VZCZCXRO0374
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0228/01 0801224
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201224Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1115
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 000228 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E AND AF/RSA MBITTRICK 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO 
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR DAO 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT:  SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT ON ANJOUAN 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Actions Requested:  Post recommends the Department issue a 
statement setting the record straight on the Anjouan problem in the 
Comoros.  Suggested points in para 4.  Post also recommends the 
Department pursue efforts to support Comoros' request that the UN 
Security Council not take up this issue.  End Action Requests. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  At a recent press conference, RSA Foreign Minister 
Dlamini-Zuma sounded much like the lawyer for the defense in "Bacar 
vs. Union of the Comoros."  Her characterization of the Anjouan 
crisis is generous with regard to renegade Colonel Mohamed Bacar and 
suggests half or more of the blame is with the 
democratically-elected Union President Ahmed Sambi.  This view is 
inconsistent with that of the African Union and all other friends of 
the Comoros. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Worse, a Globe and Mail article March 20 was entitled 
"African Union to Stage Rare Coup in Comoros."  The article quotes 
Bacar, but not Sambi, and manages to get it wrong every possible 
way. 
 
Points For Press Statement 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Post does not suggest a defensive or direct reply to these 
unhelpful statements.  However, we recommend making clear that: 
 
--  Diplomatic negotiations have been exhaustive and fruitless in 
dealing with Anjouan's Colonel Bacar; 
 
--  A February 27 mission to Anjouan offered an ultimatum, including 
peaceful ways out of the impasse without violence, which Bacar 
rejected; 
 
--  The United States supports the democratically elected President 
of the Union of the Comoros, President Ahmed Sambi.  We support 
African Union efforts to restore order in the Comoros.  We support 
unity in the Comoros. 
 
--  African Union support to President Sambi to restore unity in the 
Comoros is needed and appropriate.  Colonel Bacar has closed all 
avenues to resolving this crisis without military intervention. 
 
U.S. Support For The Union of the Comoros 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (SBU)  The Department is actively trying to respond to Tanzania's 
request for logistics support for their mission to restore unity in 
the Comoros.  The Comorans are very appreciative of the very 
attempt, even if ultimately not successful (for lack of time).  Our 
Defense Attach and Union counterparts held a small ceremony March 
20 to note the delivery of 5,000 lbs. of medical supplies donated by 
an NGO and shipped by the United States. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  In addition, a clear statement by the Department 
Spokesman setting the record straight would be a tremendous help to 
the Comorans.  President Sambi would also appreciate our diplomatic 
efforts to address his concern about the Comoros issue being raised 
at the UN Security Council, rather than leaving it with the AU. 
Comoran Foreign Minister Jaffar on March 18 explicitly requested US 
diplomatic assistance to turn off any effort to bring this issue to 
the UNSC. 
 
Statement and Article Texts 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (U) For reference Post passes text of Dlamini-Zuma's remarks and 
the Globe and Mail article below. 
 
BEGIN TEXT: 
Notes Following Briefing To Media By Foreign Minister Nkosazana 
Dlamini Zuma And Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, 
Diplomatic Guesthouse, Pretoria, Tuesday 18 March 2008 
Question:  If I may ask you Minister, the question of the Comoros is 
a burning issue at the moment.  You've played a central role in 
that.  The clashes overnight, the fact the AU is moving forces in. 
Is there an alternative?  What is the situation, I'm asking in 
particular if there is an alternative to the full intervention of 
the AU, in other words the military solution? 
 
Answer:  (Minister Dlamini Zuma) Thank you.  As you know that the AU 
 
ANTANANARI 00000228  002 OF 003 
 
 
had appointed a committee to deal with the Comoros since 1997.  And 
the Comoros was a very unstable country.  It had almost 20 coups in 
almost as many years.  And the AU appointed a committee when there 
was a problem of secession and a combination also of a coup.  The AU 
committee has worked very hard, spent many hours, resources.  And 
indeed it had a lot to show for it because since 1998 there probably 
hasn't been a coup.  A foundation has been laid for stability. There 
was a Fomboni Agreement, the constitution was amended.  There was a 
new union constitution and the islands were then declared autonomous 
islands with their own constitution, with a kind of shared power 
between the union and the islands. 
As you would recall that this crisis stems from an election which 
was supposed to take place on the 10th of June or May last year, 
which was going to be supervised by the AU.  All three islands were 
going to have elections according to their laws that all three 
islands should have simultaneous elections.  The AU forces were 
supervising the elections.  On the 8th of June, two days before the 
elections, the president issued a decree postponing the elections in 
one of the islands, Anjouan.  And of-course that came through while 
we were there, the AU forces and the AU special envoy were 
represented there.  We also just heard that a decree had been issued 
to postpone the elections.  Our forces were on the ground in Anjouan 
when that decree was made. 
But to cut a long story short, the Anjouanese went ahead with the 
elections, arguing that there was no consultation that the elections 
are postponed.  But nevertheless they went ahead.  The AU and the 
constitutional court of Comoros did not recognize those elections. 
And therefore there has been a call to have new elections.  And the 
real contest is that the AU committee did say there has to be new 
elections, because if the constitutional court of the country has 
said there has to be new elections, there should be new elections. 
But the same committee has recognized that there are problems of 
governance and some constitutional interpretations which are 
creating problems.  And that there should be elections but also that 
there should be an effective address of this governance and 
constitutional issues. 
The real problem is what comes first.  The Anjouanese authorities 
say the discussion should come first because they believe that even 
the postponement of the elections is linked to these governance 
issues.  And then the elections should come later.  The rest say 
there should be elections first and then the discussions later. 
That's really what is at stake here.  And of-course as you say, 
there are countries there that are ready to go in and solve the 
problem militarily. 
Our belief is that there is still a possibility of solving this 
diplomatically.  Because it is to some extent unusual to go 
militarily into a place where there is no violence; where there is 
no loss of life; where there is no social unrest.  We think it's 
possible to solve this diplomatically, but of-course we can't. 
There are countries which have heeded the call of the president of 
Comoros to assist him to solve the problem militarily.  So that is 
what is happening.  But as a country we believe that it could have 
still been done diplomatically.  It's a small thing.  Even the 
president of the Comoros accepts that there are governance issues, 
there are constitutional issues that need to be resolved. 
The real war is about whether the discussion comes first and then 
elections, or elections first and then discussions later.  The 
Anjouanese authorities have given a date, they've said let's have a 
discussion and have the elections by May, which we thought could be 
a basis for then solving this diplomatically.  Because they have 
expressed not only a willingness to have elections, but they have 
even said the elections could be in May.  And this period in between 
could then be used for discussions.  That's what we think. Thanks. 
END TEXT 
 
