VZCZCXYZ6105
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAN #0179 0661413
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 061413Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1045
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0988

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000179 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
ADDIS FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KDEM PHUM PINR CN
SUBJECT:  ISLANDS TENSELY AWAIT MILITARY ACTION 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 157 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1.  (U) The three islands in the Union of the Comoros tensely await 
impending military action.  African Union (AU) Representative Mourad 
Taiati told international reporters in Moroni on March 4 that, 
"Today, everyone has taken our [AU] position. [Mohamed Bacar] is 
isolated and the military operation is an accomplished fact."  He 
explained that a "final planning meeting" will be held on March 8 in 
Dar-es-Salaam to discuss the assembling of troops and logistical 
support from Tanzania, Senegal, Sudan and Libya "under the AU 
banner."  He said French transport will be used for some 200 
Tanzanian AU soldiers already in the Comoros since mid-2007, while 
additional AU troops ready to support the Comoran Union Army "should 
arrive within the next few days." [NOTE: Embassy sources report the 
French have only agreed to transport AU soldiers between the islands 
of Grande Comore and Moheli, not to Anjouan.  END NOTE.] 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Media sources report, and sources on the ground confirm, a 
ship scheduled to supply fuel and food to Union Army soldiers poised 
for action at the staging base on Moheli was destroyed by a fire in 
the port of Moroni in the early morning of March 2.  The 
circumstances surrounding the fire are unclear, but the rumor mill 
in Moroni suspects supporters of former President Azali and/or 
Mohamed Bacar set the boat on fire, possibly to hinder operations 
against Anjouan.  It is highly unlikely the Comoran gendarmes will 
ever find the perpetrator, if indeed the fire was set on purpose, 
but at this point the greatest casualty seems to be the morale of 
Union Army soldiers in Moheli.  Several sources report these young 
soldiers, who have never seen combat, have endured difficult living 
conditions for the past month with no clear end in sight.  They 
remember that soldiers captured in the last failed landing in 
Anjouan in 1997 were raped in prison, and the videotaped footage was 
shown on Comoran television as a warning.  Bacar's men have 
threatened the same treatment for Union Army soldiers who attempt a 
landing on Anjouan.  News of the destroyed resupply ship only 
aggravated already sinking morale. 
 
¶3.  (U) The Comoran Foundation for Human Rights (FCDH) continues to 
circulate information about the victims of Mohamed Bacar's crackdown 
on opposition in Anjouan.  The FCDH claims not a day goes by without 
the arrival in Moheli of wounded victims fleeing Anjouan and seeking 
medical treatment.  FCDH's most recent report tells of a man 
incapable of speaking from the blows received during his six days in 
detention on Anjouan; another man arrived in Moheli with both arms 
and one leg fractured after his detention. 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT:  Given AU Representative Taiati's comment about 
forces assembled under the "AU banner," it seems the AU has resolved 
the question of whether AU military support will go ahead under an 
official AU mandate or unofficial AU approval.  END COMMENT. 
CASEBEER