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UNCLAS SEOUL 000317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y  (SLUG LINE INFO HAS BEEN REMOVED) 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KS
SUBJECT: STIFF COMPETITION FOR GNP SEATS IN BUSAN 
 
 
¶1. (U) This message is from the American Presence Post (APP) in 
Busan, Korea. 
 
¶2. (U) With the April 9 general elections less than 60 days away, 
competition for Grand National Party (GNP) seats is setting new 
records.  Spurred on by Lee Myung-bak's landslide victory in the 
presidential election in December 2007, GNP hopefuls flocked to the 
party's registration venue on February 5 to sign up for a chance to 
join the 299-seat parliament. Although the city of Busan has only 18 
seats to offer, it serves as an example of the strong competition 
within the party that is likely throughout the GNP's stronghold in 
southeastern part of the Peninsula.  If the GNP nominating committee 
pays any heed to the constituent's voices as expressed in recent 
polls, a large turnover in the lawmaker ranks is likely as well as a 
new trend away from older incumbents and lawmakers without business 
savvy.  Despite a vocal feud between factions within the party that 
threatens to divide supporters, the GNP is likely to win a 
resounding victory on April 9.  END SUMMARY. 
 
GNP'S ROOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) When voters go to the polls on April 9 to cast their votes 
for members of the National Assembly, pundits predict that the Grand 
National Party (GNP) will capture a majority of the seats. 
Following the landslide victory of Lee Myung-bak in the December 
2007 presidential election, Koreans are getting behind the 
president-elect and his party in large numbers.  The GNP had to 
extend the registration deadline for the upcoming election due to 
the unprecedented volume of 1,173 interested persons hoping for one 
of 243 seats in the parliament.  In the Busanjin A District alone, 
there were an estimated 20 candidates contending for the GNP 
nomination (although only 12 decided to officially register) to 
reclaim the seat occupied by Kim Byung-ho who defected from the GNP 
to support Lee Hoi-chang in the run-up to the December 2007 
presidential election. 
 
¶4. (U) Busan and the neighboring Gyeongsang Provinces have long been 
a base for the GNP and its conservative predecessors.  In the 2004 
election, GNP candidates swept 60 out of 68 constituencies in the 
Gyeongsang provinces.  Almost half of the GNP lawmakers in the 
National Assembly (63 out of 130 lawmakers) hail from this 
southeastern region.  In the 2000 and 2004 legislative elections, 
support for the GNP in this region averaged over 50 percent. 
 
LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON 
--------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Although not a new concept itself, in this election season 
there are an unusually high number of candidates who are the sons of 
former lawmakers.  In Busan alone, there are four such candidates 
who are running for one of the 18 seats. The list includes Park 
Jae-woo, son of six-term lawmaker and former National Assembly 
Speaker Park Kwan-yong; Jang Je-won, son of two-term lawmaker and 
former National Assembly Vice-Speaker Jang Sung-man; Choi Jae-wan, 
son of six-term lawmaker Choi Hyung-woo; and Kim Se-yeon, son of the 
late Kim Jin-jae, a five-term lawmaker. Kim Se-yeon's other 
connection to politics is that he is the son-in-law of the newly 
appointed Prime Minister Han Seung-soo. 
¶6. (U) In a meeting with emboff, Kim Se-yeon explained his 
motivations for running for office and how the political landscape 
was changing in the run-up to the April election. Kim said that his 
father unexpectedly died in 2005, weeks after being diagnosed with 
cancer.  Given the abruptness of his father's death, the younger Kim 
said that he felt he needed to complete his father's work. Being 
only 36 years old and the father of three children, including 
two-month old twins, Kim confided that the timing of the elections 
was not the best. He said that he had not envisioned becoming a 
politician but had planned to run the family's industrial belt 
company, started by his grandfather in 1945.  But a sense of duty 
was more compelling that the other factors. 
 
¶7. (U) Looking at the well-outfitted campaign office and bustling 
staff, it is clear that Kim is taking the campaign seriously and 
should be in a good position to nudge out first-term lawmaker Park 
Seung-hwan. When asked about the plethora of staff and the nice 
office, Kim said that they were all "inherited" from his father. The 
building was his father's and most of the staff are volunteers who 
had worked for his father in years past. Despite the paternal 
reasons for running for office, Kim also represents a new age of 
politicians in Korea who come from a business background and are 
intent on improving Korea's economy.  Following Lee Myung-bak's win 
in the presidential election, many feel the door to a political 
career is wide open for those with a proven track record in the 
business world. 
 
A NEW BREED OF POLITICIAN 
------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Even though the GNP is expected to fare well in Busan and the 
Gyeongsang Provinces, this is not to say that the incumbents are 
guaranteed a spot in the 18th National Assembly. A recent poll 
conducted by Hankyoreh and Research Plus indicated that 40.6 percent 
of respondents said they wanted lawmakers in their constituencies to 
change while only 30.3 percent said they would support incumbents. A 
separate poll conducted by Kookje Daily News showed that only 6.1 
percent of Busan residents, 7.4 percent of Ulsan residents and 13.8 
percent of South Gyeongsang Province residents felt their lawmakers 
had done a good job representing their constituencies. 
 
