VZCZCXRO0155
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0206/01 0701125
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 101125Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0009
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0019

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000206 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS KPAO KV XG SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: PM CALLS TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT; NEW ELECTIONS 
EXPECTED MAY 11 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 146; B) BELGRADE 143 
 
BELGRADE 00000206  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica recommended on March 
8 to dissolve parliament and for new parliamentary elections be 
held.  He said this was the best solution for ending the ongoing 
government gridlock over Serbia's Kosovo policy and its path to 
Europe.  President Tadic said he would accept the government 
decision and when he gets it on Monday he is expected to call 
for new elections. Almost all other political parties agreed 
that early elections were the right move to end the impasse. 
Until the elections, in the aftermath of Kosovo's independence 
declaration, Serbia will be straddled with an impotent caretaker 
government and a possibly vicious parliamentary campaign which 
sets to define national patriots and traitors.  The immediate 
challenge for the international community will be to address 
Serbia's intentions to include Kosovo Serbs in the electorate in 
May. End Summary. 
 
 
 
PM Kostunica:  Disband Government and Call Elections 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Serbia should hold new parliamentary elections since the 
Serbian government no longer has a united Kosovo policy, Prime 
Minister Kostunica said at a March 8 emergency press conference. 
 According to Kostunica, the government has "failed to maintain 
a unified Kosovo policy" because of "contrasting opinions of the 
coalition partners regarding the resolution for determining 
Serbia's relations with the EU."   Kostunica added that the 
government did not have the unified will to explicitly state 
that Serbia would continue on the path of EU integration only 
with Kosovo. Kostunica stressed that it was impossible for the 
government to function any more because of the unwillingness of 
the members of the government to ask the EU to state its 
affirmation for Serbia's borders, including Kosovo.  Such a 
government, he said, could not last.  He said the government 
would meet on March 10 to draft a proposal to President Boris 
Tadic to dismiss the parliament and schedule new elections for 
May 11, in conjunction with already scheduled local elections. 
Kostunica explicitly stressed that he had not resigned since 
doing so could lead to parliamentary elections being held later 
than May 11. Kostunica said that he would resign if coalition 
partners did not accept the proposal to dismiss the parliament 
at the government's March 10 session. 
 
President Tadic and other Parties Agree 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) President Boris Tadic, in response to Kostunica's call, 
said he agreed new elections were the best way forward, but 
argued instead that government gridlock had been caused by 
indecision on the pace of Serbia's accession to Europe. "I 
believe that the government has no united policy over the 
European and economic perspective of Serbia and her citizens.  I 
am also convinced that we will best defend our Kosovo from 
independence precisely with membership in the European Union," 
Tadic said in his official statement on March 8. Tadic said he 
would call for new parliamentary elections once he receives the 
Government's decision on dissolution.  Mladjan Dinkic of G17 
Plus, told local media on March 8 that Kostunica's decision was 
"honorable and rational." He said G17 Plus would support the 
proposal since its ministers did not care to sit in the 
government which was leading Serbia to isolation. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U) The Serbian Radical Party said it would not oppose the 
dissolution of parliament or new elections.   "I will not take 
the measures to prevent the government to dissolve the 
parliament," Tomislav Nikolic said on March 8, stating that SRS 
was ready for new parliamentary elections.   SRS Deputy 
Aleksandar Vucic went further, highlighting the government 
crisis and accusing certain democratic parties of not defending 
Serbia.  Vucic told RTS that there was a crisis and that "there 
are political forces which do not respect territorial integrity 
of Serbia, and which are in the government"..."Kostunica's 
decision will help resolve the crisis"..."elections are good 
solution." 
 
BELGRADE 00000206  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
 
Stirrings of Possible Election Coalitions 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) Even before the Prime Minister's announcement, pro EU 
democratic parties were beginning to speak about forming a 
pro-EU united front in parliamentary elections.  Since early 
February the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Cedomir 
Jovanovic, has called for pro-EU parties to work together to put 
Serbia back on its European path.  Tadic told B92 on March 9 
that state policy was the dual preservation of Serbia's 
integrity and EU integration and encouraged all parties that 
want to follow this policy to work together.  Tadic clearly 
stated, however, that DS would not enter into a pre-election 
coalition with the LDP. DS party whip, Nada Kolundzija, said on 
March 9, that it was "too early" to say if they will form a 
coalition ahead of the May vote. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) New Serbia (NS) leader Velimir Ilic, said on March 9 
that the May parliamentary vote "will certainly see coalitions." 
Ilic listed the DSS, (with whom he is currently in coalition) 
"and possibly the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)", as potential 
partners for his party.   (Former Foreign Minister Vuk 
Draskovic's SPO failed to cross the five percent threshold in 
the January 2007 parliamentary election.)  Ilic told B92 that 
"any other coalition would be unnatural and dysfunctional" for 
his party.  Ilic said any coalition his party enters would have 
to respect the "wholeness of Serbia."  "Europe - yes, but with 
respect for Serbia, Serbia to Europe with Kosovo," Ilic told 
local media.  However, sources in democratic parties recently 
told poloffs that they would try to attract Ilic to their fold. 
 
