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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  5TH EDITION -- THE POST-CARNIVAL 
EDITION -- VOLUME II 
 
REF: A. (A) PANAMA 77 
     ¶B. (B) PANAMA 103 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (C)  Panama's four-day Carnival celebration may have 
turned most of Panama City into a ghost town as Panamanians 
headed to the interior, the beaches, or Transismica, one of 
the city's main thoroughfares, to celebrate, but politics did 
not stop.  The Panama Post was able to button hole one 
Panamenista insider, perhaps the only working politico left 
in town, as well as to stay on top of a few other stories 
that are percolating along.  Our headlines for this edition: 
 
-- Former President Mireya Moscoso's aide predicts more talk 
of constitutional assembly (constituyente) in near future by 
Panamenista candidates; 
-- Panamenista presidential nomination candidates share views 
in La Prensa interview series; 
-- Democratic Change (CD) President and presidential 
candidate Ricardo Martinelli ties on his "chucks" and heads 
out to carnival; 
-- Patriotic Union (UP) President Guillermo "Billy" Ford 
presidential campaign posters appear; and 
-- Governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) begins 
"congresillos (little congresses)." 
 
End summary. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
"Expect to Hear More About Constituyente" 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) "You can expect to hear more about proposals for a 
constitutional assembly (constituyente," former President 
Mireya Moscoso's aide Eduardo Quiros told POLCOUNS on 
February 1, "beginning in March after the (governing 
Revolutionary Democratic Party) PRD holds its internal 
elections."  Quiros explained that Panamenista presidential 
nomination contender Marco Ameglio's call for a constituyente 
(REFTEL B) was not an isolated, desperate attempt for a 
trailing politician to grab headlines in the hopes of 
accelerating his campaign.  "There is broad support for 
constitutional reform.  The constitution we have today is 
basically a dictator's constitution," referring to former 
Panamanian strong man -- and father of current President 
Martin Torrijos -- Omar Torrijos.  Politically, the current 
constitution not only favored large parties, but it favored 
the PRD.  "Nobody understands the distribution of deputies 
between uninominal districts and plurinominal districts," 
respectively single representative and multiple 
representative districts.  Continuing, Quiros said a 
constituyente would be needed to rebuild the judiciary and 
legislature, promote greater decentralization, and rein in 
excessive presidential power.  "By putting forward a 
constituyente, Panamenistas can stand for change and put the 
PRD on the defensive protecting their dictator's 
constitution," Quiros added.  He said that he believed that 
traditional parties would dominate a constituyente and that 
non-PRD parties would be better represented than in the 
National Assembly, "reflecting more truly the political 
distribution of Panamanians."  "The Bolivarians and other 
leftists are not prepared for constituyente here in Panama. 
We have an opportunity to do this democratically and should 
do it now." 
 
¶3.  (C) Comment:  The Panama Post was surprised by Quiros' 
spirited arguments in favor of a constituyente.  This 
proposal definitely has deeper roots inside the Panamenista 
party than just one candidate.  Quiros estimated, probably 
correctly, that voter interest in a constituyente would be 
overshadowed by economic concerns.  That said though, by 
supporting a constituyente, the center-right Panamenista 
party can position itself as supporting dramatic change and 
renewal in Panamanian politics 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
La Prensa Interviews Help Frame Panamenista Candidates 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In three interviews with the Panama City broad 
sheet newspaper of record, "La Prensa," Panamenista 
presidential nomination contenders Juan Carlos Varela, Marco 
Ameglio, and Alberto Vallarino shared their views in articles 
that were published on February 2, 3, and 4 respectively. 
The Panama Post provides the following thumbnails of these 
interviews: 
 
-- Juan Carlos Varela:  In its February 2 article, La Prensa 
described Varela as "optimistic about his victory."  The 
paper reported that Varela described himself as "an apostle 
of service" in contrast to seeing politics as "an economic 
trampoline for personal benefit."  Answering a question 
regarding how much he intended to spend on his campaign, 
Varela offered, "There is only one bank account where 
everything that enters and leaves is recorded.  When the 
(electoral process) is over it will be made public." 
Varela's proposals include:  reducing the electoral subsidy 
that "in some cases merely supports an employee roll of the 
fallen" providing sinecure jobs in a party's administration 
to those who lost elections; improving the minimum wage; 
reducing taxes on "the professional classes;" strengthening 
local government through "municipal decentralization;" and 
closing down neighborhoods where families live in "sub-human" 
conditions and that act as "schools for criminals."  Also, 
Varela said he would "strengthen the police presence in 
conflict areas" and call for a "public contracting process to 
design and build a metropolitan transportation system." 
Summarizing his aims, Varela said, "To establish an efficient 
government that spends less and invests more.  Where 
advertising expenditures are reduced.  A strong government 
and clean hands." Varela, age 44, is the owner of Varela 
Hermanos, Panama's largest liquor producer.  He graduated 
from the Georgia Institute of Technology. 
 
