VZCZCXRO9682
PP RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0599/01 0690951
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090951Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3178
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 000599 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR MSHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: POLITICIZED PARLIAMENT FACES CHALLENGING 2008 
AGENDA 
 
REF: A. KABUL 361 
     ¶B. 07 KABUL 1605 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Afghan Parliament considered more 
legislation in 2007 (ref A) than in its inaugural session. 
It is increasingly seen by Afghans as a vehicle to take their 
concerns to the government.  Lower House Speaker (and 
presidential aspirant) Qanooni's willingness to use his 
position to challenge President Karzai on a number of issues, 
including executive prerogatives, meant Parliament focused 
more on political issues than on legislation.  The 
increasingly personal Karzai-Qanooni debate resulted in 
frequent divisions among Qanooni supporters, Karzai 
supporters, and a growing number of MPs who just wanted 
Parliament to get on with business.  With presidential and 
parliamentary elections looming sometime in 2009-2010, the 
2008 parliamentary session will be even more contentious. 
This will complicate timely passage of critical legislation, 
including the annual budget, the revised election law, and 
the interim government decrees still pending parliamentary 
approval.  For both sides, each legislative battle 
contributes to a larger constitutional contest between Tajiks 
and Pashtuns vying respectively to institute a parliamentary 
system of government or maintain the current presidential 
system.  There is also a deepening struggle underway over the 
future of Afghanistan's constitutional order as old style 
warlords seek to shape the system to their purpose while a 
nascent group of reform-oriented politicians is beginning to 
emerge. 
 
Warring Past Shapes but Doesn't Dictate Politics 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Building from its first year in 2006, Parliament 
continued to develop as a political institution.  Members put 
some of the issues that focused early 2006 debate behind 
them, including whether female and male members can sit next 
to one another, and now use their committees and plenary 
debates to address legislative issues and Afghanistan's broad 
political challenges.  Rivalries of the past continued to 
define internal allegiances, but members began to divide into 
three groups that reflect the national political landscape. 
Qanooni led a broad northern-based grouping, organized 
increasingly around the United Front, which he used to 
challenge Karzai.  President Karzai opposed Qanooni through 
the Palace office of Parliamentary Affairs, run by Farouk 
Wardak, and supported by a second group of MPs.  A very 
loosely affiliated third group of members attached to new, 
small, and mostly reformist parties sat between these two 
giants of old Afghanistan.  Despite these divisions, Afghans 
of all stripes sat next to one another and grappled with 
difficult questions using not weapons, but words (and the 
water bottles they occasionally hurled in early 2007). 
 
Parliament Improving but Highly Politicized 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Parliament continued to grapple with the challenge 
of reviewing the interim government decrees put in place 
prior to Parliament's inaugural session (ref A).  Nearly all 
of the bills treated by Parliament in 2007 were revisions of 
decrees that defined fundamental aspects of Afghan law, such 
as the tax code and the bill legalizing provincial councils. 
The legislature considered and passed more bills during its 
second annual session (2007) than during its first, and 
avoided some of its 2006 failings, passing, for instance, the 
1386 (2007-2008) national budget on time.  Parliament also 
drafted original legislation, including a controversial bill 
proclaiming amnesty for all those involved in the Jihad 
against the Soviets, civil war, and resistance to the 
Taliban. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Legislative throughput remained low in 2007, in part 
because of resource constraints and members' lack of 
technical expertise, but also because of the increasingly 
charged political atmosphere between Parliament and the 
 
KABUL 00000599  002 OF 004 
 
 
Palace.  Speaker Qanooni, when he was present, drove 
Parliament's agenda.  During his absence, First Deputy 
Mohammad Arif Noorzai's ineffective leadership presented a 
striking contrast to Qanooni's successes, leading to 
suspicions that Noorzai, a Karzai relative by marriage, was 
being set up to look ineffective.  Noorzai in fact lost his 
job in Parliament's 2008 leadership elections (septel). 
 
Speaking for the People can be Expensive 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ordinary Afghans increasingly saw Parliament as a 
conduit for expressing grievances and making demands on the 
government.  In April, the Workers' Union of Afghanistan 
protested against several articles of the Labor Law bill, 
originally written by the Ministry of Labor with considerable 
input from the International Labor Organization.  Discussions 
between Lower House members and a delegation of protest 
leaders assuaged protesters' concerns and informed Lower 
House debate on the bill.  Constituents also approached 
members with a steady stream of demands for development 
projects and improved security.  This led MPs to seek 
international assistance for projects in their provinces. 
Sometimes frustrated by the long and complicated 
international disbursement process, members highlighted that 
their re-election likely hinges on their ability to provide 
constituent services. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The strengthening connection between members and 
their constituents created an expanding financial burden for 
members.  Lower House representatives report that delegations 
of constituents arrive at their doorsteps in Kabul expecting 
to be hosted in traditional Afghan fashion.  Several affluent 
MPs have built guest houses to host these delegations; others 
feel they must pay hotel bills or at least provide meals to 
not violate Afghan norms.  Some complain that their salaries 
are insufficient to support a continual flow of guests, and 
that because they lack offices and staff to receive visiting 
constituents, visitors consume their time. 
 
