VZCZCXYZ2534
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLB #0337/01 0651411
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051411Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHNC/AMEMBASSY NICOSIA PRIORITY 3120
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1201
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000337 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PLEASE PASS TO SES-O/CMS AND TO JO-ANN HUNTER 
CA/OCS/ACS. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AEMR CASC CY AMGT LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ESTIMATED NUMBERS OF POTENTIAL EVACUEES 
FOR BEIRUT NONCOMBATANT EVACUATION OPERATIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) In 2006 the USG evacuated approximately 15,000 
American Citizens and their families from Lebanon during 
hostilities between Israel and the Lebanon-based group 
Hizballah.  Embassy Beirut recognizes the importance of 
accurately forecasting the number of Americans in the country 
as it allows us and others to anticipate how many Americans 
might participate in any future evacuation.  We have updated 
the F-77 document used to make this estimate (NOTE: the F-77 
can be found on the unclassified intranet at 
http://ses.state.gov/f77-posts/viewreports.as px and on the 
classified SIPRnet at: 
http://ses.state.sgov.gov/f77/viewreports.asp x  END NOTE). 
 
¶2. (SBU) We estimate that there are 59,400 U.S. citizens in 
Lebanon.  Attempting to come up with an accurate number of 
Americans in Lebanon is a difficult task; the vast majority 
of Americans in the country also hold Lebanese citizenship; 
this means that the Lebanese government does not count them. 
The GOL provides Embassy a breakdown by month of Americans 
that enter the country on their American passports, and from 
these data we estimate that the number of Americans who are 
in the country claiming only American citizenship at any 
given time is between 3500 and 7000 
depending on the season.  However, an informal survey of 
American citizens that came into the Embassy for routine 
services revealed that the number of dual nationals 
outnumbered those who held only a U.S. Passport by a ratio of 
18 to 1.  Our estimate of 59,400 citizens is based on this 
and is significantly higher than previous estimates.  It is, 
however, important to note that not all American citizens in 
the country would participate in an evacuation. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) To provide logistics coordinators with an easier 
measure of potential evacuees we have created a number of 
scenarios that might necessitate an evacuation along with 
low, mid-range, and high estimates as to the number of 
evacuees.  The number of evacuees we have listed is meant to 
be the total number of evacuees; as such, it includes not 
only American citizens in Lebanon, but their family members 
and third country nationals. 
 
 
Situation One: Limited Attack from Outside Neighbor 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Possible Scenario:  Hizballah forces provoke 
Israeli forces who, in turn, conduct military operations in 
Lebanon.  Israeli attacks are targeted at southern Lebanon 
and the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as targets of 
military value elsewhere in Lebanon (supply routes, airport 
etc.).  Ths would be not unlike the Israeli attack of 
JulyAugust 2006. 
 
Estimated Number of Evacuees: 
LOW: 13,000 
MID:  23,000 
HIGH: 28,000 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Rationale:  The number of evacuees would likely be 
higher than in 2006 due to heightened concern among those in 
Lebanon that a second Israeli attack would be more brutal 
than the first.  Furthermore, in 2006 thousands of people 
left the country with commercial carriers at their own 
expense; many left through Syria after hearing that they 
would be charged a substantial fee to be evacuated by the 
USG.  All charges for the 2006 evacuation were eventually 
forgiven, so the assumption now among Amcits -- despite 
efforts to convince them of the contrary -- is that the USG 
will arrange for future evacuations free of charge. 
 
 
Situation Two:  Civil War - Limited in Scope 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Possible Scenario:  The political impasse in 
Lebanon grows and tensions between various political 
parties/religious groups reach a breaking point.  Violence 
between the factions escalates and members of individual 
groups only feel safe in neighborhoods controlled by their 
faction.  A defensive civil war ensues where groups fight to 
retain control of their neighborhoods. 
 
Estimated Number of Evacuees: 
 
LOW: 16,000 
MID:  28,000 
HIGH: 36,000 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Rationale:  Even a low intensity civil war would 
likely affect a greater number of people in the country than 
an incursion by a foreign power.  For many, a civil war 
scenario would raise memories of Lebanon's 15-year long civil 
war 1975-90, in contrast to the month long 2006 
Hizballah-Israel war.  With the expectation that there might 
not be a speedy end to the violence, Americans would feel 
compelled to leave -- even if they owned property or had 
other ties to Lebanon. 
 
 
Situation Three:  Civil War - Widespread in Scope 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Possible Scenario:  The political impasse leads to 
a situation where Hizballah and their allies feel they can 
seize control of the country.  Violence becomes widespread, 
with the more heavily armed Hizballah forces conducting 
incursions into other neighborhoods.  Christian neighborhoods 
become divided based on political differences and violence is 
no longer between communities but within them.  It becomes an 
"offensive civil war" with internally displaced persons and 
casualties numbering in the thousands. 
 
Estimated Number of Evacuees: 
LOW: 20,000 
MID:  32,000 
HIGH: 63,000 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Rationale:  We assess that a widespread civil war 
with thousands of casualties is not likely to occur.  While 
there are tensions between political and religious groups in 
Lebanon, none is advocating annihilation of the other. 
However, if this unlikely situation was to occur, the number 
of American Citizens and their families in need of evacuation 
could be substantial. 
 
 
SISON