VZCZCXRO9560
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0304/01 0360815
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050815Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1521
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 8313
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5917
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9586
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 4541
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 6525
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1510
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7571
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8205

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 11 TOKYO 000304 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 02/05/08 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) LDP gearing up for determining official candidates (Asahi) 
 
(2) Respective interests of ruling, opposition parties 
criss-crossing over talks to revise special-purpose road 
construction revenues (Nikkei) 
 
(3) Suprapartisan group, including Kato, Yamasaki, to visit South 
Korea - aiming to pave way for political realignment? (Nikkei) 
 
(4) Outcome of Iwakuni mayoralty race and Lower House by-election to 
be touchstone for Abe's resurgence (Sentaku) 
 
(5) LDP's Yamasaki expects Prime Minister's assurance of visit to 
North Korea (Sentaku) 
 
(6) Kazamidori (Weathercock) column: Japan will be forced to choose 
between U.S. and China, if the latter is democratized (Nikkei) 
 
(7) Risks cannot be completely removed through blanket BSE testing 
(Asahi) 
 
(8) Increasing food self-sufficiency ratio to 45 PERCENT  extremely 
difficult due to shrinking arable land (Yomiuri) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) LDP gearing up for determining official candidates 
 
ASAHI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
February 5, 2008 
 
Over two years have passed since the September 2005 "postal 
election." The Liberal Democratic Party has begun making serious 
efforts to determine its official candidates running in single-seats 
in the next House of Representatives election. The LDP is trying to 
take the initiative in the political situation by applying pressure 
on the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto), 
although Lower House dissolution is no longer imminent because the 
ruling and opposition camps have cut a deal temporarily on the 
question of the provisional gasoline tax rate. At the same time, 
given the divided Diet in which the House of Councillors is 
controlled by the opposition camp, the LDP is highly alarmed that a 
failure to amicably coordinate views on endorsing winning candidates 
might result in a change in government. 
 
 
Seiko Noda, 46, chairperson of the LDP research commission on 
consumer issues, attended a Setsubun (bean-throwing) ceremony at a 
temple in the city go Gifu on Feb. 3 in which she proudly said: 
"It's been 15 years since I was first elected to the Diet. All those 
years have been filled with ups and downs. Although the scare of 
frozen gyoza dumplings laced with pesticide is shaking the country, 
I am in charge of the matter (in the LDP)." 
 
Opposing (then Prime Minister Koizumi's) postal privatization plan, 
Noda ran in the previous Lower House election as an independent and 
won a seat in the Gifu No. 1 constituency. After rejoining the 
party, she also engaged in psychological warfare with Yukari Sato, 
46, who had won a seat under the proportional representation segment 
in the previous election. Noda ultimately won informal endorsement 
 
TOKYO 00000304  002 OF 011 
 
 
in January for the next race. Evidenced by her report on her efforts 
for consumer issues to Prime Minister Fukuda, who has a deep 
interest in consumer administration, there is a growing presence of 
Noda in the Diet at Nagatacho. 
 
Meanwhile, Sato's support association on Jan. 30 presented LDP 
headquarters with signatures of 22,000 voters opposing the 
lawmaker's move from the Gifu No. 1 constituency. Her support group 
executive said: "(Official endorsement of) Ms. Noda by the party 
would throw LDP supporters in the city of Gifu into turmoil. Some 
might even throw their support behind the DPJ." Sato, too, said: "I 
will conduct activities in Gifu until a formal decision is made." 
 
Party endorsement coordination work gained momentum in mid-January 
when LDP Election Strategy Council Chairman Makoto Koga commented: 
"Ms. Noda is closer to victory (than Ms. Sato). I'm hoping to find a 
new electoral district for her in February." The party leadership 
eyes announcing Sato's new electoral district at her fundraising 
party on Feb. 11. 
 
