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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0149/01 0581523
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271523Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6740
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000149 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AL
 
SUBJECT: THE RESURRECTION OF FATOS NANO?  WE'RE STILL WAITING 
 
REF:  A) 07 TIRANA 659, B) 07 TIRANA 637, C) 07 TIRANA 26 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The role of former Prime Minister Fatos Nano in 
Albanian politics has been debated widely, particularly since his 
fall from the Prime Ministership and resignation as chair of the 
Socialist Party (SP) in 2005.  Relinquishing the SP mantle to Tirana 
Mayor Edi Rama seemed uncharacteristic at the time for the man who 
is an ambitious political operator, and he was expected to rise 
again.  So far his political intentions have not been clarified, and 
his actions since 2005 lack cohesiveness.  Some insiders believe he 
has shifted his focus to business and personal interests ahead of 
politics; others expect his political ambition remains unquenched, 
and he waits only for an opportunity to return prominently to the 
national scene.  Nano's recent flirtation with Movement for 
Socialist Integration (LSI) Chair and former Prime Minister Ilir 
Meta has set Tirana abuzz with speculation that his comeback is 
about to begin.  Certainly, few here believe he has departed the 
political stage for good.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) In 2005, the SP lost its parliamentary majority and its 
leader, Fatos Nano, lost the post of Prime Minister.  He 
subsequently resigned the party chairmanship and Tirana Mayor Edi 
Rama was chosen the new leader of the opposition.  Fatos Nano, 
four-time prime minister and chair of the SP since its 1991 
beginnings (interrupted only by the four years he spent in jail for 
corruption), was rejected by the party.  He left quietly, returning 
to his business interests while maintaining his seat in parliament 
(but participating only rarely in its sessions). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Nano remained a force in the SP, splitting the party with 
his core group of supporters who had never supported Rama.  During 
the SP's boycott of local elections in early 2007, Nano used his 
influence against Rama to work behind the scenes (accompanied by 
public photo ops) with Prime Minister Sali Berisha to negotiate an 
end to the impasse and set the date and terms for elections.  (Ref 
C)  While his influence may not have been decisive, his return 
sparked rumors that he would quietly continue to assist Berisha in 
return for his support for the presidency in summer of 2007. 
Whether or not such a bargain was struck, Nano failed in his 
presidential bid after the third round of votes, and further 
fractured the opposition by publicly defining who was for him, and 
thus against Rama.  The MPs who voted for him for president, labeled 
the "Nano Six" were expelled from their party.  (Refs A and B) 
 
¶4.  (U) Nano next appeared again to rival Rama in the fall of 2007, 
taking the leadership of a group of the party who were dissatisfied 
with Rama's recent changes to the SP structure.  He embarked on a 
grassroots "listening campaign" to shore up his base of political 
support, only to abandon the effort after just four meetings.  Rama 
proceeded with a remarkably similar approach of his own, which has 
become a cornerstone of his populist approach to opposition 
leadership. 
 
¶5.  (U) Since then, some critics of Nano have gone public.  In a 
recent public interview, a former Nano loyalist, SP Member of 
Parliament Petro Koci, bitterly declared his deep disappointment in 
Nano, citing his unwillingness to follow through on his own 
political initiatives since 2005 and his refusal to show leadership 
(lacking a political platform or vision) despite continuing efforts 
to shore up a political base.  He accused Nano outright of pursuing 
short-term business interests at the expense of his political 
supporters, abusing their faith for financial gain while abandoning 
their causes. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Nano's public handshake with Berisha during the 
2006-7 election boycott (Ref C) was not viewed as the triumphant 
return of a statesman that Nano may have expected.  Although the 
meeting may have achieved a short term goal, the sight of Berisha 
seeking advice and support from a man rumored the most corrupt in 
Albanian politics, as well as his former arch rival, smacked of 
opportunism on both sides.  Nano's few initiatives since then - his 
campaign for the presidency and aborted "listening tour" - have not 
raised his stock with the public or within his party. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Theories abound regarding Nano's 
intentions.  Conspiracy buffs suggest he was outwitted by a 
Berisha-Rama agreement to deny him the presidency (by installing 
Bamir Topi in the position, Rama removed a key Democratic Party 
operative while Berisha got "his man" in the job) and is waiting for 
an opportunity to stage a comeback.  Others suggest Nano has put 
politics on hold to focus exclusively on business interests that 
will increase his personal wealth through existing political and 
social connections.  If this is true, he may have no need at this 
time for a political role beyond his seat in parliament.  Finally, 
it is possible that Nano's failure to take the presidency last year 
and the lack of momentum in his most recent political gambles 
demonstrate that Albania has moved past the Nano era.  However, few 
count him out.  His recent public flirtation with LSI's Meta -- who 
 
TIRANA 00000149  002 OF 002 
 
 
soon thereafter announced that LSI was removing itself from the 
opposition coalition with Rama's SP -- has sparked speculation of a 
new Nano-Meta partnership in the advent of next year's elections. 
In sum, few here are willing to discount the wily Nano as a residual 
force in Albanian politics or underestimate his ability to play 
hardball in staging a return to the political scene. 
WITHERS