VZCZCXYZ0023
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCV #0283/01 0631923
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 031923Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0711
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

id: 144028
date: 3/3/2008 19:23
refid: 08CARACAS283
origin: Embassy Caracas
classification: SECRET//NOFORN
destination: 
header:
VZCZCXYZ0023
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCV #0283/01 0631923
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 031923Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0711
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY


----------------- header ends ----------------

S E C R E T CARACAS 000283 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO PASS TO POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2033 
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV PTER MCAP CO VE
SUBJECT: RAUL REYES DEATH: CONFLICT DOES NOT APPEAR 
IMMINENT AS CHAVEZ ESCALATES RHETORIC AND "MOBILIZES" FORCES 
 
Classified By: Robert Downes, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (S/NF) Summary:  Notwithstanding President Chavez' order 
that ten battalions be dispatched to the Colombian border in 
the wake of the March 1 killing of FARC's second-in command 
Raul Reyes, DAO reports only a minor increase in activity at 
two relevant BRV bases in two states west of Caracas and no 
unusual moments of troops thus far.  (Note: Since his first 
efforts to release the FARC hostages, Chavez has worked to 
improve the image of the FARC.  End Note.)  Chavez' warning 	
to Colombian President Uribe not to undertake a similar 
operation along the Venezuelan/Colombian border implicitly 
recognizes that some FARC terrorists cross into Venezuela. 
Despite all of Chavez' bluster, the Venezuelan people and 
more importantly, its military, appear puzzled and concerned 
over Chavez' hostility toward Colombia as well as by this 
latest escalation.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The March 1 Colombian military operation that killed 
the FARC's second-in-command Luis Edgard Devia Silva, AKA 
"Raul Reyes", and other FARC terrorists set off a furious BRV 
response during the March 1-2 weekend.  Foreign Minister 
Nicolas Maduro read a March 1 communiquQ lamenting the death 
of Raul Reyes, calling it a "severe blow" for the 
humanitarian release process in Colombia.  He argued that it 
also "revealed the stubborn behavior of those who favor the 
military option."  Maduro called ReyesQ, death a "slap in the 
face for those of us who have placed our hopes for peace and 
for the best efforts to foment understanding as the formula 
to achieve reconciliation, reunion, and harmony among the 
people of Colombia."   Maduro asserted that only hours before 
the BRV had received international support for President 
ChavezQ, idea of forming an international contact group to 
facilitate further humanitarian releases.  The Foreign 
Minister reiterated the BRVQ,s willingness to continue 
working for a solution to "this conflict that seriously 
affects the stability, sovereignty, and security of the 
countries of the region." 
 
¶3. (SBU) The night of March 1, during a lengthy television 
appearance defending the BRV's efforts to combat crime, 
Chavez specifically warned Colombian President Uribe not to 
undertake a similar military mission across the 
Colombian/Venezuelan border, implicitly acknowledging that 
the FARC cross into Venezuela.  During his March 2 "Alo, 
Presidente" television broadcast, Chavez called the killing 
of Reyes a "cowardly assassination."  He eulogized Reyes as a 
"good revolutionary" and that "it feels as if my right arm 
has been torn off".  The BRV ordered all domestic media to 
observe a moment of silence for Reyes on March 2.  Chavez 
called Colombian President Uribe "a liar, Mafioso, a 
right-wing paramilitary running a narco-government 
subordinate to George W. Bush."  Chavez added that it was 
"necessary to liberate Colombia from the imperialism of the 
United States". 
 
¶4. (S/NF) During the same "Alo, Presidente" broadcast, Chavez 
ordered his defense minister to move 10 battalions, plus 
tanks, to the Colombian border immediately and to put the air 
force on alert.  Defense Minister Rangel Briceno publicly 
acknowledged the order from the audience.    Since that time, 
DAO reports only minor increases in activity at two military 
bases in states west of Caracas that might suggest 
preparations for mobilization and no unusual movements of 
troops so far.  (Comment: It is doubtful that the Venezuelan 
Military has the logistical capacity to mobilize an estimated 
5000-6000 troops and equipment quickly considering their lack 
of logistical equipment and the nation's highway system.  End 
Comment)  Furthermore, despite purchasing state-of-the-art 
fighters and attack helicopters, most local observers believe 
they are not yet combat ready.  Chavez also ordered FM Maduro 
to "close" the Venezuelan Embassy in Bogota.  Venezuelan 
diplomats started returning to Caracas as early as the night 
of March 2.  The Colombian embassy in Caracas told Poloff 
March 3 that their operations were normal, although the 
Colombian ambassador planned to fly to Bogota the same day. 
Chavez also announced that he would boycott the upcoming 
UNASER Summit meeting to be held in Colombia. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Chavez and other senior BRV officials are attempting 
to frame the BRV's dispute with Colombia as a dispute with 
the United States.  During a special March 2 airing of the 
political program "La Hojilla" BRV propagandist Mario Silva 
held up a map of Colombia showing some 12 radar site claiming 
that each was staffed with "35 U.S. special forces."  Silva 
 
asserted that another "1000 - 3000 Green Beret were currently 
in Colombia" training and advising the Colombian Army on an 
invasion of Venezuela. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment.  The BRVQ,s initial reaction was framed in 
terms of how ReyesQ, death would undermine efforts to secure 
the release of other FARC hostages.  Chavez, however, framed 
his subsequent decisions to order troops to the Colombian 
border and close the BRV Embassy in Bogota in much broader Q) 
and aggressive -- terms of defending the sovereignty of Latin 
American countries against Q&American imperialism.Q8  Given 
that ReyesQ, death occurred along the Ecuadorian/Colombian 
border, the BRVQ,s current dispute with the Colombia is 
entirely of its own making.  Anecdotally, Venezuelans appear 
puzzled by mixed signals from their government.  BRV 
mouthpiece daily VEA, for example, gave the Colombia story as 
second billing, headlining instead Chavez' approval of a 
national police law.  The mobilization order ran on page two. 
 ChavezQ, supporters at the March 2 Q&Alo, PresidenteQ8 
broadcast in Caracas and the United Socialist Party of 
Venezuela (PSUV) closing congress in Zulia reflexively 
applauded ChavezQ, bellicose statements, but we perceive much 
greater caution and concern among most Venezuelans. 
DUDDY 

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