VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0422/01 0842323
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 242323Z MAR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8525
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8064
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9319

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000422 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, U.S. 
CARRIERS IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT 
 
¶1. Summary:  The Chinese-language and English-language dailies in 
Taiwan gave significant reporting and editorial coverage March 22-24 
to Saturday's presidential election, in which KMT's Ma Ying-jeou won 
a landslide victory over DPP's Frank Hsieh.  The two controversial 
referenda proposed by the KMT and the DPP, respectively, seeking 
Taiwan's UN membership, failed to pass the required thresholds.  The 
pro-unification "United Daily News" ran the results of its latest 
opinion survey on page two March 24, which showed that 86 percent of 
those polled said they accept the fact that Ma was elected 
president, and 70 percent said they are confident in the KMT's rule 
over the coming four years.  A survey released by the centrist, 
KMT-leaning "China Times" March 24 also showed that 79 percent of 
the respondents said they are happy to see Ma elected president, and 
66 percent of respondents said they believe improving Taiwan's 
economy should be the first priority. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, editorials in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" and "Taiwan News" all cast doubts 
about how Ma is going to interact with Beijing and while still 
maintaining Taiwan's national interest.  These editorials all said 
they will closely examine Ma's words and deeds and asserted that any 
decision concerning Taiwan's future must be decided by the Taiwan 
people.  A column in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" hailed 
Taiwan's democracy and said Ma's landslide victory has freed the 
island from being ruled by an alien regime.  A "China Times" 
editorial called on Ma to face Taiwan's mainstream public opinion 
with a humble heart, and a "United Daily News" editorial discussed 
the constitutional significance of Saturday's presidential election 
and added that some political curses deliberately imposed on Taiwan 
by the DPP can finally be lifted.  An editorial in the conservative, 
pro-unification, English-language "China Post" suggested that Ma 
visit Beijing, a move that would mark the beginning of a real 
dialogue across the Taiwan Strait.  Two op-eds in the "Liberty 
Times," however, discussed the two U.S. aircraft carriers sailing 
near the Taiwan Strait.  An op-ed said that, while the U.S. and 
China are competing to shape a new order in the Asia-Pacific region, 
the DPP should think about what kind of a role Taiwan should play. 
A separate op-ed said the U.S. deployment of its aircraft carriers 
near Taiwan demonstrated that stability in the Taiwan Strait is 
crucial to the U.S. and Japan's interests in the region.  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. Taiwan's Presidential Election 
 
A) "The Day of Being Elected Is the Beginning of Ordeals" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (3/24): 
 
"... During his campaigns, perhaps out of convenience or being 
affected by the public opinion and thus tilted toward the 
Taiwan-centric values, Ma Ying-jeou has made slight revision to his 
'[cross-Strait] common market' platform; he called for Taiwan's 
future to be determined by the Taiwan people and asserted that 
[Beijing] has to dismantle missiles targeting Taiwan before both 
sides of the Taiwan Strait can sit down and talk.  On top of that, 
Ma also emphasized that he was running for the president of a free 
and democratic country with independent sovereignty.  All these 
remarks should be viewed as the pledges of a president-elect, which 
will be implemented and examined by the public after he takes the 
helm.  We look forward to seeing Ma implement these revisions, and 
we need to inform the future president respectfully:  [They] must by 
no means push Taiwan toward the 'one China' road of no return and 
leave out the option of independence when deciding Taiwan's future. 
Also, any decision regarding Taiwan's future must be made via 
plebiscites.  Likewise, the DPP is in fact both a brake and a 
partner for the new president in his dealing with China in the 
future.  Ma has the opportunity to create a pattern in which both 
the ruling and opposition parties work together to cope with China's 
annexation [attempts]. ..." 
 
B) "The Significance and Challenges of the Transfer of Power for the 
Second Time" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (3/23): 
 
"... Also, during the process of the island's democratic 
development, Taiwan's voters have constantly sent out significant 
messages via their choices.  Saturday's presidential election was no 
exception.  The KMT staged a comeback and regained administrative 
power; such a development indicated that this political party, which 
has ruled Taiwan for over half a century by autocratic means, has 
now regained the support of a majority of voters through democratic 
means.  An alien regime has now obtained legitimacy and legality [on 
the island].  It is equally important that Ma Ying-jeou, who was 
born in the British colony of Hong Kong, has now been elected 
 
president in a fierce race.  [Ma's election] highlighted Taiwan 
voters' tolerance, which even outshines that of other advanced 
democracies, including the United States. ... 
 
