VZCZCXRO7558
OO RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0682/01 0780510
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 180510Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3282
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000682 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AF
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT'S LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS EMPOWER KARZAI 
OPPONENTS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The National Assembly's 2008 leadership 
elections, in which two deputy speakers and two secretaries 
were elected from among upper and lower house members, may 
have further diminished President Karzai's influence in the 
legislature.  While new and independent lower house First 
Deputy Speaker Mir Wais Yasini opposes ambitious Speaker 
Qanooni's attempts to control the institution's agenda, only 
First Secretary Abdul Satar Khawasi openly supports Karzai. 
Qanooni now holds a three-two majority in the leadership. 
The upper house could also edge towards becoming an 
anti-Karzai mouth piece.  New upper house First Deputy 
Speaker Hamed Gailani intends to run for president and has 
brokered mutual support deals with the rest of the upper 
house leadership through his new Harmony group. 
 
Lower House Leadership Majority Favors Qanooni 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (SBU) Lower house Speaker Mohammad Yonus Qanooni and the 
United Front political group gained a measure of additional 
power and influence in the 2008 lower house leadership 
elections.  Qanooni now holds a three-two majority in the 
lower house leadership.  In achieving this, Qanooni upset the 
previously accepted ethnic distribution of the four lower 
house leadership seats.  Members say they prefer a 
distribution that divides power between Pashtuns and Tajiks 
while reserving one position for another minority group: 
first deputy speaker - Pashtun; second deputy speaker - 
Hazara, Uzbek, or Turkman; first secretary - Pashtun; second 
secretary - Tajik.  With the election of a strong Tajik as 
 
SIPDIS 
second deputy speaker, this year's contest equally divided 
the four positions between Tajiks and Pashtuns, possibly 
exacerbating the already pronounced Pashtun-Tajik division in 
Kabul politics. 
 
The Lower House Victors: 
------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) First Deputy Speaker:  Mir Wais Yaseni is a Pashtun 
from Nangarhar province, and an independent reformer.  During 
the 2007 First Deputy race other members considered Yaseni 
Karzai's candidate.  He led the field until the President 
announced his support for the eventual winner, Mohammad Arif 
Noorzai, who is tied to the Karzai family by marriage. 
Following Karzai's apparent change of heart, Yaseni openly 
opposed the President throughout 2007.  Many members of the 
assembly now believe Karzai supported Yaseni's 2008 campaign, 
suggesting their possible rapprochement.  Though cautious, 
Yaseni is more respected and stronger willed than his 
predecessor Mohammad Arif Noorzai.  He may side with Karzai 
more than Qanooni in 2008, but already is proving to be a 
strong and independent leader. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Second Deputy Speaker:  Amanullah Payman is a 
moderate Tajik from Badakhshan province with broad appeal in 
the National Assembly.  He is a member of the Jamiat 
political party and United Front umbrella group.  He is also 
personally close to Qanooni and Rabbani, both of whom 
supported his candidacy.  Though Payman will advocate United 
Front positions, he may also seek to act as an intermediary 
with the President.  He has previously demonstrated himself a 
moderate interested in reaching out to Qanooni and Karzai. 
 
¶5. (SBU) First Secretary:  Abdul Satar Khawasi is a Pashtun 
from Parwan province.  He is a member of Hezb-e-Islami and 
closely linked to Farouk Wardak and President Karzai. 
Khawasi was a staunch Karzai supporter as First Secretary in 
¶2007.  He will likely continue to support the President's 
agenda and resist Qanooni's efforts to run the lower house as 
an opposition operation. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Second Secretary:  Dr. Mohammad Saleh Saljoqi is a 
Tajik from Herat province.  Saljoqi is not particularly close 
to the United Front, but was a member of the Jamiat party - a 
United Front constituent - and close to Rabbani.  Saljoqi 
will likely support the United Front's agenda in most 
 
KABUL 00000682  002 OF 002 
 
 
matters; he is not close to President Karzai or the Pashtun 
parties. 
 
Hamed Gailani Builds Upper House Coalition 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) While no seats changed hands in the upper house 
leadership elections, re-elected first deputy Hamed Gailani 
appears to be working behind the scenes to build his power in 
preparation for a 2009 presidential run.  Upper house members 
say Gailani has promised speaker Mojadeddi a role in his 
administration in exchange for the speaker's acquiescence to 
his deputy's agenda.  (Note:  Mojadeddi,s family is tied to 
the Karzais by marriage and he is a staunch champion of the 
President.)  Gailani is also backing the other upper house 
incumbents in an attempt to construct a leadership coalition. 
 Gailani calls his new coalition the Harmony group. 
 
Upper House Victors 
------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) First Deputy Speaker:  Gailani is a Pashtun from 
Paktia province.  His father, Pir Gailani, garnered one 
percent of the vote for president in 2004.  Hamed Gailani now 
seems to intend a presidential run.  He appears to have 
attempted to use the leadership elections to build himself a 
coalition in the upper house.   Gailani's coalition does not 
fall along traditional ethnic or regional lines, however, and 
upper house members' ethnic and tribal affiliations may 
ultimately trump a passing allegiance to him. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Second Deputy Speaker:  Dr. Burhanullah Shinwari is 
a Pashtun from Nangahar province.  Shinwari has been a strong 
Karzai supporter in the past.  It is not clear if Shinwari 
has broken with Karzai, or if Gailani's efforts to woo him 
have caused Shinwari to shift his long-term allegiance. 
 
¶10. (SBU) First Secretary:  Mawlawi Aminudin Mozafari is a 
Tajik from Kapisa province.  While Mozafari's political 
engagement usually involves religion, he is connected to 
Tajik warlords and has supported the United Front in the 
past. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Second Secretary:  Abdul Khaliq Hussaini is a 
member of the Pashai, a small tribe from the Konar/Nuristan 
area.  Hussaini supports Gailani and will seek to forward 
Gailani's legislative and presidential agendas.  Hussaini has 
also been a strong central government supporter, and it is 
unclear with whom he would side if forced to choose between 
Gailani and Karzai. 
 
Upper and Lower Houses May both Challenge Karzai 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The National Assembly's upper and lower houses may 
increasingly resist President Karzai in 2008 as Qanooni and 
Gailani separately seek to establish their electoral 
credentials.  Both once supported or at least suffered 
Karzai's government, but now accuse the President of 
squandering their patronage.  Karzai's administration, they 
say, has failed to address continued insecurity, corruption, 
and a weak Afghan economy.  The two are already using their 
positions to publicize perceived negative aspects of Karzai's 
presidency. 
WOOD