VZCZCXRO6906
RR RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHWL #0071/01 0570412
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260412Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5099
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1633
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5118
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0652
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: HAVE NEW ZEALAND VOTERS SIMPLY TUNED OUT LABOUR? 
 
 
WELLINGTON 00000071  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  Successive political polls in the past two weeks 
showed that the ruling Labour Party has failed to cut into the 
opposition National Party's sizable lead as the 2008 election year 
begins.  The Colmar Brunton poll, New Zealand's most important, had 
Labour at 34% trailing National at 53%.  This was followed by the 
Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll which showed Labour at 32% compared to 
National's 55%.  This coincided with a sequence of political 
controversies and problems for the Government, compounding a 
particularly bad period for Labour.  Although it is still early in 
the election cycle, these polls may have Labour worrying that, 
regardless of its policy announcements designed to appeal across a 
wide spectrum of the population, voters nonetheless remain unmoved. 
End Summary. 
 
Labour Still Trailing 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)   In its first survey for the 2008 election year New 
Zealand's most prominent political poll, the Colmar Brunton poll, 
underscored the main opposition National Party's continued dominance 
over the ruling Labour Party.  Released over the February 16-17 
weekend, the poll found the National Party at 53%, with the Labour 
at 34%.  These numbers have not changed much in the two months since 
the last poll in December 2007.  An analysis of recent Colmar 
Brunton polls shows the trend in favor of National and against 
Labour remains unabated.  Labour's political ally, the Green Party, 
up 4.1 points to 6%, was the only other party to register over the 
5% threshold needed for representation in parliament on the basis of 
party vote alone.  On these findings, National could conceivably 
govern alone without needing any support from the minor parties as 
presently required by Labour. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In the same poll, National Party leader John Key increased 
his lead over Prime Minister Helen Clark in the Preferred Prime 
Minister stakes.  Key was up one point to 36% with Clark dropping 
three points to 27%.  On economic outlook, the poll revealed that 
pessimists of New Zealand's economic prospects continue to grow at 
the expense of optimists. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  If Labour thought that the latest Colmar Brunton poll was 
dire, worse was to come a week later.  The Fairfax Media-Neilsen 
poll, released over the February 23-24 weekend, found that since the 
last poll in November 2007 National surged 10 points to 55% with 
Labour losing 8 points to 32%.  This result was front-page news in 
the weekend edition of the Dominion Post newspaper, where emphasis 
was given to National's 23-point lead over Labour being its biggest 
since Labour took office in 1999.  Compounding the grim news for 
Clark was Key's dramatic overtaking of her in the Preferred PM 
stakes.  In the Fairfax Media-Neilsen poll, Key gained 8 points to 
44% to Clark, who dropped 9 points to 29%. 
 
National:  Labour Faces New Reality 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  A National Party Member of Parliament has told us that 
although his party is extremely pleased by both poll results, it 
nonetheless remains guarded against any complacency.  The MP 
commented that despite her diminishing personal support in the 
polls, National still regards Clark as Labour's most potent 
political asset.  However, the MP observed that in John Key, Clark 
now faces the most capable National Party leader she has ever faced 
in an election year. 
 
A Series of Unfortunate Events for Labour 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The poll results came during an already depressing period 
for Labour, which has been forced on the defensive by a sequence of 
bad political news.  Over the past week, Clark has had to defend her 
Government against allegations of accepting inappropriate donations 
from a wealthy expatriate Labour donor, and purportedly promising 
the same donor a possible cabinet position and the honorary 
diplomatic post in Monaco.  Her government has also been criticized 
for published failings in the health sector.  Another blow for 
Labour has been the growing expectation that its ability to deliver 
oft-promised tax cuts in this election year may be sharply curtailed 
after release of the Government's tax receipts showed USD 158 
million less than forecast. 
 
Labour's Early Year Political Renewal Dashed 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  The Labour Government had high hopes for making inroads 
into National's popularity after starting the year with an active 
program of well-received policy announcements.  It has also made 
 
WELLINGTON 00000071  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
some recent decisions that were broadly supported by the public, 
e.g. its strong stance against Japanese whaling.  However, these 
poll results in addition to recent negative press have derailed any 
immediate hopes Labour had for narrowing the polling gap at the 
start of the 2008 political season.  Clark has since predicted that 
further government policy announcements will show voters that the 
Labour government is firmly behind their concerns and popular 
support will return to Labour. 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Labour is likely to be extremely frustrated by these poll 
results because, on balance, it had down little wrong since the 
start of the year.  Yet despite a terse-looking Clark at some recent 
public events, there are no obvious signs of this frustration within 
Labour ranks.  Labour is likely to console itself in that the 
election is still many months away and there is time to re-group. 
However, it must nonetheless be alarmed that these polls did not 
account for Labour's recent PR debacle in its sampling. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  A year ago, leading pundits patiently explained that while 
National as a party was ahead in most polls, Clark would continue to 
dominate the leadership ratings and effectively balance the contest. 
 However, Key's leadership surge at her expense has shattered 
Clark's hitherto impregnability and has enticed some media to 
venture that the only way for Labour to regain pre-election traction 
is to install Trade Minister Phil Goff as leader.  Clark is, 
however, unlikely to be removed from her post by Labour's caucus, 
where she maintains solid support.  Nevertheless, the party must be 
concerned that after nine years in power, the New Zealand public has 
simply stopped listening to Clark -- and like voters in Australia, 
may be looking for change for change's sake.  End Comment. 
 
McCormick