VZCZCXRO9750
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #0210/01 1421131
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211131Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2544
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 000210 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL ASEC GV
SUBJECT: UNDAUNTED BY INTERNAL DISCORD, UPR OPPOSITION 
PARTY PREPARES FOR ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CONAKRY 0131 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY. The president of the UPR opposition party 
assured Poloff that he remains the party's legitimate leader, 
irregardless of recent party declarations to the contrary. 
He attributes the internal dissension to a handful of members 
who want to ally with the UFDG and Cellou Diallo.  Having 
just returned from a month-long campaign through Middle 
Guinea, Bah was skeptical as to whether transparent elections 
can be organized by the end of year, if at all.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Despite having been publicly dismissed from his 
position as party president (reftel), Ousmane Bah of the 
Union for Progress and Renewal (UPR) opposition political 
party told Poloff on May 12 that he is still in charge since 
the majority of the party's membership is opposed to the 
decision.  The UPR is the only opposition party represented 
in the National Assembly, and as the head of the party, 
Ousmane Bah is the minority leader within the Guinean 
Parliament. 
 
----------------------- 
STILL THE HEAD OF PARTY 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Bah classified the recent dissent within the party 
as an "old problem."  He said that there is a continuing 
debate as to who should lead the party and in what direction. 
 According to Bah, members of the UPR's executive bureau met 
in October 2007 to discuss these issues, and in particular, 
the possibility of forming a political alliance with Cellou 
Diallo's Union Force Democratic Guinean (UFDG) party.  Bah 
told Poloff that a handful of members wanted to ally with the 
UFDG, but that the executive bureau decided to remain 
autonomous.  Bah said that his recent "dismissal" was 
orchestrated by a dozen members of the party's executive 
bureau who want to push for the alliance with the UFDG, to be 
led by Cellou Diallo. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In response to a question about the party's 
internal governing structure, Bah said that the executive 
bureau consists of 75 statutory members, but that in reality, 
there are about 120 active members, although he did not 
clarify the roles of these 45 non-statutory members.  Bah 
said that the group pushing for his dismissal and the 
alliance with the UFDG represents only a small fraction of 
the party leadership and therefore, cannot unilaterally make 
a decision that affects the entire party.  Bah assured Poloff 
that he remains the legitimate, democratically selected head 
of party.  He also said that he had filed paperwork with the 
Ministry of Interior and Security to clarify the situation, 
but that he has not yet received a response. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT.  During a May 13 meeting with the PM on 
elections (septel) Bah was the only head of party present as 
all of the other major parties sent deputy members to the 
meeting.  At one point, another political party referred to 
Bah as the UPR representative, to which Bah jokingly, but 
loudly, affirmed "not the representative, the president!" 
END COMMENT. 
 
--------------------- 
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL 
--------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Noting that Bah had just returned from a month long 
road trip in Middle Guinea, Poloff asked about the UPR's 
political campaign and elections preparations.  Bah said that 
the UPR is not officially campaigning at this point because 
Guinean law forbids campaigning until two months before 
Election Day.  He said that his main objective was to get a 
sense of how things are progressing at the local level and to 
begin raising awareness about upcoming elections.  Bah said 
he traveled extensively in Middle Guinea, which represents 
the party's largest constituent base (primarily from the 
Peuhl/Fulani ethnic group), and that he plans to travel 
throughout the rest of the country in the coming months. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Bah mentioned that he had participated in a large 
political rally in Conakry on May 10, which was reportedly 
organized by his supporters.  (COMMENT. Several Embassy 
employees noted the large gathering and an Embassy contact 
provided photographs of motorcycle brigades and hundreds of 
people wearing t-shirts displaying Ousmane Bah's profile. 
END COMMENT).  When asked how he is financing the party's 
activities, Bah said that he gets "local donations" and that 
 
CONAKRY 00000210  002 OF 002 
 
 
the UPR deputies to the National Assembly also provide 
financial support. 
 
------------------------ 
NOT SURE ABOUT ELECTIONS 
------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Regarding general elections preparations, Bah told 
Poloff "between you and I, absolutely nothing is ready."  He 
said that the most urgent need is a public education campaign 
to inform potential voters.  In addition, he said that 
although the local electoral commissions have been set up, 
they lack resources, and there is a general sense of 
confusion about who is responsible for what (i.e. local 
authorities versus electoral commissions).  Bah was critical 
of the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI), 
saying that the results of the elections will illustrate 
whether the Commission is truly independent or not. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Bah told Poloff that he is not convinced that the 
elections will take place in 2008.  "People want good 
elections, but we need to be at least 80% sure that we can 
have them."  When asked to clarify, Bah said that if 
organizational issues pose problems for transparency and 
credibility, it would be preferable to postpone the date 
rather than to go forward with elections that will likely be 
flawed. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Despite Ousmane Bah's personal misgivings about 
the potential for transparent elections in 2008, the UPR is 
the only political party that currently looks to be preparing 
a political strategy, at least overtly.  There has been quite 
a bit of talk and intermittent press coverage regarding 
Cellou Diallo and the UFDG, who are rumored to be spending 
significant amounts of money as he gears up his campaign. 
The UFDG and the UPR will be competing for the same voter 
base, and Ousmane Bah's decision to spend some time in the 
Middle Guinea likely represents a calculated political 
measure to try and shore up his support.  Bah told Poloff 
that the UPR will participate in transactions even if it 
looks like they will not be transparent.  END COMMENT. 
 
CARTER