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FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0483
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6780
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RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
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RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS TRIES TO BREATHE LIFE INTO THE PARTY WITH 
STALE STRATEGIES 
 
REF: A. 06 CALCUTTA 578 
     ¶B. 07 CALCUTTA 11 
     ¶C. 07 KOLKATA 88 
     ¶D. 07 KOLKATA 145 
     ¶E. 07 KOLKATA 340 
     ¶F. 07 KOLKATA 345 
     ¶G. 07 MUMBAI 722 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The rattled Congress high command is 
exploring several moves ) cabinet reshuffle, populist 
budget, changing alliance partners, promotion of Rahul Gandhi 
- to recover from its trouncing by the Bharatiya Janata Party 
in recent state assembly elections.  Public bullying by the 
Left parties over the US-India civil nuclear agreement has 
also weakened the party.  The appointment of cabinet 
ministers from Delhi to lead state party units further 
aggravates a historical failing of the Congress Party ) 
concentration of power in the hands of a few in Delhi and 
failure to develop strong leaders in the states.  Most 
observers believe that tinkering such as organizational 
changes and cabinet reshuffles will not be sufficient to 
reinvigorate the party so it can be competitive in the coming 
state and national elections.  What is needed are bold 
initiatives which the party does not appear to have the 
courage or ideas or strength of leadership to propose.  End 
Summary. 
 
Congress Party Reshuffle in Key States 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the first of a series of moves expected in the 
coming weeks, the Indian National Congress (INC) announced on 
February 13 changes in state party unit leaderships in three 
key states, sending out central cabinet ministers to take 
charge of these states.  Water resources Minister Saifuddin 
Soz was given charge of the Jammu and Kashmir unit. 
Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary Affairs 
Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi was appointed president of the 
West Bengal unit of the party.  Minister for Personnel Suresh 
Pachauri was named head of the Madhya Pradesh state party. 
Two of the three states ) Jammu and Kashmir and Madhya 
Pradesh ) are due for state assembly elections this year. 
In West Bengal, the INC may be sensing a vulnerable Communist 
Party of India ) Marxist (CPI-M) government, which has been 
damaged by its involvement in the Nandigram violence (refs 
A-F) when CPI-M cadres killed, raped, assaulted and forcibly 
evicted villagers resisting displacement to make way for an 
investment project. 
 
Jammu and Kashmir: Mending Fences 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Water Resources Minister Saifuddin Soz replaces 
Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed, who was forced to resign from his 
post in January after allegations of bribery and corruption 
were levied against him.  A fellow legislator accused Sayeed 
of demanding and accepting $1000 for granting permission to 
open a private elementary school in the state.  Jammu and 
Kashmir state assembly elections are due in September-October 
of this year.  The state is divided into three vote banks: 
Jammu, predominantly Hindu and a Congress stronghold; the 
Kashmir valley, predominantly Muslim; and Ladakh, 
predominantly Buddhist.  The INC hopes that Soz, who is from 
the Kashmir valley, will balance Congress Chief Minister 
Ghulam Nabi Azad, who is from the Jammu area and seen in the 
valley as an outsider.  In making this move, the INC is 
mending fences with its coalition partner, Mufti Mohammad 
Sayeed,s People,s Democratic Party (PDP) after Chief 
Minister Azad was overruled in his attempt to drop PDP in 
favor of the National Conference.  A strong Congress 
performance in the Kashmir valley may have some spill-over 
benefits for the party in terms of Muslim votes in other 
states.  (Note: Saifuddin Soz is a close Embassy contact; he 
is a member of the Left-UPA panel that is considering Left 
 
NEW DELHI 00000506  002 OF 003 
 
 
parties, objections to the US-India civil nuclear 
agreement.) 
 