"Judging from the general situation, there are some imperfect 
aspects in Taiwan's presidential election and deepening democracy. 
The most evident case is that the two referenda have failed to pass 
their required thresholds.  Such a result highlighted that the 
current 'birdcage referenda' have such a high threshold that makes 
it unable to reflect public opinion precisely.  Saturday's fresh 
examples also sent out incorrect signals to the world, which will 
damage Taiwan's interests. ..." 
 
C) "Out with the Old, In with the Older" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (3/23): 
 
"Taiwan's voters have changed government for only the second time, 
re-installing the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the presidency. 
KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou defeated the Democratic Progressive 
Party's Frank Hsieh by almost a 17 percent margin. Ma was the 
favorite in the election and opinion polls had at one time put him 
as many as 25 percentage points ahead of Hsieh.  Public 
dissatisfaction with the DPP's political record and consequent 
losses in January's legislative elections sapped party morale, and 
this was reflected in the results of the poll, despite a narrowing 
in the performance of the candidates. ... 
 
"The KMT should be especially cautious when dealing with the 
cross-strait problem. Cross-strait relations should be improved, but 
implementation of the 'one China' principle remains dangerous. 
There are numerous reasons for this. For now, this will suffice: The 
Dalai Lama has repeatedly expressed that he seeks real autonomy for 
Tibet rather than independence, but still China has dealt with the 
situation forcefully and brutally.  Let this serve as a stark 
reminder for Ma: Taiwan's long-term possibilities must not be 
sacrificed for short-term economic benefits, and toeing China's line 
offers no guarantee of a peaceful outcome.  Once Ma assumes office, 
he should begin to repair the increasingly worn US-Taiwan 
relationship and facilitate cooperation with Japan to reduce the 
Chinese threat. Hundreds of Chinese missiles threaten this country 
and Taiwan's president cannot sit idly by as their numbers grow.  Ma 
must immediately begin to make up for the arms deficit resulting 
from eight years of KMT budget boycotts. Only real might can serve 
as a backup to meaningful cross-strait negotiations." 
 
D) "Ma's Challenges Just Beginning" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (3/24): 
 
"There is no doubt that the adoption of an 'economy is everything' 
strategy was one of the key elements behind the landslide victory of 
Kuomintang president-elect Ma Ying-jeou in Saturday's election over 
Democratic Progressive Party contender Frank Hsieh Chang-ting. 
Evidently, most voters have placed their hopes on Ma and his party 
to bring them a better life, with apparent disregard to the 
feasibility of his promised panaceas or how our country's national 
status has been and may continue to be sabotaged in international 
society. ...  In the face of the two-handed strategy of the People's 
Republic of China to lure Taiwan investment into the Chinese market 
and simultaneously obstructing Taiwan's participation in the world 
community, president-elect Ma must devise ways to address Taiwan's 
external relations in manner that is pragmatic and also in keeping 
with Taiwan's national interests. ... 
 
"A positive sign was Ma's confirmation of his switch to adopt, at 
least in form, the long-held position of the DPP that 'Taiwan's 
future must be decided by the people of Taiwan' and his affirmation 
that Taiwan people deeply desire to be represented in the U.N.  But 
there are numerous signs that Ma will find bumps on his 'yellow 
brick road' to cross-strait peace and prosperity.  Ma's first major 
external challenge will involve the degree to which he will be 
capable of upholding "Taiwan-centric identity" and Taiwan's 
sovereignty and independence when he pursues political dialogue with 
the authoritarian Chinese Communist Party ruled PRC. ...  The KMT 
president-elect will also face a stiff challenge in counteracting 
Beijing's attempts to swallow up more of Taiwan's remaining 23 
official diplomatic partners and intensify Taiwan's isolation. 
 
"Ma's assumption that Beijing would have the 'goodwill' to grant 
Taiwan more international respect and space if only Taipei accepts 
the 'Consensus of 1992' lacks political reality and constitutes just 
one of the 'missing links' that the KMT politician failed to address 
honestly during the presidential campaign.  Ma should also avoid 
being hijacked by the KMT old guard, represented by figures such as 
KMT honorary chairman Lien Chan, who favor a kowtowing approach to 
 
 
Beijing as such an appeasement stance would deprive the KMT 
president of any bargaining power in cross-strait consultations as 
well as erode his domestic mandate.  Ma should also not lock himself 
in Taiwan but should follow the example of outgoing President Chen 
Shui-bian in utilizing every possible opportunity to highlight 
Taiwan's democracy and bolster its foreign relations.  Finally, Ma 
should never retreat from his acceptance of the principle that only 
the Taiwan people have the right to decide their future as this is 
the true core value of Taiwan democracy and the bottom line for any 
negotiations with Beijing.  Ma should be aware that voters will 
continue to 'listen to his words and watch his deeds.' 
 