--Marco Ameglio:  In its February 3 article, La Prensa 
highlighted the Ameglio's bill boards emblazoned with his 
slogan, "Charging ahead (Voy de frente)!"  Responding to the 
interviewers question regarding how it was that a former 
deputy like Ameglio did not enjoy any support from any of the 
Panamenista Party's current 16 deputies, Ameglio said, "My 
career is not a means to drag along the personal aspirations 
of spent deputies, mayors or precinct representatives."  On a 
possible constituyente, Ameglio said, "We need to establish 
the bases of a new republic. . . . Neither the Executive, 
Legislature, nor Judiciary are capable of self-correcting 
themselves.  It is the only way.  Of course there is risk for 
the constituted power (existing government structure), but 
power lies with the people (the constituting power)." 
Ameglio called for more police units, more training, and for 
action on transportation reform and an increase in the 
education budget.    Ameglio, refusing to state specifically 
how much he would spend on the campaign, asserted he would 
spend one-fourth of what his challengers would; "People 
support me because they believe in my proposals, not because 
I contracted them, nor because I bought them, nor because I 
offered to pay for their campaigns."  Ameglio is 46 years 
old, is the vice-president of his families dairy business 
Sociedad de Alimentos de Panama (Bonlac), and enjoys off-road 
motorcycle racing.  The son of Italian immigrants, he is 
married to Xenia Carles de Ameglio, and they have two sons, 
Marco and Roberto. 
 
-- Alberto Vallarino:  In its February 4 article, La Prensa 
noted that Vallarino had drawn the support of 10 Panamenista 
National Assembly deputies.  "I have been a Panamenista all 
my life.  I come from a Panamenista family.  My aunt Ana 
Matilde Linares as the first wife of Dr. Arnulfo Arias (the 
party's founder)."  He also notes that his grandmother and 
her son were wounded on May 10, 1951 during the violent 
overthrow of Arias.  Asked directly if he had former 
President Mosoco's support, Vallarino answered, "I have the 
support of thousands and thousands of Panamenistas. 
Responding to a question whether the Panamenista party would 
cede leadership of the opposition, Vallarino said, "I do not 
see why that would be necessary.  The Panamenista Party is 
the largest in the opposition."  "I have proposed holding 
interparty elections to choose the opposition's candidate." 
Vallarino said his top three priorities would be:  "Restoring 
tranquillity for the public, guaranteeing effective and 
efficient law and order, and creating dignified, well-paid 
jobs.  And correcting the social and economic distortions in 
such a way that we achieve as a country the eradication of 
extreme poverty and significantly reduce poverty."  Vallarino 
was born April 2, 1951, and both of his parents have passed 
away.  He holds a bachelors in engineering from Cornell where 
he also received an MBA.  Married to Adriana Lewis, he has 
three children. 
 
¶5.  (C) Comment:  At least for the Panamenista presidential 
contenders, "It's the economy, stupid," including: addressing 
economic concerns such as the rising cost of living and 
unemployment, creating more opportunity for economic 
opportunity and improving law and order to combat rising 
crime, which is seen as primarily an economically driven 
phenomenon.  Both Varela and Vallarino are striving to 
portray themselves as seasoned businessmen who have created 
jobs and opportunity.  Whereas Vallarino repeatedly returns 
to his and his family's close ties to the party's earliest 
days and its founder, Varela strives to position himself as a 
new kind of Panamenista who is a public servant with clean 
hands.  Ameglio, the most populist of the three and trailing 
badly, rejects Vallarino and Varela as political dilettantes 
and interlopers and portrays himself as the sole Panamenista 
toiling away in the trenches for the "people's" interests. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Martinelli Ties on "Chucks," Hits Carnival 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Having decided to stick with the same slogan as 
his last presidential campaign -- "Walking in the shoes of 
the people (Caminando en los zapatos del pueblo)" -- 
Democratic Change (CD) President and presidential candidate 
Ricardo Martinelli had to choose which shoes to wear.  Well, 
in the run up to Panama's 4-day carnival bacchanalia, 
Martinelli chose navy blue, Converse Chuck Taylor All-Stars, 
affectionately know as "chucks."  Martinelli's public choice 
of these cheap canvas and rubber basketball shoes -- first 
marketed by Converse in 1917, not worn for years with 
basketball players, but now favored by rockers, hip-hop 
musicians, and youth -- was a clear attempt to try to curry 
favor with what Martinelli has termed the "generation of 
change."  Martinelli then hit the streets across the country 
-- "chucks" strapped one -- to join the crowds "carnivaling 
(carnevaleando)."  Newspaper and television pictures showed 
Martinelli getting hosed down by the "soaker (mojadero)," 
pressing the flesh with carnival goers, and mugging with 
various carnival princesses. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Given that Panama only votes once every 
five years, an enormous quantity of new first-time voters 
will be entering the political market place in May 2009, 
between 400,000 and 500,000 voters between the ages of 18 and 
¶23.  Expect not only Martinelli, but also other presidential 
aspirants to expend significant political capital to tap into 
this vote rich demographic.  The Panama Post does not know 
whether Martinelli went with high-tops or low-tops (estimated 
value, according to Google, of USD 42 and 22 respectively), 
but will inform our readers once we know. 
 
