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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  7TH EDITION -- SPECIAL POLLING 
ADDITION -- VOLUME II 
 
REF: PANAMA 157 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons: 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Panama City broad sheet daily La Prensa stirred the 
political pot with the release of its latest installment of 
its "Pulse of Nation" poll series on February 22.  Democratic 
Change presidential candidate Ricardo Martinelli extended and 
even increased somewhat his lead as the opposition's 
preferred option.  Meanwhile, Minister of Housing Balbina 
Herrera, despite her strong assertions that she does not want 
to run for president (now), accelerated her lead and was far 
and away the preferred presidential candidate for the 
governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD).  Herrera's 
position at the top of the PRD poll contributed to a new 
round of speculation as to what her true political intentions 
were:  to run for Mayor of Panama City or to run for 
President.  Nobody was probably pondering that issue more 
than current Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro whom Herrera continues 
to pledge to support for the presidency.  Most analysts 
concur that the PRD scenario will not be clearer until after 
that party's March 9 convention, and that the opposition 
scenario will not be clearer until there is more definition 
in the internal Panamenista race. 
 
------------------------------- 
Employment Most Serious Problem 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Employment continued to top voters' list as the most 
serious problem confronting Panama, but the percentage 
indicating this concern has fallen steadily over the past two 
years:  26.6 percent in January 2008; 41.8 percent in January 
2007 and 56.5 percent in January 2006.  In second place, 
voters cited the cost of living as the most significant 
concern exploding over the past three years from 0.6 percent 
in 2006 and 7.3 percent in 2007 to 22.3 percent in 2008. 
Insecurity rolled in at third place with more than twice as 
many voters citing insecurity as the most significant problem 
in January 2008 (14.1 percent) over January 2007 (6.7 
percent); the total in January 2006 was 2.9 percent. 
Juvenile violence, corruption, public transport, health, 
crime/drugs, and social security were also cited as major 
concerns, though largely unchanged over the past three years 
and generally under 6 percent of the population citing them 
as concerns. 
 
¶3. (U) Asked to cite what should be the top three priorities 
for the government that would be elected in 2009, the results 
were as follows: 
 
Fighting unemployment/generating new sources of jobs: 18.9 
percent 
Fighting crime/ensuring greater security: 13.6 percent 
High cost of living and basic basket of goods: 11.8 percent 
Being sincere and honest: 8.7 percent 
Healthcare and social security: 6.8 percent 
Helping the public well-being and those most in need: 4.3 
percent 
Being a leader: 4.2 percent 
Corruption: 3.8 percent 
Education: 3.3 percent 
 
---------------------- 
Torrijos Losses Ground 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) More prospective voters evaluated President Torrijos' 
performance as bad or very bed and fewer evaluated it as good 
or excellent. 
 
                Oct '07     Nov '07     Dec '07     Feb '08 
                -------     -------     -------     -------- 
Excellent         6.6         6.9         9.0         6.3 
Good             48.5        50.3        49.9        45.1 
Bad              30.9        27.4        27.9        33.3 
Very bad          8.2         7.8         8.2        12.9 
Don't Know/Answer 5.8         7.6         5.0         2.4 
 
 
¶5. (U)  A majority of interviewees (58.9 percent) said that a 
cabinet change was necessary, down from 63.5 in January 2007. 
 A total of 34.8 percent said no cabinet change was 
necessary, up from 26.4 percent in January 2007.  The rest 
 
did not know or did not respond to this question. 
 
¶6. (U) Asked which minister or ministers needed to be 
changed, the following were the results: 
 
Min of Government and Justice Daniel Delgado Diamante:  48.8 
percent 
Min of Health Rosario Turner:  28.7 percent 
Min of Labor and Labor Development Edwin Salamin:  25.2 
percent 
Min of Education Belgis Castro:  22.8 percent 
Min of Public Works Benjamin Colamarco:  16.1 percent 
Min of Economy and Finance Hector Alexander:  8.1 percent 
Dir of the National Police Rolando Mirones:  7.2 percent 
Min of Housing Balbina Herrera:  5.5 percent 
All other ministers (combined):  5.1 percent. 
 