In the country, there are six constituencies, including Gifu No. 1 
district, where former "postal rebels" are vying for party 
endorsement with postal supporters salvaged under the proportional 
representation system. Former "postal rebel" Shunichi Yamaguchi, 57, 
indicated at his fundraising party that he had learned from a party 
executive of the party's likelihood to endorse him for the Tokushima 
No. 2 district, instead of Akira Shichijo, 56, who represents the 
proportional representation bloc. 
 
The battle between the ruling and opposition camps over 
road-construction revenues ended without plunging into "Diet 
dissolution in January," and the DPJ has shifted its focus to the 
fall or beyond. Why is the LDP still stepping up efforts to 
determine candidates centering on shoo-ins? 
 
It is obviously because the LDP is trying to apply pressure on the 
DPJ, which is ill-prepared for the next election. At the same time, 
if coordination work drags on, LDP candidates might get in each 
other's way and end up paving the way for a DPJ administration. 
 
LDP headquarters envisages the Tokyo No. 5 district for Sato. The 
local chapter pins high hopes on Sato, who has high name recognition 
and is a native of Setagaya Ward. The chapter decided at its meeting 
yesterday to make arrangements for accepting Sato. 
 
Sato's entry into the Tokyo No. 5 race has come as a surprise to the 
DPJ. Yoshio Tezuka, 41, who lost his seat in the previous election, 
noted: "I'm sure I will feel a lot of stress when vying with Ms. 
Sato." 
 
Coordination efforts have bogged down in the Yamanashi No. 2 and No. 
3 districts. 
 
At a meeting with the municipal assembly late last year, former 
General Council Chairman Mitsuo Horiuchi, 78, a former postal rebel 
who was reputed to retire from politics, declared that he would run 
in the Yamanashi second district. Kotaro Nagasaki, 39, who holds a 
proportional representation seat, is also determined to devote 
himself to the same district. 
 
The LDP Election Strategy Council thinks Nagasaki has momentum, 
although he was defeated by Horiuchi by a mere 900 votes in the 
 
TOKYO 00000304  003 OF 011 
 
 
previous race but later won over 1,000 party members. The party's 
independent election surveys reportedly also showed Nagasaki's 
dominance. But the election council cannot ignore the wish of 
Horiuchi, a former party executive. 
 
A battle is also underway in the Yamanashi No. 3 constituency 
between Takeshi Hosaka, 63, a former postal rebel, and Jiro Ono, 54, 
a former secretary to former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. 
 
Ono has recently increased the membership of his support 
organization 1.5 fold to 4,500. In the previous race, however, DPJ 
lawmaker Hitoshi Goto, 50, came in second by collecting about 2,000 
votes more than Hosaka. Ono came in third. If Hosaka and Ono again 
run in the next race, they might go down together. 
 
In the Fukuoka No. 11 district, Ryota Takeda, 39, and Kozo Yamamoto, 
59, are likely to vie for party endorsement for the fourth time. 
 
In the Shizuoka No. 7 constituency, Minoru Kiuchi, 42, who lost his 
seat in the previous race, is expected to run as an independent 
against Satsuki Katayama, 48, who won party endorsement in the 
precious race. Party headquarters plans to endorse incumbents but it 
has not jettisoned the option of additionally endorsing postal 
rebels if they won. 
 
Party headquarters is also having a hard time in determining the 
treatment of the incumbents who won proportional representation 
seats without running in single-seat constituencies. 
 
Former Minister of State for Declining Birthrate Kuniko Inoguchi, 
55, who was placed at the top of the LDP proportional representation 
list for the Tokyo bloc, has played up her presence, holding a party 
to celebrate the publication of her recent book. However, it has not 
been decided whether she will run in the race from a single-seat 
constituency. There is a talk that Taku Otsuka, 34, who won a seat 
despite his being tanked the 29th on the party's proportional list 
for the Tokyo bloc, will run in the Tokyo No. 5 district. Yukari 
Sato is likely to move there, however. 
 
Taizo Sugimura, 28, of the southern Kanto bloc, a graduate of a 
Sapporo high school, aims to move to the Hokkaido No. 1 district 
with no LDP candidate. But unhappy with his comment to run in the 
No. 1 district even as an independent, the local chapter is backing 
Gaku Hasegawa, 36, a founder of the Soran Festival. 
 