---------------------------- 
Ford Campaign Posters Appear 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) During Carnival, Patriotic Union (UP) posters 
emblazoned with party president Guillermo "Billy" Ford's face 
and declaring, "The force of honesty (La fuerza de la 
honestidad)," began appearing in Panama City and along 
Panamanian by-ways.  The media took these adds as evidence of 
Ford's intentions to run for president, frequently noting 
that Ford has never denied being interested in moving into 
the Palace of the Herons (Palacio de las Garzas) Presidential 
Palace.  Several media outlets reported Ford's comment that 
he did not want to be anybody's "spare tire."  Asked 
separately if he would run (again) as Moral Vanguard of the 
People (VMP) presidential candidate Guillermo Endara's vice 
presidential candidate, Ford responded that he could not step 
down from his presidential candidacy without "conversations," 
presumably with UP faithful and prospective allies. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: Sure, Ford would love to be president, but he 
also told the Panama Post that he would prefer to steer UP 
into an alliance with the Panamenista ticket.  Given his 
acknowledgment that the Panamenistas would be loathe to take 
second billing and Ford's desire neither to be anybody's 
"spare tire" nor to run for a job he had already held (vice 
president), UP's advertising campaign appears to be more 
aimed at maintaining the UP profile than promoting Ford as a 
viable presidential candidate.  Indeed, the ads do not say 
anything about a presidential run nor even mention Ford's 
name, though his face is known to all Panamanians.  The adds, 
printed in UP's signature orange, display the party name in 
large block letters though.  The Panama Post assesses that 
Ford's game remains securing UP the best bargaining position 
for an eventual opposition alliance. 
 
 
----------------------- 
PRD Congresillos Begin 
----------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) On February 9, beginning in the Panama City exurb 
Capira, the governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) 
will hold its first of 21 congresillos  Each congresillo or 
little congress, pulls together the PRD delegates that were 
elected on January 12 for a party-defined geographic area to 
select representatives to represent that area on the party's 
National Directive Committee (CDN).  Delegates from the 8-2 
and 8-3 electoral circuits will meet on February 9.  The 
following is a schedule of the up-coming congresillos 
 
Date:      Area:              Delegates: 
-----      -----              ---------- 
Feb 9      8-2/8-3            119 
Feb 10     8-4                54 
Feb 12     8-8                241 
Feb 13     8-9                122 
Feb 14     8-10               226 
Feb 15     8-7                282 
Feb 16     Herrera            181 
Feb 16     Cocle              263 
Feb 17     Veraguas           401 
Feb 19     8-6                360 
Feb 21     Colon              271 
Feb 23     Bocas del Toro     144 
Feb 24     Chiriqui I         348 
Feb 24     Chiriqui II        254 
Feb 26     8-1                222 
Feb 29     8-5                183 
Mar 1      Los Santos         167 
Mar 2      Darien             65 
Mar 8      Embera Wounnan     18 
Mar 8      Kuna Yala          71 
Mar 8      Ngobe Bugle        208 
 
(Note:  Numbers refer to an electoral circuit.  Names refer 
to provinces, expect for the last three areas that 
"comarcas," or indigenous people's reservations.) 
 
¶10. (C) Comment:  As the congresillos get under way, the PRD 
now gets down to brass tacks and the arm twisting has already 
begun.  While President Martin Torrijos, First VP and FM 
Samuel Lewis, and Second VP and Minister of the Presidency 
Ruben Arosemena were all outside Panama, candidates for PRD 
president Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares (former 
President of the republic) and Balbina Herrera (current 
Minister of Housing) took advantage of the carnival holidays 
to hit the stump.  Behind the scenes, both El Toro and 
Balbina and their acolytes were striving to line up support 
in the congresillos  Both El Toro and Balbina have said that 
they will attend each congresillo  Ending the day before the 
PRD convention, congresillos will provide insight into the 
likely outcome and relative strengths of the various PRD 
players.  The Panama Post will be watching these congresillos 
closely and will keep its readers informed. 
EATON