VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0439/01 0860853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260853Z MAR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8550
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8078
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9332

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: AFTERMATH OF TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
news coverage March 26 on the aftermath of Taiwan's presidential 
election last Saturday, including the caretaker government's plans 
before president-elect Ma Ying-jeou's inauguration on May 20; 
possible personnel arrangements for the new cabinet and the defeated 
DPP, respectively; the White House's and State Department's 
responses to Ma's wish to visit the U.S.; and the U.S. government's 
expectations for future cross-Strait relations, as spelled out by 
State Department Taiwan Affairs Coordinator Douglas Spelman Tuesday. 
 Also, almost all papers reported on a Pentagon announcement Monday, 
which said it had mistakenly shipped non-nuclear ballistic missile 
components to Taiwan in 2006, thinking they were helicopter 
batteries that Taiwan had ordered. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" said that both sides across the 
Strait are likely to deal with economic issues first after Ma takes 
the helm on May 20, while political issues will remain unresolved 
because of their complexity and sensitivity.  An op-ed in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times," written by a 
western writer based in Taipei, discussed the developments of 
cross-Strait relations in the wake of Ma's inauguration.  The 
article said "armament/disarmament in the Taiwan Strait is becoming 
increasingly intertwined with the greater dynamics of the regional 
arms race, pitting the U.S. and its allies in Northeast Asia against 
China."  A "Taipei Times" editorial, on the other hand, called on Ma 
to push for a Cabinet proposal seeking a legislative resolution on 
Taiwan's bid to join the UN.  End summary. 
 
A) "It Bodes Well for [Future] Economic [Interactions] but Ill for 
Political [Relations] across the Taiwan Strait" 
 
Barry Chen, a professor at the Graduate Institute of American 
Studies of Chinese Culture University and a visiting scholar at 
Beijing Union University, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple 
Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (3/26): 
 
"Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory and the failed passage of the UN 
referenda, with which Beijing was highly concerned, have greatly 
inspired the cross-Strait peaceful development roadmap advocated by 
[Chinese President] Hu Jintao.  [Beijing's] major burdens and doubts 
have been removed, even though Beijing's official reaction has been 
low-profile and cautious.  Beijing is waiting to see what Ma 
Ying-jeou will announce in his May 20 inauguration speech and pay 
attention to staff appointments on Ma's national security team, 
including mainland affairs, foreign affairs and defense, then make a 
formal and complete response.  However,  Beijing has noticed that Ma 
Ying-jeou has said several times in local and international press 
conferences that he will use the 1992 consensus as the basis for 
cross-Strait negotiations, and both sides [across the Strait] will 
have different interpretations of the one-China principle.  [Ma's] 
remarks at least have reduced Beijing's worries.  The circumstances 
are definitely better than the time when Chen Shui-bian was elected 
in 2000. ... 
 
"Ma Ying-jeou's first priority after taking office is to deal with 
the issues of the economy and people's livelihood.  The Chinese 
Communists' 17th [CPC National Congress] has also emphasized that 
social [matters] and people's livelihood problems are the first 
administrative priorities.  As a result, both sides across the 
Strait will enter into an interactive model of "economy first; 
politics later."  It is unlikely that Ma's ideas can come to 
fruition in his initiatives in the short or mid-term, including 
terminating the hostile footing, peaceful negotiations, a 
"ceasefire" in foreign affairs, and establishing military 
confidence-building measures.  It is because these issues are all 
wrapped up in complicated issues such as the constitution, 
sovereignty and territory, national character, security and 
interests.  Each sides [across the Strait] has its own calculation 
and its own internal pressures.  How could it be easy? ... 
 
"... History is giving both authorities a window of opportunity. 
[We] should seize the opportunity.  However, a gradual but not rapid 
or impetuous way is safer and sounder than a swift way for courting 
success.  It also assures long-term peace." 
 