Sugimura, along with Sato, is a symbol of "Koizumi's children." An 
LDP executive indicated that fielding Sugimura against the DPJ's 
possible candidate, Takahiro Yokomichi, a former Lower House 
Vice-Speaker, would help bring about a favorable wind for the 
party's overall election campaign. 
 
Meanwhile, the Hokkaido chapter is alarmed at New Party Daichi 
Representative Muneo Suzuki's contact with Sugimura. If Sugimura 
runs in the constituency backed by Daichi, Hasegawa would have to 
compete with him. "Mr. Sugimura's determination is firm to run in 
the race, but we cannot overturn the local decision at this point." 
Unable to file a request with party headquarters for endorsing 
Hasegawa, the Hokkaido chapter is troubled. 
 
(2) Respective interests of ruling, opposition parties 
criss-crossing over talks to revise special-purpose road 
construction revenues 
 
TOKYO 00000304  004 OF 011 
 
 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Almost full) 
February 5, 2008 
 
The ruling and opposition parties have yet to decide what approach 
to take to Diet deliberations on special-purpose road construction 
revenues, which are expected to move into full gear shortly. The 
Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ or Minshuto) strategy is to focus 
on the abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate and 
reallocation of road funds. However, DPJ members remain cautious 
about the proposed talks to revise the ruling parties' bill amending 
the Special Tax Measures Law due in part to their alarm about their 
agreement leading to a "grand coalition." Many Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP) members of the road policy clique in the Diet are 
strongly resisting holding revision talks with the opposition 
parties. The cautious argument is slightly outdoing the positive 
argument. 
 
DPJ to submit bill to reallocate road funds for other uses: Still 
alert to grand coalition initiative 
 
Calling for reallocations of road funds for other uses, the DPJ is 
determined to thoroughly pursue the appropriateness of the 
government's mid-term plan to inject approximately 59 trillion yen 
in the construction of roads over the next 10 years. It intends to 
submit to the Diet a bill scrapping the road construction revenues 
special exemption law and a bill abolishing the system of local 
governments sharing the burden of government-controlled road 
construction or river works for the purpose of making up for 
approximately 900 billion yen in a tax revenue shortfall that local 
governments are expected to suffer as a result of its proposal for 
abolishing the provisional tax rate. 
 
The Lower House speaker and the Upper House president recently 
brokered a deal between the ruling and opposition camp. The 
agreement reached between the two camps, which noted that a certain 
degree of conclusion be reached on the bill amending the Special Tax 
Measures Law before the end of this fiscal year, included the 
consensus that the legislature is to make changes to matters on 
which each party agreed. 
 
Because the government proposal is now likely to be adopted by the 
end of Marc, some senior DPJ members are calling for searching for a 
way to revise the amendment bill in order to achieve as much as 
possible, when the provisional gas tax rate expires. Tadayoshi 
Ichita, head of the Japanese Communist Party Secretariat told a news 
conference on Jan. 4, "I do not think revising the bill is a mistake 
if it is done in a manner that would benefit the public." 
 
However, one senior Upper House member underscored, "We should not 
settle for a cross between our bill and the ruling party-sponsored 
bill." DPJ members are caught on the horns of dilemma with many of 
them still alert to the possibility of the proposed revision talks 
leading to a reemergence of the old "grand coalition" initiative. 
 
Ruling parties 
 
LDP Secretary General Bunmei Ibuki during a press conference on Jan. 
4 made an ironical remark on the DPJ's stance toward special-purpose 
road construction revenues, saying, "The DPJ is projecting an image 
of its being a party with a foggy policy. Regarding a revision of 
the ruling parties' bill amending the Special Tax Measures Law, he 
 
TOKYO 00000304  005 OF 011 
 
 
stressed, "We have no intention whatsoever of calling on the DPJ to 
come to the negotiating table." Hidehisa Otsuji, chairman of the LDP 
Caucus in the Upper House during a press conference categorically 
said, "It is illogical for the ruling party to propose revision 
talks right now." 
 