Globe and Mail Article 
 
BEGIN TEXT 
African Union to stage rare coup in Comoros 
After long inaction in Zimbabwe and Darfur, member states are 
looking for an easy win to show progress to democracy, observer says 
 
STEPHANIE NOLEN 
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail 
March 19, 2008 at 4:40 AM EDT 
JOHANNESBURG - Troops are preparing an amphibious invasion of one 
island in the tiny East African archipelago of the Comoros to oust 
its leader in the name of defending democracy on the orders of the 
African Union. 
It's a startling move for the AU, whose member states have 
 
ANTANANARI 00000228  003 OF 003 
 
 
consistently refused to take action on issues such as Robert 
Mugabe's tyrannical rule of Zimbabwe or the Sudanese government's 
backing of militias in Darfur, always citing the concept of national 
sovereignty. 
"People will be asking, 'Why is the AU invading a country that is 
not strategically or economically or politically important?' And 
what is the difference between the situation in Comoros and that in 
Zimbabwe or Chad?" said Chrysantus Ayangafac, a researcher with the 
Direct Conflict Prevention Program at the Institute for Security 
Studies in Addis Ababa. 
"But AU success in Comoros is going to give them some capital to 
say, 'We are solving some problems, tackling illegitimacy on the 
continent.' And the Comoros is a much easier animal to hunt [than 
Zimbabwe]. But if the AU fails, it doesn't harm their reputation: 
they will sweep it under the carpet." 
The Comoros - a federation of three islands in the Indian Ocean 
between Tanzania on the mainland and Madagascar - has a population 
of about 700,000. Each island has a president and parliament, which 
sit beneath an overarching federal government. 
An estimated 1,500 soldiers from Senegal, Tanzania, Sudan and Libya 
are amassing on the island of Moheli, preparing to take down 
President Mohammed Bacar, a former chief of police who is refusing 
to cede power on the neighbouring island of Anjouan. The AU has been 
asked to intervene by the federal government, after months of 
sanctions and negotiations have made no progress in ousting Mr. 
Bacar. France, the former colonial power in the Comoros, is 
providing logistical support to the planned invasion. 
"We are outraged," Mr. Bacar told the Associated Press yesterday, 
saying the AU urges dialogue in other countries, "but with us, they 
only speak of force." 
Mr. Bacar, who controls the island's economy, has the support of its 
business elite, but has cracked down harshly on human-rights groups, 
the news media and all perceived opponents. He has the loyalty of 
Anjouan's force of about 500 well-armed gendarmes and a private 
militia, which roughly matches the troop strength of the federal 
force, which is why a military intervention requires outside 
involvement. 
The driving force behind the invasion, which caught most 
Africa-watchers off-guard, appears to be Tanzania, which has the 
strongest ties of any African state to the Comoros. Tanzanian 
President Jakaya Kikwete, current chair of the AU, is acting on a 
request from Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, the President of the Comoros 
Union, the supergovernment. 
South African President Thabo Mbeki, the single most influential 
player among AU leaders, is leaning on the African Union to hold off 
on the invasion, which was slated to have occurred last Sunday 
before Mr. Mbeki intervened, insisting that all diplomatic avenues 
had not been exhausted. 
The Tanzanians yesterday reiterated their intention to proceed, but 
it is not clear if they are defying Mr. Mbeki, or simply seeking to 
play hardball with Mr. Bacar. 
The Comoros have been plagued by political instability since its 
independence from France in 1975; there have been more than 19 coups 
on the tiny archipelago in that time. 
The roots of this crisis lie in election held in June last year, 
when each island had a poll for its resident parliament (the federal 
presidency rotates among them in a complex power-sharing system). 
Before the vote, the federal government said Mr. Bacar, who came to 
power in a 2001 coup, had to step down, having served one term. He 
refused. 
Mr. Mbeki said earlier this week that Mr. Bacar had promised to hold 
a new election in May, and he accepted that as a basis for a 
solution. Certainly, Mr. Bacar has shown new willingness to deal, as 
the troops line up on the nearby island. 
But the federal government says the time for talking has passed, and 
that Mr. Bacar must either flee or face charges of crimes against 
humanity for his repression of opponents; an interim ruling council 
will take control after the invasion and a new election will be 
planned, it says. 
But Mr. Ayangafac warned of an Iraq-like situation that could 
backfire badly for the AU. "We might see a situation where the 
military battle is won but there is no peace. Does the AU have the 
political and diplomatic resilience to stay to win peace if this 
continues for one or two or five years? And where are they going to 
get the money for post conflict reconstruction and development?" 
END TEXT 
 
MARQUARDT