¶9. (U) The committee responsible for screening general election 
candidates must have been listening to the public sentiment as they 
rolled out a plan on February 9 that included replacing three and 
four-term lawmakers, legislators in their 70's and many from the 
southeastern region.  Certain lawmakers who are considered morally 
suspect may also face replacement.  An editorial in the Chosun Ilbo 
said "It is time to replace the old trees with new ones" and called 
for a search among younger and more innovative candidates.  A 
preliminary analysis of the 1,173 people who filed an application to 
participate in the April 9 election showed that the average age of 
the applicants is 52 years.  About 283 applicants, or 24 percent, 
were businessmen, followed by 130 legal professionals, 91 professors 
and 33 journalists. 
 
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE VETERANS? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) Despite these calls for a younger generation of politicians, 
a total of twelve three-time lawmakers will run for a seat in Busan 
(four), Daegu (four), and North Gyeongsang Province (four).  At 
least a third of them are likely to fail to get nominations from the 
party. One Busan lawmaker stands out among the crowd of veterans. 
Kim Hyung-oh is a four-time lawmaker who is currently serving as the 
Deputy Chairman for President-elect Lee Myung-bak's transition 
committee.  Although Kim is occupying a prominent seat in the 
transition committee, most pundits discount the notion that he would 
accept a position in Lee's government over his seat in the National 
Assembly.  Dr. Lim Suk-jun, Political Science Professor at Busan's 
Dong-A University, told emboff that a position within the central 
government is fleeting; only likely to last for two or three years 
at best.  For someone who is still in the prime of their political 
career, such as Kim Hyung-oh, he is more likely to fight for his 
National Assembly seat in this round of elections.  Kim is more 
likely to seek out a ministerial position in two years once 
President Lee has had time to stabilize his cabinet and his focus as 
president. 
 
INTERNAL DISCORD 
---------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Another lawmaker from Busan, Kim Jung-hoon, echoed this 
sentiment and said that he expected to see half of Busan's 
incumbents to lose their seats in April.  But do not expect all of 
them to accept their fate quietly.  According to Kim, there is a 
chance that some of the lawmakers who do not get the coveted 
approval from the GNP election committee will flee the party and run 
as an independent in their district, thereby splitting the votes and 
opening the door for other parties to do better than expected. 
 
¶12. (U) There is also a factional divide within the GNP between 
loyalists to Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak.  The divide between 
the two groups first came into public view when the nomination 
committee announced on January 29 that it would strictly enforce the 
rule that any lawmaker who had been convicted on a crime would not 
be selected to run for a seat.  One of Busan's incumbent 
legislators, Kim Moo-sung (Park Geun-hye faction), quickly protested 
and said that if he was not deemed eligible to run on the GNP ticket 
he would leave the party along with a host of other Park loyalists. 
NOTE: Representative Kim was convicted in 1996 for accepting bribes 
and would be considered ineligible under strict interpretation of 
the GNP's nomination rules.  END NOTE.  But to maintain some 
semblance of fairness, the Lee faction would also be expected to 
make cuts in its lawmakers if Park's faction is reduced.  In Busan, 
this would mean that Lee-loyalist Kwon Chul-hyun would likely have 
to give up his seat if Kim Moo-sung is not able to run. 
 
SAFE, FOR NOW 
------------- 
 
¶13. (U) According to Professor Lim, decisions about who among the 
Lee-faction will survive may come down to trust.  In general, 
President-elect Lee does not trust politicians and therefore sees 
many of them as "expendable."  Despite this general apathy toward 
politicians, a few key GNP lawmakers from Busan have penetrated the 
inner sanctum of Lee's camp and gained his trust and therefore are 
more secure than others.  In addition to Deputy Transition Chairman 
Kim Hyun-oh, freshman lawmaker Park Heong-joon served as Lee's 
spokesperson during the election campaign.  Although not in the Lee 
faction, Representative Suh Byung-soo is the head of the influential 
Youido Institute, a GNP think tank, and is likely to retain his seat 
in Busan as well. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14. (U) The worst case scenario in Busan and other GNP strongholds 
is that the factional fighting between Park Geun-hye loyalists and 
Lee Myung-bak loyalists will not subside in time to prevent members 
from bolting their camp to join forces with Lee Hoi-chang and his 
New Freedom Party, an offshoot of the GNP.  Some sources indicate 
there may be as many as 20 lawmakers that could fall into this camp. 
 GNP Leader Kang Jae-sup will need to exert creative leadership to 
bring the two factions together as he did following the presidential 
primaries.  The GNP election committee needs to decide if it will 
enforce strict guidelines when choosing candidates or whether it 
will give in to the external pressure from the two factions and the 
party leader.  Just as it came down to the wire in the presidential 
primaries, the GNP is likely to get its act together just in time to 
pull out yet another resounding victory on April 9.