VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0348/01 0730945
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130945Z MAR 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8347
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7929
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9185

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000348 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: THE UN REFERENDA, THE U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN 
RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage March 13 on the clash outside DPP presidential candidate 
Frank Hsieh's campaign headquarters; on the presidential election 
campaigns; and on the Chinese Taipei baseball team beating Australia 
and winning a spot in the Beijing Olympic Games.  Taiwan's and 
China's human rights situation as reported in the State Department's 
2007 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices also received 
attention in local newspapers.  U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral 
Timothy Keating's remarks on cross-Strait relations were covered by 
major dailies as well.  The centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" ran 
a banner headline on page five saying "U.S. Pacific Commander: March 
22 to May 20, Hope Bian [President Chen Shui-bian] does not Fan the 
Flames." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, on the eve of the third 
anniversary of China's anti-secession law, President Chen Shui-bian 
published a commentary in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" 
describing why both the referenda proposed by the DPP and the KMT 
seeking UN membership are important for the development of Taiwan's 
democracy.  Chen urged voters to support both UN referenda on March 
¶22.  The Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military capabilities 
continues to be the subject of follow-up discussions in strategic 
circles.  A commentary in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taipei Times" mentioned the choices that China might face after 
Taiwan's presidential election and how China will manage the U.S. by 
creating political leverage over other international issues that are 
important to the U.S.  End summary. 
 
¶3. The UN Referenda 
 
"Giving Democracy a Chance - Using Referenda to Cheer on Taiwan" 
 
President Chen Shui-bian wrote a column in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] (3/13): 
 
"... The [DPP's] 'referendum to join the UN' and the [KMT's] 
'referendum to return to the UN,' which are to be held on March 22, 
will not only be an opportunity to voice to the whole world the 
Taiwan people's aspiration to join the UN, and the determination and 
the will to participate actively in international society, but they 
will also be 'anti-war, anti-invasion, and anti-annexation' 
plebiscites. Since China passed the 'anti-secession law,' it has, 
through diplomatic channels, increasingly pressured the UN 
Secretariat and organizations that belong to the UN system to 
 
SIPDIS 
request that they accept China's wrong interpretation of UN 
Resolution 2758 claiming that the People's Republic of China has 
sovereignty over Taiwan and that the People's Republic of China can 
represent the 23 million people of Taiwan in the United Nations. ... 
 
 
"For [the sake of] Taiwan and democracy, everyone, please do not 
boycott the referenda on March 22.  If you are against the 
'anti-secession law,' against China using force to annex Taiwan; if 
you support Taiwan having its own seat in the UN and support 
Taiwan's participation in the international community with equal 
status, then please cast the referendum ballots.  No matter [whether 
it is] 'the referendum to join the UN' or 'the referendum to return 
to the UN,' [you] must collect both ballots and approve both 
referenda and make both referenda ... pass the threshold, and make 
every one of Taiwan's 23 million people a winner.  Let us join hands 
to make new history in Taiwan's plebiscite.  Give democracy a 
chance, and use referenda to cheer for Taiwan!" 
 
¶4. The U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"China Wants to Manage U.S. Policy" 
 
Sushil Seth, a writer based in Australia, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (3/13): 
 
"... China would like to avoid military confrontation with the US 
over Taiwan or anywhere else, with the US being by far the strongest 
military power. ... 
 
"Beijing has often maintained that it is prepared for talks within 
the "one China" formula. And if China, and a KMT government in 
Taipei, were to work out a formula that rules out a separate Taiwan, 
any US commitment to defend Taiwan might become redundant. 
 
"But it might not be all that simple, because any working 
arrangement between Beijing and Taipei will have a long time frame. 
And a new government in Taiwan will not be all that keen to abjure 
US protection during a long transitional relationship between 
Beijing and Taipei. ... 
 
"While China might find living with a new KMT government (if voted 
into power) congenial, it cannot count on a smooth political 
RELATIONS 
 
trajectory. And the US commitment to defend Taiwan is likely to 
remain relevant. 
 
"Beijing is aware of this and hence is continuing to build its 
military capability designed, in the short and medium term, to deter 
the US from taking on China. 
 
"In other words, the US might find the cost of confronting China 
prohibitive. ... 
 
"With the US looking to Beijing for support on international issues 
at a time when Washington is overstretched, Taiwan tends to become a 
side issue. 
 
"The problem, though, is any sign of appeasement on Taiwan would be 
read by China as the US' faltering resolve to keep actively engaged 
in the Asia-Pacific. 
 
"Some of the regional countries are already factoring this into 
their policy formulations by seeking political accommodation with 
China as the pre-eminent regional power." 
 
YOUNG