An argument approving revisions to the bill has surfaced in the 
ruling camp, reflecting a cooperative mood generated after the 
ruling and opposition parties reached an agreement on the 
provisional gas tax rate. However, if talks with the opposition camp 
get to specific arguments, such as shortening the period to maintain 
the provisional tax rate from 10 years or expanding road funds 
subject to reallocations for other uses, ruling party members, 
mainly those involved in the road policy, are bound to put up 
resistance. The argument positive about holding revision talks is 
swiftly losing steam among leadership members with one noting, "It 
would be wiser for the DPJ to determine what approach it will 
take." 
 
Members of the road policy clique in the Diet are stepping up their 
offensive. General Council Chairman Toshihiro Nikai on Jan. 4 met 
with Ibuki and Diet Policy Committee Chairman Tadamori Oshima and 
pressed them not to revise the bill. Highways Research Commission 
Chairman Yuji Yamamoto the same day opposed a plan to shorten the 
period to retain the provisional tax rate, noting, "The issue should 
not be decided in a matter of one or two months." 
 
Deputy DPJ Chairman Naoto Kan criticized Nikai, saying, "It is 
visible from his face that he is determined not to give up on his 
vested interests." The ruling camp also intends to pursue Kan on 
this issue. The LDP on Jan. 4 submitted to Kan a paper seeking a 
correction of his remark and an apology and asked him to reply by 
the evening of the 5th. 
 
(3) Suprapartisan group, including Kato, Yamasaki, to visit South 
Korea - aiming to pave way for political realignment? 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 2, 2008 
 
A suprapartisan group, including Liberal Democratic Party members 
Koichi Kato and Taku Yamasaki, will visit South Korea on Feb. 10-11. 
The lawmakers are scheduled to meet president-elect Lee Myung Bak in 
Seoul on the 11th. The group will be formed by more than 10 
lawmakers from the LDP, the New Komeito, the Democratic Party of 
Japan, the Social Democratic Party, and other political parties. 
Seeing this, some observers speculate that the visit might be 
intended to pave the way for rallying together liberal forces, with 
an eye on a fluid political situation after a next House of 
Representatives election. 
 
Kato and Yamasaki met Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda at the Prime 
Minister's Office yesterday and explained the purpose of their 
planned visit to South Korea. Fukuda said: "I think the visit by a 
suprapartisan group is good. I expect some positive results will be 
produced in the visit." DPJ members Yoshito Sengoku and Yukio Edano, 
and SDP member Kiyomi Tsujimoto are also members of the delegation. 
 
Kato said: "A suprapartisan group should discuss sensitive 
diplomatic issues with the other side," emphasizing the significance 
of the delegation. The participation of the DPJ members, who have 
distanced themselves from President Ichiro Ozawa, has touched off 
 
TOKYO 00000304  006 OF 011 
 
 
speculation. One delegate commented: "This is a group of those 
keeping their distance from Mr. Ozawa." 
 
(4) Outcome of Iwakuni mayoralty race and Lower House by-election to 
be touchstone for Abe's resurgence 
 
SENTAKU (Page 45) (Full) 
February 2008 
 
In February, a mayoralty election will be held in Iwakuni, Yamaguchi 
Prefecture, to fill the post that fell vacant due to the resignation 
of former Mayor Katsusuke Ihara, who opposes the U.S. plan to 
relocate carrier-based fighter jets to U.S. Marine Corps Air Station 
Iwakuni. There will also be held a House of Representatives 
by-election in April for the Yamaguchi No.2 electoral district. The 
outcome of these two races may provide a clue as to whether former 
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who hails from Yamaguchi Prefecture, will 
be able to return to the center stage of politics. 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has fielded former Lower 
House member Yoshihiko Fukuda, an Iwakuni native, as the rival 
candidate against Ihara, who will run again in the mayoralty race. 
Incumbent Lower House member Hideo Hiraoka of the Democratic Party 
of Japan, who was elected in the proportional representation Chugoku 
bloc of the 2005 Lower House election after being defeated by Fukuda 
in the Yamaguchi No. 2 single-seat constituency, will run in the 
upcoming by-election for the Diet seat vacated by Fukuda. Although 
the LDP has not picked any candidate for the Lower House 
by-election, the names of two House of Councillors members -- Nobuo 
Kishi, Abe's younger brother, and Yoshimasa Hayashi -- have been 
already floated as possible candidates. 
 
