it is clear that the NCP is 
preparing aggressively for them. 
 
FERNANDEZ