VZCZCXRO1517
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0275/01 0811522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 211522Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0070
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0117

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000275 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: TADIC'S DS FORMS ELECTION COALITION WITHOUT LDP; 
SOCIALISTS COULD BE KINGMAKERS 
 
REF: BELGRADE 232 
 
BELGRADE 00000275  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) In advance of Serbia's parliamentary elections, 
scheduled May 11, the Democratic Party has formed a pro EU 
coalition.  Pollsters believe the Liberal Democratic Party may 
not cross the five percent threshold on election day, while the 
Socialists may play kingmaker in any new government.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
 
DS In Wide Coalition 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) has 
formed a wide coalition with democratic and minority parties for 
the parliamentary elections.  The coalition, under the banner, 
"For a European Serbia- Boris Tadic," comprises the DS, G-17 
Plus, the Sandzak Democratic Party (SDP), the League of Social 
Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) and the Serbian Renewal Movement 
(SPO) (reftel).  DS Campaign Chairman Marko Djuric confirmed in 
a party statement on March 19 that the DS will put forward 166 
candidates in the coalition.  The G17 Plus will put forward 60 
candidates, while the SDP, LSV and SPO will each have 8 slots. 
 
 
 
 
 
But Leaves Out LDP 
 
------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Missing from the democratic coalition is the left of 
center Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), headed by the 
charismatic, but controversial, Cedomir Jovanovic.  The LDP and 
DS have had a long standing feud based mostly on the 
personalities of Jovanovic and Tadic rather than unbridgeable 
policy differences.  Pollsters believe the pro-Western LDP could 
be in danger of not passing the five percent threshold. 
Campaigning alone, LDP may only win 3.1% of the vote, Director 
of Medium Gallup International, Srbobran Brankovic told poloff 
on March 19 (citing polling data from March 12).  Srdjan 
Bogosavljevic of Strategic Marketing was more optimistic, 
telling poloff on March 18 that LDP could just barely pass the 
threshold with 6% of the vote (citing separate polling data 
conducted on February 26 and March 13). 
 
 
 
¶4.  Leaving the LDP out may be a purposeful attempt by the DS to 
weaken the LDP base, but LDP officials remained confident. 
Bogosavljevic believed the DS was acting "irrationally" by 
isolating the LDP in this election, which could hurt the DS's 
chances of forming a government.  Marko Blagojevic of the Center 
for Free Elections and Democracy(CeSID), agreed, telling poloff 
on March 18 that if the LDP does not pass the threshold, their 
votes will be wasted and will be distributed among the larger 
parties (according to the D'Hondt method of seat allocation), 
which would benefit the Radical Party (SRS) the most.  Leon 
Kojen, former Tadic advisor and GOS Kosovo negotiator, told 
poloff on March 20 that the LDP may have serious trouble 
reaching the threshold.  According to Kojen, LDP will lose 
significant support from Vojvodina with the defection of LSV 
party to the DS coalition and strong DS and G17 Plus 
organizations there.  Kojen said that personal animosity between 
Tadic and Jovanovic made it impossible for the LDP and DS to 
join forces, and the fact that Jovanovic publicly suggested a 
joint ticket proves that Tadic rejected the idea. 
 
 
 
¶5.  The LDP remains optimistic it will pass the threshold.  LDP 
Vice President, Ivan Andric, however, told the embassy on March 
20 that his party was confident it could pass the threshold on 
its own, expecting to win 6%.  By running alone, the LDP has 
"never been more certain that we are doing the right thing," 
 
BELGRADE 00000275  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Jovanovic told weekly magazine Vreme on March 20. 
 
 
 
 
 
SPS Could Be King Maker 
 
----------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the party of 
former President Slobodan Milosevic, may become the kingmaker of 
any future coalition government after the May elections. 
Despite this distasteful pedigree, SPS leaders have long hinted 
they would like to bring the party closer to the democratic 
mainstream.  The SPS will likely get 6% of the votes in an 
expected coalition with two small parties, the Party of United 
Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS) and United Serbia (JS). According to 
Bogosavljevic, SPS could be a possible post election coalition 
partner with the DS.  The SRS could also try to court the SPS 
into a post election coalition, but SPS President Ivica Dacic 
told poloff on February 25 that such a coalition would be 
difficult due to feuding between he and Nikolic caused when SPS 
did not support Nikolic in the January presidential elections. 
Nonetheless, the possibility of such a coalition could up the 
cost (in terms of government positions) which DS would have to 
pay to get a coalition government with the SPS.  Blagojevic 
thought the SPS would ultimately choose to join a DS coalition, 
since joining the SRS would "destroy" the SPS as a political 
force.  The SPS, Brankovic said, is also seeking DS support to 
join Socialist International. 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Kojen told poloff March 20 that the Socialists had 
proven they still had a dedicated base by turning out almost 
250,000 votes (6%) in January 2008 presidential elections for a 
lackluster candidate (Mrkonjic) with no chance of winning.  He 
estimated that this coalition could win between 8%-10% of the 
vote, potentially allowing it to either play kingmaker, or even 
form an SRS-SPS coalition outright.  Kojen thought that 
Socialist leader Dacic had attacked the DS and its Kosovo policy 
so much that it would be difficult for him to join the DS, even 
under an agreeable deal. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The DS's large coalition will help it attract more 
votes and a wider electorate, however the wisdom or stupidity of 
excluding the LDP will only be known after election day. Almost 
certainly, if the DS is to be able to form a government it will 
need the support of another party after elections, perhaps the 
SPS.  Otherwise the Radicals, who will have a strong showing on 
election day, will be waiting in the wings to form a government 
with the Socialists and DSS (if needed). 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) (Cont.) Tadic's democratic forces have a tough battle 
ahead.  With all their failings and indecisiveness, they remain 
the party most in tune with America's goals in Serbia and the 
region.  Our open support for them, after Kosovo's independence, 
would only hurt their chances.  Instead, we should stay out of 
their way and try to do the coalition no harm.  End Comment. 
MUNTER