VZCZCXRO9389
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0406 0791423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191423Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1323
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000406 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/DEMOPOLOUS/YERGER 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PROSPECT OF HIZBALLAH WAR WITH ISRAEL PROMPTS SOME 
LEBANESE TO PREPARE FOR THE WORST 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Rumors of an imminent Hizballah-Israeli war have spread 
throughout various regions of Lebanon, namely southern Lebanon, the 
Biqa', and the southern suburbs of Beirut.  These rumors have led 
many to prepare themselves for such a war:  renewing their 
passports, stocking up on food, applying for visas, and renting 
houses in "safer" areas.  The presence of the USS Cole off the 
Lebanese territorial waters earlier this month and rumors of a Saudi 
decision to evacuate its citizens from Lebanon augmented the feeling 
of fear among the Lebanese.  Some Amcits have also voiced their 
concerns of an imminent conflict. 
 
REPORTS OF PREPARATIONS 
IN CASE OF WAR 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The Lebanese press recently has been reporting stories of 
Lebanese citizens' preparations for what is perceived as an imminent 
Hizballah war with Israel, namely in southern Lebanon and the Biqa'. 
 Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah's recent threat of an open war and 
Hizballah's expected retaliation for the assassination of one of its 
leaders, Imad Mugniyeh, as well as the overall precarious political 
situation in Lebanon prompted some jittery Lebanese to prepare their 
passports in order to flee the country or rent apartments in "safe" 
areas. 
 
¶3.  (U) The Associated France Press (AFP) quoted Lina Melhem, a 
resident of the southern suburbs of Beirut as saying, "I renewed my 
passport and those of my three children because I'm scared something 
is going to happen."  Mohammed, a resident of the southern village 
of Qlayle, which was heavily bombed during the July 2006 war, told 
the AFP that he was looking to rent an apartment in Aley, east of 
Beirut.  Furthermore, in the Hizballah stronghold in eastern Biqa', 
residents have been looking for houses in predominantly Christian 
areas, which they deem more protected from potential Israeli air 
strikes. 
 
¶4.  (U) The AFP also reported that an official at the passport 
office in Baalback said he has seen a 30 percent surge in the 
numbers of passports issued in recent weeks.  Another security 
official in the southern town of Tyre told the AFP that his office 
was receiving up to 400 requests a day for passport renewals, 
compared to 75 previously. 
 
¶5.  (U) Daily al-Akhbar, a pro-opposition newspaper, reported that 
Lebanese working with UNIFIL have been asked to prepare documents to 
facilitate their expeditious departure from Lebanon, insinuating an 
imminent conflict.  Press also reported that UNIFIL bolstered its 
positions along the eastern sector of its operations and installed 
six security towers in a 500-meter area.  These security towers 
surround the Lebanese part of the village of Ghajar, bordering 
Israel.  (Note:  Charge will meet UNIFIL Force Commander MG Graziano 
this week and will follow up on these reports.  End note.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Yassine Jaber, a Shia MP from the southern town of 
Nabatiyeh, told Polstaff March 5 that those in his hometown have 
been renting houses in Sidon and Jezzine because they believe these 
areas are safer.  Additionally, 
Beirut residents have rented houses in Mount Lebanon, specifically 
in Broumanna, Faraya, and other pre-dominantly Christian areas. 
Afaf Ghaddar, manager at a business company called Credit Card 
Services, told Polstaff that the company has set up a back up office 
in Jordan in case of a war in Lebanon.  Ghaddar added that the 
company is ready to continue providing its services to its clients 
from its Jordan offices. 
 
AMCITS VOICE CONCERN 
OF IMMINENT WAR 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Some Amcits have also voiced their concerns of an imminent 
war.  Conoff reported that the American Citizens Services section 
has received increased calls indicating that some Amcits are much 
more concerned about the situation than they were a few months ago. 
Furthermore, he noted that more and more Amcits are asking questions 
about how they can sponsor family members to come to the U.S.; these 
Amcits have generally told Conoff they plan on returning to the U.S. 
within the next few months. 
 
SISON