B) "Washington Celebrates, but Others Are Fretful" 
 
¶J. Michael Cole, a writer based in Taipei, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (3/26): 
 
"Given the recent tensions between President Chen Shui-bian and US 
President George W. Bush and the US State Department's vociferous 
opposition to Taiwan's referendums on joining the UN, if does not 
come as a surprise that Washington would welcome the win on Saturday 
by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou, who has 
been portrayed as less of a 'troublemaker' than Chen or Democratic 
ELECTION 
 
Progressive Party candidate Frank Hsieh.  But no sooner had the last 
ballot been counted than a handful of US conservatives were raising 
the specter of some rapprochement between Taipei and Beijing (an 
'unhealthy pro-China' stance,' one called it).  Among them and 
responsible for the above quote was Dan Blumenthal, a former 
Pentagon official, who questioned what the KMT win would mean to the 
US-Taiwan alliance.  He recommended that Bush's legacy to Taiwan be 
ensuring that Taiwan receives the F-16 fighter aircraft it has been 
prevented from buying, as well as diesel submarines, among other 
items. 
 
"What this shows us, less than 24 hours after the vote, is that the 
conservatives in Washington do not see the prospect of less tension 
in the Taiwan Strait favorably, as this could threaten:  one, the US 
alliance with Taiwan, in which the latter is increasingly starting 
to look (at least from Beijing's perspective) like it is part of the 
master plan to contain and encircle China to ensure that it does not 
reach regional, of not global, primacy, and two, those in the US 
defense establishment who stand to profit from continued weapons 
sales to Taiwan. ...  Blumenthal and others may not be wrong in 
their assessment that a Ma presidency is unlikely to change much in 
the Taiwan Strait conflict -- I agree with that position -- but 
their immediate reflex to worry about arms sales even before 
attempts at some form of peace talks have been made shows where 
their true priorities lie. ... 
 
"What this means is that armament/disarmament in the Taiwan Strait 
is becoming increasingly intertwined with the greater dynamics of 
the regional arms race pitting the US and its allies in Northeast 
Asia against China.  The more Taiwan is seen to be part of the 
encirclement of China (much as the 'new democracy' Kosovo, which, 
now that Washington will be selling it weapons, will be part of the 
encirclement of Russia), the more difficult it will be resolve the 
question of Taiwan peacefully, regardless of who is in office in 
Taipei," 
 
C) "Ma Should Heed EU Lawmakers' Call" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (3/26): 
 
"Last Wednesday, 100 members of the European Parliament reiterated 
their support for Taiwan's bid to join the UN.  The news was largely 
overshadowed by election fever in the final days of campaigning, 
despite the strength of the statement in the "European Voice," an 
independent newspaper that documents EU developments, and the fact 
that Taiwan was preparing to vote on two referendum proposals 
concerning UN membership.  The parliamentarians went further than 
acknowledging the long-ignored fact that Beijing's seat at the UN 
does not represent Taiwan's people and interests.  Their statement 
said Taiwan has never been controlled by the People's Republic of 
China and that it is a sovereign country. ... 
 
"The statement by EU lawmakers reflected the principles that the 
countries they represent so often tout -- equal representation, an 
integral aspect of democracy and human rights.  The governments of 
those same countries, meanwhile, remain silent on the issue of 
Taiwan, or else toe Beijing's line.  Taiwan cannot afford to echo 
that silence.  The nation has missed a chance to make itself heard 
and now must focus on minimizing the damage.  It must not leave this 
heartening statement by EU parliamentarians unanswered.  As 
president-elect Ma Ying-jeou nears his inauguration date, he should 
consider how to make up for this loss.  The cards are stacked in 
Ma's favor.  He will have an absolute majority in the legislature 
ready to back any Cabinet proposal.  And in light of statements he 
and his party made in the months leading to the election, failing to 
take action could only be interpreted as duplicitous. 
 
"Topping the agenda for Ma becoming president should be a Cabinet 
proposal for a legislative resolution underscoring what EU 
parliamentarians so eloquently proclaimed last week:  Taiwan is not 
the People's Republic of China.  As such, it is denied 
representation at the UN but should continue to seek to break out of 
its international isolation.  These statements that are not 
controversial in Taiwan and the legislature should pass them 
unanimously.  The issue of the nation's ideal title at the UN is not 
vital to a legislative proposal.  Unnecessary controversy should be 
avoided in favor of garnering a unanimous vote that would amplify 
the resolution's significance in light of the legislature's fierce 
divide. ..." 
 
YOUNG