E) "Crossing a Mountain Top" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in his column in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000]: 
 
"The transfer of political power for the second time is a necessary 
process to consolidate democracy.  Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory 
this time has made Taiwan break loose of the shadow of being 
governed by an alien regime.  As a matter of fact, A-bian should 
shoulder seventy percent of the responsibility for the DPP's defeat 
in the election, and Ma has eighty percent of the credit for the 
KMT's coming back to power again. ... 
 
"The 'long stay' program that Ma started last May has created wonder 
with Ma, whose identification with the land of Taiwan and Taiwan 
society's acceptance of a president of mainland Chinese origin have 
passed the trials step by step.  The magic spell that a mainland 
Chinese cannot be the president of Taiwan has been broken, and a new 
Taiwan identity has emerged.  Taiwan's democracy has made a big 
stride forward. ..." 
 
F) "Face Taiwan's Mainstream Public Opinion with a Humble Heart" 
 
The centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (3/23): 
 
"... Ma Ying-jeou ran far in the lead [in Saturday's presidential 
election] garnering 58 percent of the vote, which even surpassed the 
54 percent of the vote won by [former President] Lee Teng-hui when 
Taiwan held its first direct presidential election twelve years ago. 
 Ma's election has broken the half-century-old magic spell of ethnic 
groups; it has also smashed the myth that nativism is equivalent to 
the DPP.  The Taiwan people should be very proud of such a 
development, which did not come easily, and the achievement is worth 
cherishing for the president-elect.  The moment of being elected 
marks the beginning of a difficult task.  In the face of the wound 
caused by political antagonism in Taiwan over the past eight years, 
the problems the new president will have to face will be much more 
and more difficult than he can imagine. ... 
 
"Frank Hsieh lamented in his speech after having learnt of his 
defeat that Taiwan's democracy has been walking against the wind all 
the time.  Hsieh viewed this presidential election as his personal 
setback and not the defeat of Taiwan's democracy.  This view is 
completely accurate; the essence of democracy lies in respecting the 
people's choices, and a president elected by the voters represents 
the popular desire.  The fact that the island is able to undergo the 
transfer of power for the second time indicates that Taiwan's 
democracy has grown mature.  In the future, the transfer of 
political power will become a normality of Taiwan's democracy, which 
is exactly the most important mechanism to check and balance the 
ones in power. ..." 
 
G) "[KMT] Returning to Strategic Ambiguity and Seeking to Get out of 
the [Cross-Strait] Quagmire Pragmatically" 
 
Journalist Lin Ting-yao noted in an analysis in the centrist, 
pro-KMT "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (3/24): 
 
"New President-elect Ma Ying-jeou reiterated [the position of] 'one 
China with separate interpretations' and said he has no intention of 
inviting the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama to visit Taiwan. 
[Ma's] China policy thinking has gradually returned to the line of 
'strategic ambiguity' previously held by the KMT government, which 
is distinct from the 'strategic clarity' line of 'one China, one 
Taiwan' and 'one country on either side of the Taiwan Strait,' as 
set up by Chen Shui-bian and the DPP. ...  It is evident that Ma has 
gradually returned to the KMT's old route of 'strategic ambiguity' 
by seeking a mutual consensus amid ambiguity.  But the difficulty is 
that the cross-Strait relations have been stretched very thin by the 
Bian administration.  How to rebuild mutual trust across the Taiwan 
Strait and whether Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation and China's 
Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait will resume 
talks, other than the efforts put in by Ma's administration, lie in 
Beijing's response." 
 
H) "Breaking the Taiwan Curse; Rebuilding the Taiwan Value" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (3/23): 
 
"... There are three very important constitutional implications to 
this [presidential] election.  The first is to accomplish 'the 
second party turnover,' which means the KMT and the DPP both come 
into power and fall out of power because of direct elections.  This 
is extremely significant regarding the 'consolidation of democracy.' 
 Second, the KMT's 'full rule,' with the concern of weakness in 
'check and balance' however, avoids a constitutional disaster of  a 
'split government' which was caused inevitably by 'a small president 
and big constraint.'  Third, this year is the twentieth anniversary 
of the lifting of martial law.  'Sons and daughters' who just turned 
twenty years old participated in the voting. 
 
