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OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0212 0771406
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171406Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1095
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000212 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E AND AF/RSA MBITTRICK 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO 
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR DAO 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT:  "RAIDS" ESCALATE TO ARMED CONFLICT ON ANJOUAN 
 
REF:  ANTAN 200 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Contacts in the Comoros report a Union Army (AND) "raid" 
on Anjouan beginning March 15 has turned into a series of battles. 
Having reportedly freed eight prisoners and taken two minor 
casualties, part of the AND landing force returned to its staging 
point in Moheli.  However, a small AND contingent appears to have 
remained on Anjouan.  This group narrowly avoided an ambush March 
16, helped by a pro-Union Anjouanese civilian informant.  According 
to our source, with this warning the AND forces attacked the 
ambushing elements of Bacar's militia, killing five.  No casualties 
were reported on the AND side in this battle; as of this writing, it 
appears some number of AND forces remain in Anjouan. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The same Embassy contact reported that Union President 
Sambi signed March 17 an official decree authorizing the AND to 
launch the military option. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Embassy Defense Attache arrived in Moheli, in the Comoros, 
to meet with AND Commander Colonel Salimou.  The DATT confirmed the 
details of the March 15 raid, but did not yet have information to 
confirm the report of the averted ambush.  DATT noted the March 15 
raid on Anjouan was at least the third such operation, following 
commando missions on March 10 and 12.  Based on DATT reporting and 
other Embassy contacts, the AND has captured up to a total of 30 of 
Bacar's militia, and has sustained two wounded. 
 
Mbeki and Kiwete 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (U)  With appreciation for reporting from Pretoria and Dar, among 
other posts, on the Anjouan issue, we note an interesting back and 
forth in the media between Presidents Mbeki and Kiwete.  A March 17 
Cape Times article, amidst confused analysis, reported, "President 
Thabo Mbeki has now apparently averted an imminent invasion of 
Anjouan by federal Comoros government troops backed by an AU force, 
and has persuaded AU (and Tanzania) President Jakaya Kikwete to 
consider Bacar's offer to hold elections." 
 
¶5. (SBU)  A March 14 article on Independent Online (www.iol.co.za), 
offered an opposite take on events from the Cape Times piece, more 
closely reflecting reality as we see it.  In it, Tanzanian Foreign 
Minister Membe is quoted as saying, "There were many opportunities 
for a negotiated settlement, but Bacar squandered all those chances. 
 He is a liar."  Confident of swift victory with limited casualties, 
FM Membe further said in OIL, "the (military) process is now 
irreversible." We defer to Pretoria and Dar to interpret what 
Presidents Mbeki and Kikwete actually are thinking. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Foreign Minister Jaffar called Ambassador on March 13, in 
the wake of the first reports of Mbeki's statements from Mauritius 
supporting Bacar's "promise" of island elections in May, to say that 
the Union would continue on its present course toward invasion and 
to reiterate his request for US help; he clearly saw Bacar's gambit 
as a ruse and Mbeki's reply as naive and unhelpful. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Two Malagasy newspapers, Midi and L'Express, ran articles 
on the Comoros situation March 17.  Midi quoted Union Spokesman and 
Education Minister Said Bakar, "It is no longer possible to reopen 
negotiations with this man (Bacar).  We have launched an operation 
to restore order in Anjouan by military force.  This operation will 
follow its course to the end."  L'Express quoted an unnamed Union 
official who confirmed, "the AND launched an operation on Anjouan to 
free political prisoners, leading to an exchange of fire in which 
two Union soldiers were wounded." 
 
MARQUARDT