--------------------- 
Support for Democracy 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Nearly two-thirds of respondents (66.5 percent) 
believed that democracy, though imperfect, was the best 
system of government  An astonishing 29.6 percent said 
disagreed with this statement.  One-third of respondents 
between the ages of 18 and 29 (33.4 percent) disagreed with 
this statement.  Generally, the Electoral Tribunal (TE)  was 
believed to be transparent in it management of the 2009 
elections securing the support of 58.4 percent of 
interviewees.  A total of 31.1 percent of respondents 
indicated a lack of confidence in the TE. Overwhelming 
majorities agreed that presidential candidates should publish 
a list of their donors (87.0 percent) and that presidential 
candidates should make a public declaration of their personal 
financial assets (92.3 percent).  A total of 74.4 percent of 
respondents said that they would vote in 2009, and older 
voters were more committed to voting.  The poll revealed a 
tie between support for the government's candidates (38.7 
percent) and for the opposition's candidates (37.3 percent), 
and 24.0 percent of respondents did not know or respond. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Agreement on Presidential Qualities 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Government and opposition supporters basically agreed 
on the principal quality or qualities that they would like to 
see in a presidential candidate.  From most desired to least 
desired, respondents cited the following as their most sought 
after qualities (government; opposition):  honesty/integrity 
(34.7 percent; 44.1 percent), leadership (32.1 percent; 21.0 
percent), experience (21.4 percent; 18.9 percent), ethics 
(7.8 percent; 9.0 percent), and good sense (4.0 percent; 6.9 
percent). 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Martinelli Still the Opposition Favorite 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) At 34.8 percent, Democratic Change (CD) Party 
President Ricardo Martinelli remains the favorite opposition 
choice for president.  Trailing Martinelli by 21.6 points, 
Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) Party President and former 
President Guillermo Endara comes in at 13.2 percent. 
Panamenista Party presidential nomination aspirant Alberto 
Vallarino was in third place at 12.3 percent, nosing out 
Panamenista Pary President Juan Carlos Varela.  Patriotic 
Union (UP) President and former 1st VP Guillermo "Billy" Ford 
 and Panamenista presidential nomination contender Marco 
Ameglio pull up the rear at 1.3 and 0.9 percent respectively. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Balbina Governing Coalition's Favorite 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) Even though she has not declared herself to be a 
candidate for president -- and indeed insists publicly that 
she only wants to run for mayor of Panama -- Minister of 
Housing Balbina Herrera is the preferred candidate for 
president of the governing coalition (primarily the governing 
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD), but also the Popular 
Party and the Liberal Party).  Herrera outpaces current 
Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro more than two to one 
polling 41.3 percent to Navarro's 20.0 percent.  A total of 
4.3 percent voiced support for former President Ernesto "El 
Toro" Perez Balladares and 0.5 percent for current 1st VP and 
FM Samuel Lewis Navarro.  Nearly one out of every three PRD 
respondents cited "none" (9.8 percent) or "don't know/didn't 
respond" (20.8). 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Martinelli Still Leads "Likely Vote" Question 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Asked for whom they would vote for president, 
respondents gave Martinelli the lead with 26.3 percent 
support, up from 22.2 percent in September 2007 and from 22.7 
percent in July 2007.  Herrera was next at 21.6 percent, 
nearly doubling her support in September 2007 which was 10.3 
percent.  Navarro polled about half of Martinelli's support 
coming in at 13.3 percent, up nearly four points since 
September 2007 when he polled 9.4 percent.  Endara, 
Vallarino, Varela, and Perez Balladares pull up the rear at 
7.1, 5.8, 5.2, and 2.8 percent  While Endara and Perez 
Balladares basically held steady since the September 2007 
poll, Vallarino's support rose 1.3 percent and Varela's 
support nearly doubled from 2.3 percent. 
 