Parliament: Stage for Public Debate; Tug of War with Palace 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Parliament served as a forum to debate sensiive 
issues such as Coalition missteps and the proper role of 
Islam in Afghan legislation.  Though discussion frequently 
became heated, mebers predominantly sought and arrived at 
reasoned decisions and courses of action.  In earl April, 
for example, members voiced outrage ater a Coalition convoy 
allegedly opened fire on civilians in Nangarhar province. 
While some used the attack to demonstrate concern for their 
constituents and purview over Coalition action, the Lower 
House ultimately sent a fact-finding investigation to 
Nangarhar.  The team reported that Coalition forces 
appropriately dealt with the transgression, and Parliament 
did not discuss the issue further. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Similarly, conservative mullahs in Parliament 
brandished their piety during a September debate of the 
Passport Law bill.  They argued that women cannot travel 
alone under Sharia law and should not be able to obtain their 
own passports.  Ultimately the mullahs ceded to moderates' 
counter that obtaining passports and traveling alone are not 
connected. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Lower House also became the stage for 
increasingly bold United Front opposition attempts to 
publicly discredit Karzai's government.  In May, the Lower 
House supported a no-confidence vote against the Foreign 
Minister and Refugee Minister for their "failure" to stop 
Iran from forcibly repatriating a large numbers of Afghan 
refugees (ref B).  The vote focused on the ministers (Karzai 
dismissed the Refugee Minister; Foreign Minister Spanta kept 
his job), but was ultimately an effort to assert 
parliamentary authority over the executive.  The Lower House 
similarly demanded that several executive branch officials 
 
KABUL 00000599  003 OF 004 
 
 
resign in the wake of the November bombing in Baghlan, which 
killed six members of Parliament.  In both cases, Speaker 
Qanooni used events as referenda to criticize Karzai's 
leadership. 
 
Daily Grind Wears Members Down, Weakens Quorums 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶10. (SBU) Toward the end of 2007, many Lower House members 
began to tire of debates on the long list of presidential 
decrees and skip plenary sessions.  Members' absence made 
reaching quorum (50 percent   1) increasingly difficult and 
interfered with Parliament's operation in October and 
November.  Weak quorums could enable minorities to control 
the agenda.  Groups took advantage of shaky quorums on 
several occasions by walking out to stop voting on 
contentious issues, including potential overrides of two 
Karzai vetoes.  International community work to develop 
Parliament's ability to draft legislation and manage an 
internal budget will help feed long-term popular interest in 
the still young institution. 
 
Elections, Politics will Dominate 2008 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Parliament's 2008 leadership elections (septel) set 
the tone for a divisive and contentious year.  The Lower 
House is divided between independents, Karzai supporters, and 
Qanooni's followers.  The Upper House appears more united 
under the new Harmony group, led by Senator Hamed Gailani, 
but Gailani's group is a fourth faction that will pull 
Parliament's agenda in yet another direction.  These groups 
will divide Parliament and Afghans in a year that the 
legislature is slated to consider several key bills, 
including the elections timing bill, the election law bill, 
and the 1387 budget.  All these, but especially the election 
bills, are at the heart of the Qanooni, Karzai, and now 
Gailani struggle.  Each politician will seek to have 
Parliament modify laws and approve resolutions to support 
their political goals.  Their singular focus on reaching the 
palace in 2009/10 drives their policy decisions. 
 
Constitution, Institutions, and Tribal Politics 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶12. (SBU) At this formative phase of its political 
development, several fundamental issues, political and 
constitutional, are still playing out.  First, Afghanistan's 
long history of tribal animosity, which has been unfolding in 
Kabul's institutions since the drafting of the constitution, 
still colors every aspect of the process.  During the 
Constitutional Loya Jirga, well-organized Tajiks, who are 
strong in Afghanistan's northern regions but do not have 
enough votes nationwide to carry the presidency, advocated a 
parliamentary system that would distribute power throughout 
Afghanistan.  Less-organized Pashtuns, who are a plurality in 
Afghan society, advocated for a highly centralized 
presidential system.  Both sides are still engaged in this 
contest; they believe the victor will control Afghan politics 
for the foreseeable future.  Second, the institutions of 
government are still defining their constitutional 
relationships, relative strengths, prerogatives, etc. in this 
tribally and politically charged atmosphere.  Parliament's 
attempt to impeach and remove Foreign Minister Spanta last 
May, Karzai's refusal to comply, and the Supreme Court's 
ruling in the President's favor, are prime examples that 
would resonate with scholars of American's early experiences 
under the Constitution.  In 2008, the United Front will 
likely use Parliament to force referenda on the Karzai 
government and assert Parliament's primacy over the executive 
branch.  Karzai, meanwhile, will likely push back by 
continuing to veto bills passed in Parliament in an effort to 
control the institution.  Finally, the less well defined, but 
very real, battle between the old and the new is shaping and 
cutting across all these issues.  This is a struggle between 
the last 30 years of Afghanistan's history, represented by 
 
KABUL 00000599  004 OF 004 
 
 
the warlords, and a nascent effort to define a new reformist 
and forward looking paradigm.  The latter group is centered 
around Afghans with international experience, often an NGO 
background, but still with broad-minded deep and authentic 
ties to the country.  More in their national outlook, this 
still shaping alignment has a less exclusively ethnic focus, 
greater comfort with balancing modern governance and 
institutions with traditional (tribal) structures, and 
readiness to move beyond the deep divisions of the last 30 
years.  How these various struggles interact and where they 
lead is anyone's guess, but it promises to be a tumultuous 
few years. 
WOOD