VZCZCXYZ1772
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DE RUEHDS #0585/01 0631146
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O 031146Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9786
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
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UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 000585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EAID ET
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS HERALD 2: SLOW NEB PROGRESS; WILL 
"FOREGO" CERTAIN ELECTION LAW PROVISIONS 
 
REF: ADDIS 261 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) In a February 14 meeting with Ambassador, National 
Electoral Board (NEB) Chairman Dr. Merga and Vice Chairman 
Dr. Adissu commented on the positive progress that the NEB 
has made since being appointed.  While the NEB has made 
positive progress toward implementing the April 13 and 20 
local elections, it has made minimal progress or efforts 
toward establishing procedures and regulations for the 
conduct of these elections in a transparent and open manner. 
Lack of capacity, time, and resources, as well as the 
apparent heavy-handed steps by the ruling party make these 
local elections a lost cause and will force the donor 
community to work hard to ensure that the 2010 national 
elections do not end in voter frustration and violence.  End 
Summary. 
 
POSITIVE PROGRESS... 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Upon opening the meeting, Dr. Merga reported to 
Ambassador that the NEB had established permanent offices in 
each of Ethiopia's regions, as well as temporary offices 
throughout the country in order to proceed with the April 
elections.  Dr. Merga boasted that the NEB had registered 
over 26 million voters for the 2008 local elections -- a 
figure greater than the number of voters registered for the 
2005 national elections.  Among these are over 1.117 million 
registered voters in Addis Ababa city.  The NEB reported that 
it had already issued licenses for organizations to conduct 
civic and voter education as well.  Dr. Adissu went on to 
boast that the NEB had also successfully put in place most 
public election observers.  The Electoral Law of 2007 states 
that each polling station shall have five election observers 
elected from non-partisan members of their respective 
communities.  With over 42,000 polling stations, the NEB had 
successfully put in place roughly 200,000 local election 
observers. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Despite this progress, the NEB members lamented 
opposition parties' tendency to complain to donor embassies 
about the electoral playing field while telling the NEB that 
there are no problems.  Dr. Adissu specifically complained 
about what the NEB sees as the international community's 
propensity to believe allegations by opposition parties 
without independently verifying circumstances.  PolChief 
agreed that verification of allegations is key to the 
credibility of the coming elections, but cited the NEB's 
directive to its own regional offices not to meet with 
foreign diplomats without prior consent from the NEB in 
writing as an impediment to our ability to conduct such 
verification.  PolChief specifically cited an instance in 
early-February in which PolOff and PolSpecialist were turned 
away from pre-scheduled and pre-confirmed meetings with NEB 
offices in the Southern Nations region (SNNPR) -- meetings 
which were facilitated by the NEB Executive Director -- due 
to the absence of such a letter of permission.  In light of 
this, Ambassador took advantage of the meeting to request the 
NEB's permission to meet with NEB offices during a February 
25-27 trip to Western Oromiya. 
 
...BUT SOME THINGS HAVE TO BE "FOREGONE" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) PolChief requested clarification from the NEB on the 
Board's interpretation of the term "election process" as it 
pertains to the rights of election monitors as detailed in 
Article 80 of the Electoral Law.  Article 80 notes that "a 
representative of an organizations who is issued with an 
election observation license has the right to monitor the 
election process and request and obtain appropriate 
information."  Reacting defensively, Dr. Adissu quickly 
rejected that the law referred to "monitoring."  NEB Chair 
Dr. Merga began to note that the "election process" referred 
to all activities on election day up to the final tallying of 
votes, only to be cut off by Executive Director Tesfaye 
Mengesha who clarified that the "election process" referred 
to all election related events beginning with the initial 
registration of voters through the results complaints review 
process. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) PolChief asked rhetorically whether the NEB was 
subjecting the local elections to questions of credibility 
since the voter and candidate registration periods were 
almost complete and campaigning set to begin while the NEB 
had yet to even establish the regulations under which 
interested domestic election observer organizations could 
express interest, much less receive licenses.  Dr. Merga 
explained that as a relatively new NEB operating under a 
relatively new electoral law, it had to produce many 
directives and regulations required to implement the 
provisions captured within the Electoral Law.  As such, Dr. 
Merga explained, the possibility of domestic election 
observers monitoring the election process was "one of many 
things that Ethiopia would have to forego for this election." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The NEB certainly faces an up-hill challenge in 
implementing the provisions of the new Electoral Law and 
conducting the already delayed local elections as a result of 
the lack of time to establish operations, capacity problems, 
and resource limitations.  The NEB is also not an independent 
player, with the opposition (rightly) complaining about its 
close linkage to the ruling party.  It will take time, 
working closely with the NEB and GoE to establish a strong 
independent institution capable of conducting transparent and 
open elections.  Post will report septel on PolOff's election 
playing field assessment to SNNPR and Ambassador's visit to 
Western Oromiya.  The NEB did not deny the Ambassador access 
to any NEB office or meetings during the visit to Oromiya, an 
opposition stronghold.  With only eight weeks left before the 
local elections, however, it is painfully clear that the 
local elections are a major step backward from the historic 
openness of the 2005 national elections.  The inability of 
the opposition to register all of its candidates, especially 
in opposition strongholds like Oromiya, and persistent 
reports of harassment against opposition candidates and 
supporters makes it a certainty that the ruling party will 
dominate these elections.  It will be important for the donor 
community to work closely with the GoE to ensure that the 
2010 national elections do not go the way of these local 
elections, otherwise the chance for violence and active voter 
opposition to the government could be more severe than the 
post-election violence of 2005.  End comment. 
YAMAMOTO