Ihara, who overwhelmingly won the previous mayoral race, is a strong 
candidate. Since the DPJ's Hiraoka, now a candidate for the Lower 
House by-election, was defeated by a narrow margin by Fukuda, the 
LDP cannot take the race lightly. For Abe, who has resumed his 
official duties, the LDP's victory in both elections would become a 
touchstone for his resurgence. Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori 
has reportedly fired Abe up by saying: "We have to win both 
elections under your initiative." 
 
(5) LDP's Yamasaki expects Prime Minister's assurance of visit to 
North Korea 
 
SENTAKU (Page 45) (Full) 
February 2008 
 
Taku Yamasaki, former vice president of the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP), has been feeling out the right timing for 
him to make a visit to North Korea. He set up a sub-commission in 
the party's Foreign Affairs Research Commission, which he chairs, 
and picked former defense chief Seijuro Eto, who has close ties with 
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, to chair the sub-committee. He is full 
of bluster, saying: "I want to get the Prime Minister's assurance so 
that I will be able to do something to resolve the abduction 
issue." 
 
It was Yamasaki who engineered the second visit to Pyongyang by then 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2004. Reportedly, Yamasaki's 
cold shoulder to Fukuda at that time led to the resignation of 
Fukuda as chief cabinet secretary. However, Yamasaki and Fukuda, who 
are both 72, were classmates at Waseda University. When they were 
 
TOKYO 00000304  007 OF 011 
 
 
college students, they met at Fukuda's home since their fathers, 
graduates of the University of Tokyo, were friends. 
 
Fukuda heaped accolades on Yamasaki in a meeting he attended at the 
beginning of this year, saying: "I have been associated with Mr. 
Yamasaki for a half century. He has given me guidance regarding 
North Korean issues." Yamasaki is likely making approaches to 
Fukuda's aides, saying: "It is time for the Prime Minister to put me 
to good use." 
 
(6) Kazamidori (Weathercock) column: Japan will be forced to choose 
between U.S. and China, if the latter is democratized 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
February 3, 2008 
 
Katsuji Nakazawa 
 
Peking University is a major player in China's modern history. Late 
last year, when Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda was visiting China, he 
addressed students at this university. In the speech, the prime 
minister expounded on Japanese politics in a way that was easy for 
the students to understand by citing the so-called "political war" 
between Kakuei Tanaka and Fukuda's father Takeo Fukuda (who both 
served as prime ministers in the 1970s). Fukuda then expressed words 
of regret about past events (between Japan and China) and received a 
good response. The hidden focus of his speech was how to refer to 
human rights and other aspects of democracy at a bastion for China's 
pro-democracy movement. Whether rising China becomes a democratic 
nation has a new meaning for Japan. 
 
"It is important to pursue together such universal values as human 
rights, rule of law, and democracy. On the other hand, I think it is 
likewise important to pay attention to the common foundation and 
values embedded deeply in Japan and China." 
 
These remarks were modest compared with those previously uttered by 
American presidents, but Fukuda was the first Japanese prime 
minister to speak to Chinese students about democracy. By referring 
to Confucianism, a set of values both Japan and China hold in 
common, Fukuda drew a clear distinction from the former Abe 
administration's "value-oriented diplomacy," which emphasized shared 
values with the United States like democracy. 
 