West Bengal: A Confrontational Approach 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary 
Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi takes over from Pradip 
Bhattacharya, who had been keeping the seat warm after Pranab 
Mukherjee quit the post on taking over the External Affairs 
Ministry in 2006.  The move is seen as a signal that the INC 
is getting ready to battle with its Communist Party of India 
) Marxist (CPI-M) allies in the coming state panchayat and 
national elections.  While Pranab Mukherjee was perceived to 
have a cozy relationship with the CPI-M, Dasmunsi is more 
adversarial and has severely criticized the CPI-M for the 
Nandigram violence.  Apparently, the Dasmunsi/CPI-M tussle 
goes back more than 40 years when Dasmunsi faced off with 
West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya ) and won 
-- in the Calcutta University student union elections. 
Dasmunsi is also considered better placed to forge an 
alliance with Mamta Bennerjee and the Trinamool Congress 
Party, which is likely to pick up support from those 
disenchanted with CPI-M rule in the state. 
 
Madhya Pradesh: A Compromise Choice 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In Madhya Pradesh, Minister of Personnel Suresh 
Pachauri will replace former Deputy Chief Minister Subhash 
Yadav.  With state elections due in October-November, Madhya 
Pradesh is considered the INC,s best bet to oust a Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP)-held government and make up for the string 
of humbling INC state house losses during 2007.  In addition 
to being an INC-BJP battleground, the state is also an arena 
for power struggles between some of the INC,s most prominent 
leaders in Delhi.  Human Resource Development Minister Arjun 
Singh and Commerce and Industries Minister Kamal Nath are 
high profile cabinet members from Madhya Pradesh.  Former 
Chief Minister Digvijay Singh is a trusted member of Sonia 
Gandhi,s inner circle, and currently leading a high-profile 
Congress delegation to Nepal.  Member of Parliament in the 
Lok Sabha Jyotiraditya Scindia is also a rising star in the 
party and is rumored to be feared as a threat by Rahul Gandhi 
himself.   In the run-up to the state and national elections 
in Madhya Pradesh, the last thing the INC needs is 
in-fighting to break out among the different camps and 
personalities from the state.  Pachauri was selected because 
he is considered neutral among the state,s power players. 
To make Pachauri,s decision more palatable to Arjun Singh, 
the latter's son was named chairman of the state unit,s 
campaign committee, which will give the father-son duo a 
strong hand in the selection of party candidates in the state 
assembly elections. 
 
Comment: A Battered and Bruised Congress Party 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The organizational changes announced February 13 
were not unexpected.  Congress today is a seriously weakened 
party after a series of setbacks in state polls during 2007, 
and especially its thumping loss to Narendra Modi in Gujarat 
(ref G).  Public bullying by the Left parties over the 
US-India civil nuclear agreement has fueled perceptions of a 
feeble and dithering party with no back-bone, intent of 
hanging on to power even at the cost of compromising on its 
principles.  Most observers agree that Congress would fare 
poorly if national elections were held today.  In search of a 
make-over, the party has been exploring many steps to recover 
and remain competitive in important state and parliamentary 
elections in the coming months: organizational changes in 
that state party units such as the ones on February 13; a 
cabinet reshuffle, which has been rumored for months but is 
now appearing imminent; a populist budget, due on February 
 
NEW DELHI 00000506  003 OF 003 
 
 
29; a shifting of alliances with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister 
Mayawati,s Bahujan Samaj Party out and Mulayum Singh 
Yadav,s Samawadi Party and Mamta Banerjee,s Trinamool 
Congress Party in; and changes in the party organization in 
Delhi with promotion of Rahul Gandhi to working president. 
It is not clear whether this nickel and dime approach will 
work.  What will remain missing are the bold and visionary 
initiatives and ideas and courageous leadership that the 
Congress Party needs to refurbish its image. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The appointment of cabinet ministers from Delhi to 
lead state party units further concentrates power in the 
hands of a few in Delhi.  The Congress leadership apparently 
does not realize that one of the party,s historical failings 
has been its centralization of power.  Under Indira Gandhi, 
Rajiv Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, decision-making has been 
closely held, with the party leader consulting only a small 
coterie of advisors in Delhi.  This led to the failure of the 
party to develop strong leaders in the states and to the 
resulting growth of regional parties.  The inability of the 
current Congress leadership to even identify such failings 
let alone fix them accounts for the difficult situation the 
party finds itself in ahead of the national elections due 
within 14 months.  As the Congress remains tone deaf and 
desperate, the BJP is increasingly in step with public 
sentiment.  End Comment. 
WHITE