UNCLAS    SENSITIVE     NICOSIA 00123

SIPDIS
CXNICOSI:
    ACTION: DCM EXEC
    INFO:   ECON POL DAO RAO

DISSEMINATION: EXEC
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB:RSCHLICHER
DRAFTED: POL:AMYIALLOUROU
CLEARED: POL:GMACRIS

VZCZCNCI997
OO RUEHC RUEHZL RUCNDT RUEHBS
DE RUEHNC #0123/01 0511623
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201623Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8586
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1077
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000123 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CHRISTOFIAS SEEMINGLY WINNING BATTLE FOR VANQUISHED 
PARTIES' VOTES 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Following incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos's 
failure to advance past the February 17 first round of presidential 
elections, the major parties supporting his candidacy, the 
Democratic Party (DIKO) and Socialist EDEK announced their decisions 
to support Communist AKEL leader Dimitris Christofias.  DIKO's 
decision astonished the Cypriot public since it was widely rumored 
that the party was set to support DISY-backed Ioannis Kasoulides. 
In fact, DIKO leader Marios Karoyian switched from Kasoulides to 
Christofias in a matter of hours, feeling pressure from the 
Presidential Palace but also attracted by the enticing offer to 
become House Speaker after Christofias's election.  Other 
influential figures and organizations are taking sides, the most 
notable among them Archbishop Chrysostomos II, who now strongly 
supports Kasoulides.  At first glace, the current party layout 
appears to favor Christofias, but if DISY succeeds in dividing the 
electorate into left and right, Kasoulides will stand an equal or 
even better chance to win this election.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
DIKO backs Christofias 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Following President Papadopoulos's surprise defeat on 
February 17, his main backer, the Democratic Party (DIKO), stunned 
the Cypriot public on February 20 with its decision to support 
former coalition partner Christofias in the February 24 runoff.  In 
what was described by the media as a thrilling, marathon night, DIKO 
moved from an early-afternoon position to support DISY-backed 
candidate Ioannis Kasoulides to a one a.m. decision to support 
Christofias.  Media and Embassy contacts within the parties 
concurred that DIKO's U-turn was engineered by Papadopoulos, who 
extracted promises from AKEL regarding his son, DIKO MP Nicolas 
Papadopoulos, and his political future.  According to the same 
sources, DIKO leader Marios Karoyan, who had supported Kasoulides' 
candidacy both in the meeting of the party secretariat and later in 
its executive committee, succumbed to Palace pressure and changed 
his position at the meeting of the central committee, which voted by 
112 to 50 for Christofias. 
 
¶3.  (U) Officially, Christofias's and Kasoulides's proposals to 
obtain DIKO's support did not have major differences.  DISY offered 
four or five ministries, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; 
the post of EU Commissioner should the current Commissioner Marcos 
Kyprianou accept the post of Foreign Minister; and the Presidency of 
the House of Representative in 2011.  Christofias offered three 
ministries, including Foreign Affairs and Interior, and the post of 
House President (with immediate effect, since it would be vacated 
with Christofias' election.)  Both assured DIKO that they would not 
revive the Annan Plan or any other similar plan and would use the 
July 8 Agreement to reach a viable and lasting Cyprus solution that 
safeguarded human rights and EU principles. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Parties and personalities take sides 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) DIKO'S decision was preceded by the decision of the other 
coalition partner, EDEK, to support Christofias.  The smaller 
parties that had endorsed Papadopoulos' candidacy, namely EUROKO, 
the Green Party and ADIK are yet to announce their decisions.  It is 
widely speculated that EVROKO will stay neutral while the Green 
Party has already given indications that it will support 
Christofias.  In statements to the press over the past two days, 
Green Party leader George Perdikes repeatedly said that 
Christofias's positions are closer to his own party's views.  All 
the parties are expected to announce their final decision by 
February 21.  AKEL's prodigal son, former Foreign Minister and 
Papadopoulos campaign coordinator George Lillikas, announced on 
February 20 that he will be by Christofias's side in the second 
round (we're not so sure Dimitris will want him there, however.) 
 
¶5.  (U) Meanwhile, Archbishop Chrysostomos II, one of Papadopoulos' 
most fervent supporters, announced on February 20 his support for 
Kasoulides.  In a strong-worded statement after a meeting with 
Kasoulides, the Archbishop stated that "the Church unreservedly 
urges the people to go to the polls en masse next Sunday and vote 
for Kasoulides." He said the two had reached an understanding 
regarding the Church's role in education and was confident of their 
cooperation in the next five years.  According to DISY sources, it 
is expected that many non-affiliated figures and organizations will 
announce their support for Kasoulides in the coming days.  Among 
them the EOKA 1955-59 fighters' organizations, who fear that if 
Christofias rises to power, he may open the files of the 
assassinations of AKEL members by EOKA in the 1950's and 1960's. 
Former DISY leader and independent Member of the European Parliament 
Ioannis Matsis also announced his support for Kasoulides, as did 
powerful right-wing labor union SEK. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Despite the serious setback of DIKO leadership's alignment 
with Christofias, DISY remains optimistic and seeks to inspire this 
confidence among its supporters.  One DISY contact recalled that 
Papadopoulos was elected in 2003 with just over 51 percent of the 
vote, then enjoying the full support of DIKO, AKEL, EDEK, and some 
smaller parties, which together commanded 60 percent of registered 
voters.  Christofias is in an even more disadvantageous position 
because he does not enjoy the full support of the DIKO and EDEK 
voters.  "There is a silver lining in every cloud," said the DISY 
source, explaining that, if Kasoulides gets elected without DIKO's 
official support, he will be free from any constraints to implement 
his own policies. 
 
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Comment 
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¶7.  (SBU) Kasoulides's chance to win next Sunday's election depends 
almost entirely on the success of DISY's ongoing effort to divide 
the electorate into the traditional left and right and to stir up 
anti-communist sentiments. AKEL, on the other hand, will seek to 
capitalize on its (albeit "soft") NO vote in the 2004 Annan 
referendum and the long history of cooperation with DIKO and EDEK. 
It is expected that Sunday's election will be another tight race 
between two very strong candidates.  DIKO's decision may appear to 
have given an edge to Christofias.  At the same time, however, it 
has angered many DIKO supporters who feel they are being manhandled 
in order to serve the political ambitions of some party cadres.