 
Southern Serbia 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Ethnic Albanians in Presevo Valley will likely vote, 
but again face an uphill battle to win seats.  Presevo Valley 
Albanians voted in January 2007 parliamentary for the first time 
in over a decade, electing one Member of Parliament, Riza 
Halimi.  Halimi told poloff on March 10 that he expected he 
could form another parliamentary list for ethnic Albanians, but 
worried that hard-line ethnic Albanians would mount another 
boycott against these efforts.  Halimi said the parliamentary 
election's concurrence with local elections would exacerbate 
differences and hard-line parties will try to exploit Halimi's 
efforts as collaboration with Belgrade. 
 
 
 
Caretaker Government Until Elections 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) According to Kostunica, the government will continue 
to function according to the Constitution and the law in a 
reduced capacity, institutions will function and the country's 
stability will not be jeopardized in anyway.   In response to 
questions, Kostunica said Serbia is stable and there was no 
reason to believe this would impact the economy.  However, 
Serbia's stock market was down 4% on March 10, the first day of 
trading since the announcement.  It seems clear that no decisive 
initiatives are likely in the next six months. 
 
 
 
The Next Test:  Serbian Elections in Kosovo 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  (U) The Serbian government stated its intentions to ensure 
that these elections take place also in Kosovo.  Minister for 
Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic reaffirmed on March 9 that Serbs in 
Kosovo, will be able to vote in upcoming elections.  "This 
democratic act will be done in Kosovo and Metohija just as in 
the rest of Serbia, which will demonstrate the fact that Kosovo 
 
BELGRADE 00000206  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
is an inalienable part of Serbia," Samardzic told the media. 
Samardzic gave no details as to how the government intended to 
conduct the vote in Kosovo.  In previous elections, this 
responsibility fell to the Ministry of Kosovo's Coordinating 
Center (CCK). 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Serbia's government had been in gridlock since 
February's presidential elections and its dysfunction was 
further magnified after Kosovo's declaration of independence. 
Nonetheless, Kostunica's willingness to call for early 
parliamentary elections surprised most of Serbia's political 
establishment, even though they all agree the time had come for 
a new parliamentary mandate.  Kostunica and Tadic have already 
locked horns as they explain the government's collapse: 
Kostunica claims disarray on Kosovo policy, Tadic claims 
disarray on Europe.  This presages the electoral debate: 
Kostunica (and Radicals) beating the Kosovo drum, Tadic and the 
democratic camp insisting on the European path. The trick now is 
whether pro-EU parties can put aside their own internal 
squabbling and egos in order to beat the Radicals and possibly 
prevent Kostunica's DSS from crossing the 5% parliamentary 
threshold. 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Comment (con't): Kostunica, however, may once again 
find himself as kingmaker, particularly if Kosovo Serbs 
participation in the election becomes an election issue.  Real 
or perceived ethnic violence involving Serbs in Kosovo would 
have a dramatic impact on the election, with Kostunica and the 
Radicals eager to exploit such developments.  Post expects a 
vicious campaign with each side painting one another as a 
patriot or traitor to the Kosovo cause.  Government will remain 
ineffective in the interim with Kostunica remaining as caretaker 
PM who will use the time to use the one issue of importance to 
him, Kosovo, to weaken his rivals. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment (con't): Democratic leaders will doubtless 
call on the EU for help.  Some have already weighed in with the 
Ambassador for support in "getting something from the EU," be it 
an SAA offer, Schengen status, or infrastructure money - 
something to demonstrate tangible benefits of EU accession. 
This election won't be about us, and our role should be 
accordingly discreet.  Our interests are best served if the 
European path, rather than Kosovo, becomes the center of this 
election.  End Comment. 
MUNTER