With its economy growing, China has already become Japan's largest 
trading partner. The recent frenzy over tainted frozen "gyoza" 
dumplings that had come from China in this sense symbolizes the 
economic interdependence between the two countries. According to a 
private-sector forecast, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will 
outpace Japan's in five years, even though what will China's 
economic prospects once the 2008 Beijing Olympics are over are 
unknown. The existence of China as a major military power that is 
likely to become the world's second largest economic power in the 
2020s could change the security dynamics in the region. However, 
even in such a case, Japan's conclusion would be that the Japan-U.S. 
alliance will remain the axis of its bilateral relations. In other 
words, Japan remains crucial to security in Asia since its sits 
between the U.S. and China. Japan will defend the alliance with the 
U.S., with which Japan shares values, and in so doing, forestall 
China. 
 
But what should Japan do if its neighboring big power is 
 
TOKYO 00000304  008 OF 011 
 
 
democratized? Such a China would force Japan to choose between the 
U.S. and it, given the similar traditional culture and political 
systems both countries inherit. Should China (become a democratic 
nation), the U.S., too, would revise its previous views of China. 
Calls for a review of Japan's continuing dependence on the U.S. 
since the end of World War II would gain momentum in Japan, even 
though it is not that Japan would be simply forced to choose between 
the U.S. and China. 
 
Two years ago, an exchange meeting was held in Beijing between the 
ruling parties of the two countries. Hidenao Nakagawa, then chair of 
the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) Policy Research Council, 
suggested gently to Li Zhanghun, a member of the Politburo Standing 
Committee for Propaganda of the Communist Party of China: "I hope 
China will follow a democratic process in a moderate manner." But 
the Chinese side made no response to this proposal. 
 
The question of when elections will be held is talked about in 
China, but China is highly cautious about political reform. The day 
after Fukuda's speech, China approved Hong Kong having a direct 
election of its administrator in 2017. This move would inevitably 
spill over into the Chinese continent. 
 
One young Chinese researcher was filled with expectation: "The road 
for China to reach the top in the economic area in 2017 is now 
visible. I think there will be a kind of experiment in Hong Kong, 
with China itself gradually shifting to a democratic country in 
years after 2020, when it would achieve the goal of turning a 
society where the public realizes affluence." A Japanese official 
concerned with Japan-China diplomatic relations predicts that a 
significant change will emerge around 2020. This official continued: 
"Those who spent their days freely as college students and who 
experienced the pro-democracy movement after the Great Cultural 
Revolution will become senior members of the Communist Party of 
China its Conventions in 2017 and in 2022. Political reform without 
fail would then begin." 
 
The government's foreign policy has been affected by the Japanese 
public's views of other countries. Regarding the Japanese public's 
sense of identity, Tatsuru Uchida, professor at Kobe College, noted: 
"(The Japanese public) shifted the 'national object of desire' from 
China to the U.S. in the 1850s" (in his book Gaijo no America Ron 
(Views of America on Japanese streets). Japan since the dawn of 
history until the recent modern times was aware of the existence of 
a strong power on the Asian Continent, but with Commodore Perry's 
arrival in Japan, Japan abandoned the declining Qing state. Japan 
since the Meiji Era (1868-1912) has flattered itself that it has 
risen to the top in Asia. All the more for that reason, Japan is 
somewhat embarrassed at the thought that somewhere down the road its 
status in the international community will be slip back. 
 
Fukuda is viewed as a pro-Chinese politician, but according to an 
aide, "Even he realized through his recent overseas trip the rise in 
China's influence and the decline in Japan's status." He therefore 
set up a panel of experts to discuss how the Prime Minister's 
Official Residence (Kantei) should take the diplomatic lead. One 
subject for discussion there will be China. 
 
An important question for Japan will be what to do if China 
outstrips Japan on the economic front. The current mutually 
beneficial strategic partnership would then reach the end of its 
shelf life. For Japan, then, it is indispensable to envision the 
 
TOKYO 00000304  009 OF 011 
 
 
long-term case of China becoming a democratic country. Who could 
predict 19 years ago, when the Tiananmen Square Incident occurred, 
that China would became an economic power today? The same holds true 
of the possible emergence of a pro-democratic China. 
 
