VZCZCXRO1335
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0218/01 0711158
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 111158Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0016
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0034

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000218 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SR XG KV
SUBJECT: SERBIA: LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO FOREIGN RELATIONS 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000218  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) and 
other pro-Western parties hope that Serbia will be able to 
return to European integration after Kosovo subsides.  Others in 
government recognize that the freeze between Serbia and the EU 
may last longer.  But even pro-European party insiders fail to 
realize that Serbia's aggressive reaction to Kosovo's 
independence, embodied by the activities of FM Jeremic, may have 
long term implications for its relations with the EU, its 
members, and the United States.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
 DS Hopes to Keep Working with EU 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) DS officials in the party and in government believe 
Serbia will be able to pick up with the EU where it left off 
before Kosovo's declaration of independence once the immediate 
situation surrounding the loss of Kosovo dissipates.  Despite 
the current situation, Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic 
still hoped to sign the Stabilization and Association Agreement 
(SAA) with the EU by the end of the year, Djelic's advisor for 
European Integration, Ksenjija Milivojevic, told poloff on March 
¶3.  Milovejevic confided that there were no serious attempts 
right now to try to get the SAA signed earlier, but she said 
they were quietly working with the EU on moving forward with 
technical issues.  In late February, the EU and Serbia discussed 
visa facilitation and were to sign an accord on financial 
arrangements, Milovejevic said.  Djelic hopes to keep this 
interaction going so that Serbia would be eligible for EU 
candidate country status once it signs the SAA, she said. 
However, Milovejevic said the situation was becoming 
increasingly more difficult due to the EU's growing involvement 
in Kosovo.  She cited EU/ International Civilian Representative 
Pieter Feith's statements on northern Kosovo as particularly 
difficult. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Marko Djurisic, President of the DS Executive 
Committee, told poloff on March 7 he was hopeful that Serbia 
would soon return to the EU path, but admitted that his party 
was only following day to day tactics at this stage as it tried 
to resolve government gridlock on a unified way ahead.  While 
insistent that the DS would not give up its EU focus, he gave no 
indications that the party had any longer term strategy for 
returning Serbia to the EU. 
 
 
 
MFA Looking for Clarity and Time 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Serbia's governmental bureaucracy appears more 
cautious in engaging with the EU, waiting for greater clarity 
from its divided government before proceeding. Serbia's EU 
integration efforts are on hold, and currently the MFA is "only 
providing advisory opinions to the government on EU issues", 
Marina Jovicevcic Director for the MFA's EU and Regional 
Initiatives told poloff on March 7.  She expected that this 
period of inactivity could go on for "quite a few months.  In 
the interim, Serbia may also need to further restrict its 
participation in regional forums whose members have recognized 
Kosovo, if it is to follow through on its Kosovo policy," 
Jovicevic said.   Serbia had kept its Ambassador to the EU and 
had only withdrew its ambassadors to bilateral missions, she 
pointed out, noting it as a positive sign for continuing to 
engage with the EU. 
 
 
 
EU Concerned of Damaged Relationship 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The EU office in Belgrade cautioned that the 
government's rhetoric and actions against EULEX will cause 
 
BELGRADE 00000218  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
problems for Serbia's pending Stabilization and Accession 
Agreement with the EU. EU representative Peter Sorensen told 
poloff on March 5 that while Brussels had worked to delink EULEX 
from Serbia's SAA process, it was the same group of EU ministers 
making decisions on both issues.  Serbia does not appreciate the 
"psychology" of its aggressiveness towards EULEX, and its 
International Civilian Representative Pieter Feith, which "would 
not be forgotten" by EU members and could impair Serbia's 
efforts to get an SAA, Sorensen said. 
 
 
 
Advisors See Damage Being Done 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Former Tadic advisor and GOS Kosovo negotiator Leon 
Kojen told poloff on February 28 that Serbia would suffer 
consequences from attacking institutions rather than just 
policies.  (Kojen resigned from Tadic's staff because he thought 
the president was going soft on Kosovo.)  He said he was 
"surprised" that Kostunica, Kosovo Minister Samardzic and 
Infrastructure Minister Ilic reacted to Kosovo independence and 
"reprehensible" riots with "savage" attacks on the EU, US and 
western European governments.  Kojen said that while it was 
"completely legitimate" to find fault with EULEX or EU policy, 
it was "damaging" to paint the EU itself as a sinister 
organization that "validated illegitimacy."  Kojen said that 
Kostunica-led attacks on the United States (and other European 
countries that support Kosovo independence) were equally 
damaging for Serbia.  Rather than opposing U.S. policy towards 
Kosovo and "pleading our case again" with a new U.S. 
administration, Kojen said Kostunica was wrong to unleash 
anti-Americanism as a political strategy.  Kostunica's efforts, 
Kojen said, could affect Serbian citizens' perception of the 
United States, EU, and other countries for many years. 
Similarly, Nenad Djurdjevic, assistant to Minister Rasim Ljajic, 
told poloff on March 10 that it was "pragmatic" for Serbia to 
join the EU even if it disagreed with EULEX.  Djurdjevic said it 
would be hard for the citizens to make this kind of choice with 
the political tensions so high in the aftermath of Kosovo's 
independence. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Former G-17 official and foreign policy advisor Milan 
Pajevic told poloff on March 10 that the DS was unaware of the 
long term impact its policy would have with the international 
community.  Pajevic said it would be hard for the DS to 
reconcile its pro-EU platform in upcoming parliamentary 
elections if Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic continued traveling 
the globe arguing Serbia's case for Kosovo. Pajevic called 
Jeremic's actions as unguided, referring to the "inexperienced" 
MFA as the "kindergarten foreign policy team." Pajevic said 
Tadic should "turn off" any additional similar international 
trips and comments by Jeremic to prevent further harm to 
Serbia's case for EU membership. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Jeremic, especially, seems unaware that he is painting 
pro-European Serbs into a corner. His continued anti-EULEX 
statements and overheated rhetoric about Kosovo will make it 
that much harder to mend fences with the west.  He has even 
stooped to Milosevic-era phrases on victimization of Serbs, 
emphasizing the humiliation of the nation at the hands of 
foreigners - all the while sending back channel messages to the 
embassy of his Atlanticist convictions. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
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¶9.  (SBU) Although the DS leadership may insist that it intends 
to get Serbia back on its European path as soon as possible, 
recent words and actions by the GOS against the EU most likely 
will impact that pace.  The DS, particularly FM Jeremic, seems 
disconnected from the impact their stand on Kosovo is having 
with future foreign relations.  End Comment. 
MUNTER