--------------------- 
PMG Seen as a Problem 
--------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) A majority of prospective voters (51.3 percent)  said 
that the election of Pedro Miguel Gonzalez (PMG) as President 
of the National Assembly had made "harmonic collaboration" 
between the executive and legislative branches more 
problematic.  A total of 53.6 percent of respondents -- up 
3.3 percent from October 2007 -- said PMG should resign. 
More respondents also felt that PMG should not resign up five 
points from October 2007 to 33.9 percent. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Wide Majority Support Inter-Party Primaries 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (U) An overwhelming majority (81.3 percent) believed that 
the opposition parties should hold an inter-party primary to 
select a sole opposition candidate. 
 
-------------- 
Technical Data 
-------------- 
 
¶14. (U) Panama City broad sheet daily La Prensa published its 
most recent installment of its "Pulse of the Nation" polling 
series in a special insert included in its Monday, February 
25 edition.  Dichter and Neira Latin Research Network 
conducted the poll for La Prensa conducting 1,200 
face-to-face interviews in people's homes.  The poll covered 
urban and semi-rural areas, but excluded the indigenous areas 
(comarcas) and Darien province.  Pollsters interviewed only 
men and women over the age of 18 who are residents in Panama. 
 The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percent with a 
level of confidence of 95 percent.  The field work was 
conducted from Friday, February 15 through Sunday, February 
¶17.  The age distribution was as follows: 
 
Age       Percentage 
-----     ---------- 
18-29     31.2 
30-39     25.5 
40-49     17.8 
50        25.5 
 
In the first stage, precincts (corregimientos) and census 
sections were selected randomly for each socio-economic 
level.  In the second stage, the selection of interview 
targets was according to random routes and at the stops along 
these routes one person, selected randomly for sex and age, 
was interviewed.  A total of 49.5 percent of interviewees 
were female, and 50.5 percent were male.  A total of 69 
percent of interviewees lived in urban areas, and 31 percent 
lived in rural areas.  A total of 67 percent expressed no 
political affiliation while 33 percent provided their 
political affiliation. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15. (C) There were not a lot of surprises in this poll. 
Martinelli continues to dominate the opposition, dwarfing 
Vallarino and Varela, the Panamenista Party's two most viable 
presidential contenders.  Panamenista contacts pointed with 
glee, however, to the overwhelming support for the 
inter-party primary, something Martinelli -- who 
characterizes the proposal as the "inter-planetary primary" 
and Endara continue to vehemently oppose.  Meanwhile, Varela 
and Vallarino claim to be beating the other two to one in the 
internal Panamenista race for the presidential nomination. 
Obviously, either Varela or Vallarino has to be wrong.  The 
problem is neither one seems to be doing any internal 
polling, and both appear to be operating blind.  This 
national poll suggests Vallarino has the edge, but Varela 
still controls the party machinery and Vallarino's national 
strength could obscure his weight inside the party.  The lack 
of clarity inside Panamenismo is stalling opposition 
coalition formation.  Movement of Liberal Republican 
Nationalists (MOLIRENA) President Sergio Gonzalez-Ruiz told 
POLCOUNS February 27 that, though he wanted to form a 
coalition with Martinelli, he could not bring along his party 
as long as it was not clear would head the Panamenista 
ticket.  Ditto for Ford who would like to steer UP into 
coalition with the Panamenista Party but who prefers 
Vallarino over Varela.  As for Endara, if he gets left on the 
sidelines for opposition coalition building, he will be dead 
politically.  Meanwhile, growing support for Herrera and one 
out of three PRD members refusing to indicate a preference 
for presidential candidate suggest a lack of enthusiasm for 
Navarro and indicate that the party is somewhat adrift.  The 
PRD scenario will not become clear, however, until after the 
party's March 9 convention. 
ARREAGA