"This presidential election can be regarded as 'a choice of Taiwan 
values' and 'a redemption for Taiwan values.'  The result of the 
vote counting smashed three major curses in Taiwan politics, which 
are a) the ethnic label; b) the hard fight between unification and 
independence; c) a regime from outside. ..." 
 
I) "Improving Relations between Taiwan, China" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (3/23): 
 
"One most urgent task facing Ma Ying-jeou, the president elect, is 
to improve relations between Taiwan and China.  To be sure, that is 
practically the only one thing he must try the best he can to 
accomplish in the next four years. Is he up to it? ...  Ma condemned 
the Chinese suppression in Tibet and said he would consider letting 
Taiwan boycott the Beijing Olympics in August.  He should 
reconsider.  And he should do something more. We hope the 
president-elect would say he would go to Beijing, just like U.S. 
President George W. Bush. The Games are for peace. Even the Dalai 
Lama does not oppose, if not outright support, the Beijing Olympics. 
 If accepted, his trip to Beijing is the best olive branch Taiwan 
could extend to China. It will mark the beginning of a real dialogue 
across the Taiwan Strait that would set the modus vivendi in place 
and usher in a lasting peace in one of the world's flashpoints." 
 
¶4. U.S. Carriers in the Taiwan Strait 
 
A) "Taiwan, Be Quiet! Commenting on the Power Re-Organizing Under 
the U.S.-China Competition after the Referenda" 
 
Yun Cheng, a freelancer focusing on the Taiwan issue, opined in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] (3/23): 
 
"... The deployment of two aircraft carriers' battle groups is the 
first time since the 1996 Taiwan Strait missile crisis. ...  It is 
unusual that the U.S. comes without invitation and uses the same 
amount of force for 'conflict' while nothing happens in the Taiwan 
Strait.  Why do two aircraft carriers' battle groups come?  What 
does Taiwan mean to the U.S. interests? ... 
 
"... [U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Timothy] Keating released the 
information in a downplayed manner, even said that China 'has had 
the posture of surpassing the U.S.' with the purpose of assuring the 
bottom line of the U.S. core interests and send the warning.  The 
standby of two aircraft carriers' battle groups in the Taiwan region 
is not for Taiwan's democracy; instead, it is to secure the scope of 
the U.S. influence in the West Pacific since the Pacific War and it 
is even the obligation of the homeland defense under the U.S. 
constitution!  Taiwan, be quiet! ... 
 
"A 'quieter Taiwan' is in accordance with the U.S. interests.  But 
what does it mean by Taiwan's interests?  When the U.S. continues 
saying that no matter the Republic of China or the so-called Taiwan 
is not a 'country' anymore, the DPP, which has demolished the 
illusion of ruling the government, cannot respond by scolding that 
'who said I am not [a country] at all' or 'I will show you by a 
referendum.'  The DPP should take this terrible loss as an advantage 
to admit its understanding in the past as incomplete, even wrong and 
review the meanings in every level again, including the meaning of 
the Republic of China to Taiwan, the meaning of Taiwan to the U.S. 
Constitution, and Taiwan in the international law.  To form a next 
stage of the movement theory in accordance with the fact, not on 
expectation, is the right way. ..." 
 
B) "Commenting on the Shock of the U.S. Aircraft Carriers" 
 
Cheng Ta-chen, an assistant professor in the International Affairs 
and Strategic Studies in Tamkang University, opined in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] (3/23): 
 
"Before [Taiwan's] presidential election, the U.S. deployed two 
aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait region. ...  The outside does 
not know whether the U.S. and Japan has received concrete 
intelligence and make such movement.  Undoubtedly, the display of 
the U.S. defense force has deterred China at a certain level.  The 
U.S. and Japan have taken advantage of this opportunity to 
demonstrate that the Taiwan Strait is a region where both countries 
'are highly concerned.'  The stability of the Taiwan Strait is where 
two countries' interests lie.  The internal [politics of] Taiwan 
might overlook the implication.  However, the U.S. and Japan's 
movement has caused a certain amount of shock in China. ..." 
 
YOUNG