(7) Risks cannot be completely removed through blanket BSE testing 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Slightly abridged) 
February 4, 2008 
 
A number of Japanese people believe that Japanese beef is safer than 
U.S. beef, because Japan requires all cattle to be tested to prevent 
BSE before they are slaughtered. Many people believe that Japan has 
introduced the most rigorous inspection system in the world. 
 
Hideaki Karaki, an honorary professor at the University of Tokyo, 
pointed out in an article carried in a magazine issued by the Japan 
Veterinary Medical Association last June: "It is not well known that 
there is a possibility of infected cows being overlooked even with 
blanket testing." 
 
The U.S. and Europe subject only cattle 30 months of age or older to 
BSE testing. In the U.S., only some of such cattle are tested. 
 
In the case of calves to which BSE-prone meat-and-bone meal was 
given, abnormal prions concentrate first in some parts of the small 
intestine and then slowly build up in the brain. In six months 
before infected cows begin to show symptoms, abnormal prions 
increase to a level high enough to be confirmed by BSE testing. 
 
In Britain, more than 170,000 cases of BSE have been reported. The 
average age when symptoms began to appear in the cattle was 60 
months, with cases of the start of symptoms at less than 30 months 
of age only totaling 81 cows. Calculations show that only one out of 
every 2,000 infected cows were found infected with the disease at 
the age of under 30 months. 
 
Following the first discovery of the first case of BSE in Japan in 
September 2001, the government in its draft plan on a new inspection 
system set the minimum age of cattle subject to testing at 30 
months. But the government decided to introduce a blanket testing 
system, reflecting growing calls from some lawmakers, although few 
countries have adopted the system. It was a political judgment for 
the sake of putting people "at ease." The Ministry of Health, Labor 
and Welfare has decided to finally review the blanket testing system 
this summer, but an increasing number of local governments have 
decided to independently continue blanket testing. 
 
Of the abnormal prions, 99 PERCENT  are accumulated in the brain or 
vertebral columns. In Western countries, removal of all specified 
risk materials (SRM) is mandatory. 
 
Japanese meat-processing plants also remove SRMs, but this 
requirement is regarded as no more than "support for BSE testing." 
That was why Japan and the U.S. long remained far apart in 
negotiations on Japan's resumption of U.S. beef imports. 
 
A set of international standards for BSE measures determined by the 
World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) includes: (1) removal of 
SRMs; and (2) prohibiting the practice of pithing. No provisions for 
testing are included in the criteria. Pithing is a slaughtering 
technique in which the brain of the animal is scrambled with a rod 
 
TOKYO 00000304  010 OF 011 
 
 
stuck into the stun hole to reduce or eliminate reflex kicking as 
the animal dies. But Western countries ban pithing on animals 
intended for human consumption because it may lead to the spread of 
fragments of neural matter throughout the carcass. 
 
In Japan, however, slaughterhouses still carry out the practice of 
pithing. Yoshihiro Ozawa, honorary advisor to the OIE, commented: 
"The government has conducted no satisfactory testing to check if 
all SRMs were removed. The practice of pithing continues even now." 
 
Based on the international standards, OIE classifies countries' BSE 
countermeasures into three ranks. The U.S. is included in the 2nd 
rank - countries having controlled BSE risk - but Japan and Britain 
are in the third category - countries with undetermined risk of BSE. 
Only the Japanese people are unwitting of this fact. 
 
(8) Increasing food self-sufficiency ratio to 45 PERCENT  extremely 
difficult due to shrinking arable land 
 
YOMIURI (Page 9) (Full) 
February 5, 2008 
 
Japan's food self-sufficiency ratio has dropped to the lowest level 
among the industrialized countries. A primary reason for this is 
that consumption of rice, a commodity that Japan can supply its own 
needs, is on the decrease, while consumption of Western foods, most 
of which such as meat are imported from abroad, is on the increase. 
A second factor is the government's inability to respond well to the 
declining agriculture sector and the changing needs of consumers. 
The government aims to increase the food self-sufficiency ratio on a 
calorie supply basis to 45 PERCENT  by 2015, but reaching this goal 
will be extremely difficult indeed. 
 
