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R 040328Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
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INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 1610
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 5090
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0634
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000026 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NZ
SUBJECT: BACK-TO-BACK LEADERS' SPEECHES KICK OFF NZ ELECTION YEAR 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary.  New Zealand's political season is now underway 
in earnest following the first major speeches of the year by Prime 
Minister Helen Clark and opposition leader John Key of the National 
Party.  Breaking with established tradition, the PM changed the date 
of her speech and the location to follow Key's speech in Auckland in 
hopes of delivering a rhetorical knock-out punch.  Instead, Key's 
speech received more favorable reviews by political pundits and the 
media.  Though both leaders addressed similar themes of education 
and youth, the press gave Key higher marks on substance and 
connecting with public opinion.  Polls over the next few weeks will 
determine if voters agree.  End Summary. 
 
Key Focuses on Youth Crime 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  In his first major address of the year, National leader 
John Key concentrated on criticizing Labour's stewardship of the 
economy and highlighting New Zealand's income disparity.  He stated 
that a National government would focus more on the quality rather 
than quantity of government spending to address the country's 
economy and social problems.  Key promised National would be more 
careful of how the government spends the cash in the public purse 
than Labour and would reinvigorate the private sector, which Key 
argues Labour has neglected.  On education, Key proposed to retain 
the high school drop out age at 16, but would offer 
vocational/technical training courses or further study to 16 to 
17-year olds if they chose to leave school.  He added a stick to go 
with the carrot:  no welfare payments to youth under 18 if they opt 
out of his program. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Key's decision to address youth crime received the 
greatest share of media attention.  New Zealand is experiencing a 
spike in violent youth crime, and the issue is leading current 
public opinion polls as the most important topic of concern.  In his 
speech, Key outlined initiatives that would provide tougher judicial 
treatment of juvenile criminals, institute new custodial programs 
and strengthen those agencies and programs dedicated to preventing 
youth crime and the rehabilitating youth offenders, including 
military style boot camps.  Key's approach to tackling youth crime 
is a mix of strengthening the criminal justice system and addressing 
the root causes of youth offending.  While Key advocated lowering 
the age of criminal culpability and ordering children as young as 12 
and 13 into drug or alcohol rehabilitation programs, he also 
committed to providing more funding to mentoring and parenting 
initiatives, including Maori cultural-based schemes. (Note:  New 
Zealand's indigenous Maori population is disproportionably 
represented in its prison system and many youth crimes are 
perpetrated by young Maori.  End Note). 
 
Clark's Speech Mirrors Key's, Except on Youth Crime 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The issues addressed in Clark's speech were remarkably 
similar to those discussed by Key (such that Labour worried that 
someone may have leaked the substance of the PM's speech to 
National).  Clark talked up her government's economic legacy and 
stated that under her watch the New Zealand's economy was robust 
enough to withstand current global economic challenges.  She also 
touted her government's progress in climate change and trade issues. 
 Like Key, Clark used her opening 2008 salvo to announce new 
education policies -- including raising the age of compulsory 
schooling from 16 to 18 and expanding the new apprenticeship 
training scheme. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  A notable divergence from Key was Clark's lack of 
attention to youth crime, a growing hot-button issue with voters. 
Other than blaming a previous National Government's budget (1991) 
that slashed social spending for producing the current generation of 
hardened juvenile offenders, Clark did not provide the sort of 
comprehensive policy prescriptions to address the issue as did her 
political rival.  Moreover, Minister of Justice Annette King 
recently made headlines by downplaying the significance of the youth 
crime problem, claiming that it is not as important an issue as 
National has suggested. 
 
Media: First Blood to Key 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The media gave higher marks to Key's speech both on 
substance and fresh thinking.  Editorials in New Zealand's two most 
prominent newspapers - The New Zealand Herald and the Dominion Post 
- both gave the political advantage to Key.  The Dominion Post's 
editorial applauded the purpose and detail of Key's speech compared 
to Clark's speech, which the paper noted was primarily a "recitation 
of historical economic data."  The Herald's editors noted that Key's 
proposals were accompanied by extensive referencing and policy 
 
WELLINGTON 00000026  002 OF 002 
 
 
research.  Clark's speech, they noted, seemed to have been "spiced 
at the last minute."  The same editors also assessed that Key's 
incentive-oriented education polices are more practical than Clark's 
compulsion-based initiatives. 
 
Blogoshere Reaction 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  As expected, the right-leaning blogs applauded Key's 
speech and generally regarded it as a clean victory over Clark. 
However, many left-leaning blogs, were not as supportive of Clark. 
Most contributors to The Standard, New Zealand's leading left-wing 
blog, were dismissive of Clark's effort, labeling her speech dull 
and calling it a missed opportunity. 
 
Youth Justice Workers Back Key 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Leading professionals in the youth justice field, 
including the Principal Youth Court Judge, Andrew Becroft and the 
Sensible Sentencing Trust president Garth McVicar, applauded Key's 
strategy.  The National leader had held meetings with Becroft and 
other experts prior to formulating his policies, and Key's 
willingness to defer to the opinions of others paid off in public 
endorsements, enabling him to show that he is open to broad-based 
consultation.  Clark, on the other hand, received a lukewarm 
reception for her main education proposals from professionals in 
that field.  Educators welcomed Clark's concern but questioned the 
practicality (i.e., GNZ funding support) and clarity of her new 
education policies. 
 
Other Party Leaders Speak to Supporters 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Although most media attention was on the Clark and Key 
speeches, two other party leaders also recently gave their 
respective first political speeches of the year.  On January 20, 
Green Party co-leader Jeannette Fitzsimmons gave her 'State of the 
Planet' speech, where she issued a challenge to the leaders of the 
major parties for more action and less rhetoric on social and 
environmental issues.  On January 30, the leader of the Progressives 
Jim Anderton, a junior partner in the Labour's governing coalition, 
called for middle class tax relief.  (Note:  Clark has already 
signaled that such relief will be part of her government's budget 
due later in the year.  End Note). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  In the past and even in an election year, Clark gave her 
first political speech on the year on the opening day of Parliament, 
which this year falls on February 12.  Her decision to move her 
speech to the day after Key's and also to Auckland suggests that she 
regards him as a genuine threat to her re-election prospects.  It 
also underscores the significance to Labour of winning Auckland 
(where both Key and Clark spoke and where Key has been leading in 
the polls).  Labour's strong showing in South Auckland effectively 
tipped the balance for Clark in 2005.  Clark's avoidance of the 
timely issue of youth crime reveals that her celebrated sense of 
being on the right side of popular opinion may have diminished. 
Key's speech and proposed policies were in contrast to the sometimes 
unfeeling right-wing rhetoric voters came to expect from the 
previous National leader Don Brash, and allowed him to be portrayed 
as a pragmatic centrist.  The two speeches from the main party 
leaders, while similar in subject matter, were essentially a contest 
of choice versus compulsion.  The media claimed Key as the winner in 
the battle of the speeches; upcoming polls will tell if voters 
agree.  End Comment. 
 
McCormick