VZCZCXRO2342
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAR #0338/01 0720725
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 120725Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY ACCRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6256
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SNAR GH
SUBJECT: GHANA: CIVIL SOCIETY PREPARES TO MEDIATE ELECTION CONFLICT 
 
REF: Accra 187 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: In a series of meetings between Poloff and 
representatives of Ghanaian media, think tanks, and religious 
coalitions, civil society leaders predicted a contentious December 
presidential election but believed violence could be averted.  The 
leaders conveyed a generally positive view of Electoral Commission 
(EC) preparations to-date, but said that the EC is not an effective 
dispute resolution body, and called for civil society to play a 
stronger role in mediating potential conflict. End Summary. 
 
Civil Society's Role in Assuring a Peaceful Election 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2. (U) Between February 26 and March 3, Poloff met with a number of 
leading civil society activists to solicit their views of the 
upcoming elections, including potential problems that Ghana faces. 
Among the leaders we met were: 
 
-- Ben Ephson, editor of the independent newspaper The Daily 
Dispatch.  Ephson also conducts extensive political polling, 
overseeing a nationwide team of assistants to measure public opinion 
on candidates and issues.  Post is providing Ephson with a DHRF 
grant for monitoring work during the upcoming presidential and 
parliamentary elections. 
 
-- Reverend Fred Deegbe, General Secretary of the Christian Council 
of Ghana, a grouping of Methodist, Presbyterian, and Baptist 
leaders.  The Christian Council conducts research-based advocacy on 
issues relating to governance and peace building, socio-economic 
justice, and gender and human rights.  The organization has prior 
experience with election monitoring and has served as a mediator of 
conflicts between Christian and traditional authorities.  Rev. 
Deegbe also chairs the Ghana Anti-Corruption Council. 
 
-- Peter Fiamor, research officer with the Institute for Democratic 
Government (IDEG), a research and advocacy group promoting civic 
engagement.  IDEG works to improve Parliament's capacity to engage 
the executive branch and to help citizens present local issues to 
their elected representatives.  IDEG is planning district-level 
debates among parliamentary aspirants before the December elections. 
 
 
-- Dr. Emmanuel Gyimah Boadi, Executive Director of the Ghana Center 
for Democratic Development (CDD), a policy think-tank supporting 
good governance, rule-of-law, and institutional capacity-building. 
Gyimah-Boadi said his organization's key challenge is to strengthen 
parliament in order to "contain the excessive power of the executive 
branch" and to develop a robust system of checks and balances.  CDD 
plans to participate in election monitoring in December. [NOTE: See 
reftel for Dr. Boadi's comments on what Kenya's post-election crisis 
means to Ghana. END NOTE] 
 
Observers Predict a Contentious Race 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Meeting with Poloff on February 27, Ben Ephson predicted a 
"contentious but not violent" presidential election in December.  He 
said that the growing population of 'floating voters' not aligned to 
a specific party (estimated by Ephson to represent 25-30% of the 
electorate) will strongly influence the election results.  Ephson 
stated that the floating voters see corruption as a significant 
problem and hold President Kufour's administration responsible for 
the rising level of corruption.  Although Ephson predicts a second 
round runoff will occur (with the NDC prevailing), he said 
post-election violence is unlikely.  Ephson believes voting 
irregularities will decrease in this election, due to improved voter 
identification cards and oversight, vigilant polling agents, and a 
more sophisticated electorate unlikely to be influenced by vote 
buying schemes.  He said that citizens would take campaign money but 
not feel bound to vote for the bribe-giving candidate. 
 
¶4. (U) Dr. Boadi predicted an intensely-contested election between 
two parties relatively equal in strength.  Boadi noted that Ghana's 
excessive concentration of power in the executive branch makes the 
presidency the "main political prize" and that Ghana's anticipated 
oil revenue raises the stakes in the upcoming election. Although he 
predicts a contentious election, Boadi believes election-related 
conflict can be contained, provided the Electoral Commission 
maintains its level of transparency and revives the Inter-Party 
Advisory Committee (IPAC), and that media and civil society groups 
play an active role as observers. 
 
Civil Society's Role in Dispute Resolution 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Rev. Deegbe told Poloff that civil society groups must 
actively promote moderation and tolerance if election conflict 
arises.  Deegbe opined that it is unlikely there will be significant 
violence following a disputed election, because Ghana has credible 
 
ACCRA 00000338  002 OF 002 
 
 
"referees", including civil and religious leaders, to prevent it. He 
said the EC must declare the election results before the government 
or political parties to promote confidence in the process.  Deegbe 
added that the Christian Council will urge member churches to 
participate in voter education and election monitoring, and to seek 
practical solutions to accommodate a Sunday election.  (NOTE: The 
December 7 election day falls on a Sunday this year, which has 
prompted calls from Christian leaders to change the election date so 
as not to interfere with churchgoers, or cause logistical 
difficulties since many churches serve as polling stations.  Deegbe 
said the Christian Council is in discussions with the EC to identify 
a solution.  The EC has publicly stated that election day will 
remain December 7. END NOTE) 
 
¶6. (U) Commenting further on the role of the Electoral Commission, 
Peter Fiamor, Research Officer with the Institute for Democratic 
Governance (IDEG), told Poloff that the EC's dispute resolution 
capacity remains untested, and that the judiciary and political 
parties must also play a strong role in mediating conflict.  Fiamor 
noted that the media's role in civil society is advancing, pointing 
to an increase in serious investigative reporting and a focus on 
substantive issues. 
 
¶7. (U) Dr. Boadi also said that civil society must collaborate to 
mediate election conflict.  CDD plans to join forces with other 
domestic election observers and establish a coalition as a 
counterforce to political parties.  CDD Research Officer Kojo 
Pumpuni Asante said such a coalition will be essential for publicly 
certifying election results as free and fair and muting political 
party protests.  However, he does not view the recently established 
National Peace Council as an effective convener of civil society, 
stating it lacks sufficient capacity and credibility.  Asante also 
said that promoting adequate media access to all parties is 
essential to leveling the playing field and reducing perceptions 
that the ruling party is abusing its power. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: The concerns raised over the EC's limited ability 
to resolve election-related disputes, and the need for the EC to act 
transparently (such as through the regular convening of IPAC 
meetings, something that has not taken place during the past year), 
are serious and could have an impact on the perceived credibility of 
the 2008 elections.  With the election likely to be close amidst a 
highly polarized political environment, these civil society groups 
can play a critical role in ensuring that the campaign and election 
plays out peacefully and that potential conflicts are identified and 
defused early.  End Comment. 
 
BRIDGEWATER