Japan's food self-sufficiency ratio is remarkably low, compared to 
other major industrialized countries. For instance, the comparative 
figures in 2003 (fiscal 2003 for Japan) show that the food 
self-sufficiency ratios of the United States and Australia, both of 
which are food-exporters, exceed 100 PERCENT  as one can expect, but 
even in Europe, countries other than Switzerland supply 50 PERCENT 
or more of their own needs. As an agricultural power, France's food 
self-sufficiency ratio comes to 122 PERCENT . 
 
In the case of Japan, however, per capita consumption of its staple 
food, rice, has halved to an annual 61.0 kg as of fiscal 2006, 
compared to peak consumption of 118.3 kg in fiscal 1962. As for 
other grains, Japan depends highly on imports, with its 
self-sufficiency ratios for wheat and soybean being 13 PERCENT  and 
25 PERCENT , respectively. The tendency for consumers to move away 
from rice as a staple has had a significant impact on Japan's food 
self-sufficiency. 
 
A rise in the consumption of beef, pork, and chicken also has 
affected Japan's food self-sufficiency ratio. With the gradual 
import liberalization of livestock products, a large number of 
low-priced products have become available in Japan. 
 
Even though livestock are domestically raised, Japan must import 75 
PERCENT  of their feed, such as corn. Japan's self-sufficiency ratio 
for livestock, after taking into account the import ratio of feed, 
is a mere 16 PERCENT . 
 
Shortage of farmers 
 
TOKYO 00000304  011 OF 011 
 
 
 
Accompanying the return of high economic growth after World War II, 
the structure of the economy shifted from the primary sector -- 
agriculture and fisheries -- to mining and manufacturing and the 
service industry sectors. 
 
The area of arable land, which is key to a viable food supply, 
declined to 4.65 million hectares in 2007 from the peak of 6.086 
million hectares in 1961. With a serious shortage of farm hands, 
owing to the aging population, farmable acreage that is no longer 
cultivated has reached 390,000 hectares, which is equal to the area 
of Saitama Prefecture. 
 
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 
(MAFF), 11 kg of forage crops are needed in order to produce 1 kg of 
beef or 7 kg of pork. In order for Japan to raise its food 
self-sufficiency ratio to 100 PERCENT , without changing the current 
eating habit by the Japanese, MAFF calculates that Japan needs some 
17 million hectares of arable land, nearly four times as large as 
the current area of arable land, including that used to grow feed. 
 
The government declared in its "Annual Report on Food, Agriculture 
and Rural Areas in Japan" (released in March 2005), which sets basic 
agriculture policy course for the future, that Japan will aim to 
improve its food self-sufficiency ratio to 45 PERCENT . This ratio 
will make it possible for Japan to secure per capita consumption of 
2,020 kilocalories if potatoes are cultivated in portions of rice 
paddies and vegetable fields, even if imports of food were 
suspended. 
 
Improving eating habits is crucial 
 
It is, however, questionable whether Japan can attain the goal of 45 
PERCENT . 
 
For instance, MAFF has assumed that crop yields of major product 
items, such as rice, wheat, and feed per hectare will be improved by 
3-20 percent from the previous year in order to make up for a 
decrease in the area of arable land to 4.5 million hectares. 
 
MAFF also has assumed that the people will improve their eating 
habits by reducing fat intake, which is high in calories, and 
instead increasing their consumption of rice. But the reality is 
that the amount of fat the people consumed in fiscal 2006 increased 
from the previous year. 
 
In addition, there are many other challenges for Japan to address 
besides improving the food self-sufficiency ratio. 
 
For instance, the government restricts countries from which Japan 
imports wheat to three countries, namely, the United States, Canada, 
and Australia. But there are those who point out the need to broaden 
the number of countries from which wheat is imported. The government 
also stockpiles a 0.2-2.5-month supply of rice, wheat, and soybeans, 
but discussion of reviewing such a rainy day reserve has begun. 
 
DONOVAN