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FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1264
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RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2515
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RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL//CCPA PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA - SOMERSET, NEA/PPD, R, INR/R/MR 
INR-PARENT 
SECDEF FOR OASD/PA 
LONDON/POL 
PARIS/POL 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC 
USCENTCOM FOR CCPA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC KPAO PREF PREL KISL KPAL LE
SUBJECT:  Lebanon: Media Reaction, March 11, 2008 
 
 
Atmospherics: 
------------ 
 
Most media outlets highlighted Washington's reaction to Speaker 
Berri's sixteenth postponement of the presidential election session. 
 A few media outlets, however, continued to express optimism about 
the possibility of electing General Sleiman as president before the 
Arab Summit. 
 
Arab nationalist As-Safir carried an editorial that contained 
information leaked by the Hizballah leadership. The information 
seemed to be an attempt to alay Lebanese fears that either Hizballah 
or Israel will launch a war in the foreseeable future.  The 
editorial cited a source in the Hizballah leadership who explained 
Hizballah's strategy as follows, "We will not declare war, and we 
will not take the initiative and launch a war.  It is not our hobby 
to open military fronts or involve ourselves in wars, but at the 
same time we are ready to defend Lebanon if Israel tries to attack 
it again."  The same source also cited several reasons for 
concluding that Israel will not launch a war against Lebanon 
either. 
 
Selected Headlines: 
------------------- 
 
"U.S. Slams 16th Delay of Election as 'Unacceptable'" English 
language, Beirut based The Daily Star 
 
"Optimism About The Possibility of Electing a President Before the 
Summit Despite Decision to Postpone Today's Presidential Election 
Session" Centrist Al-Anwar 
 
"Washington Denounces Postponement and Tehran Denounces 
'Interference'" Independent Al-Balad 
 
 
Block Quotes: 
------------- 
 
"Hizballah Believes that a War is Unlikely Even Though It is Ready 
for it; For these Reasons, No Israeli War Is Expected In The 
Foreseeable Future," an editorial by Imad Marmal (known for his 
links to Hizballah) in Arab nationalist As-Safir (3/11): 
 
"Will there be an Israeli war against Lebanon soon?  This question 
is on the minds of many people, and is taking a lot of their time. 
This question is more important to them than whether a Lebanese 
president will be elected soon or not.  Obviously, the answer to 
this question can be a series of interpretations and probabilities. 
...It was clear the last several weeks that many Lebanese citizens, 
who were obsessed with worry over the possibility of a new war, 
behaved as if a war is definitely coming:  some prepared their 
passports and others rented houses away from what they assumed to be 
the military front.  ...Some believe that the deployment of U.S. 
military ships off the Lebanese Coast intensified this fearful 
atmosphere.  ...Others truly believe that Israel will never accept 
its failure in 2006 and will launch a new war to re-balance the 
situation with Hizballah.  Are all above indications, however, 
enough?  Many observers believe that there will be no war in the 
foreseeable future.  ...Hizballah, whoseleadership has been involved 
in a long discussion over the possibility of war, also believes that 
a war is unlikely.  Obviously, this does not mean that Hizballah is 
not ready if a war erupts.  The strategy of the Hizballah Party is 
clear: 'We will not declare war and we will not take the initiative 
and launch a war.  It is not our hobby to open military fronts or 
involve ourselves in wars, but at the same time we are ready to 
defend Lebanon if Israel tries to attack it again.'  . . . Hizballah 
(has) completed its 'defensive preparations.'  The last two speeches 
by Hizballah Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, can also be placed 
within this framework ...  A source in the Hizballah leadership 
believes that the decision to launch a war is extremely complicated. 
 Israel will not find it easy to take such a decision despite the 
fact that it really needs to erase its failure in the 2006 war. 
...The same source expressed the belief that Israel will not take 
the risk of launching a war...and clarified that the expected 
 
BEIRUT 00000365  002 OF 002 
 
 
response by Hizballah to avenge Mughniyeh's assassination does not 
mean that Hizballah has taken a decision to launch a war. 
...Finally, the same source cited the following reasons making 
Hizballah confident that Israel will not launch a war soon:  1) 
Israel is not confident that if it launches a war against Hizballah 
it will succeed; 2) Israel has lost its war against Gaza; 3) the 
element of surprise can no longer be used because all parties are 
prepared for war; 4) the schools in Israel are continuing 
normally..." 
 
Sison