VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #0384/01 0371321
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 061321Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4579

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000384 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR S/ES-O/CMS, AF/E, AF/EX, CA/OCS/ACS, DS/IP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ASEC AMGT CASC PGOV EAID ECON PHUM PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA - FEBRUARY 6 SITREP 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 379, B. NAIROBI 378, C. NAIROBI 370, D. NAIROBI 367 
 
SENSITIVE-BUT-UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE USG CHANNELS. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: As noted in ref C, the Kofi 
Annan-lead negotiations entered their most critical and difficult 
phase today as the parties began talks on power-sharing. The parties 
begin these discussions far apart and continued interference by 
hardliners from each camp threaten to keep them that way.  We sent 
letters alerting some of these hardliners that their visa 
eligibility was subject to review in accordance with recent 
statements by A/S Frazer and the Ambassador (ref B). 
 
Kibaki's level of personal involvement in these negotiations and 
surrounding events seems to be improving (whereas Odinga's has 
always been high). Kibaki met this morning, February 6, with the PNU 
negotiation team, including its newest member, Foreign Minister 
Wetangula.  Kibaki then met with his entire cabinet, in preparation 
for the two day IGAD ministerial meeting on February 7-8.  We will 
report whether a summit agenda and schedule are agreed to at this 
meeting.  While unrelated to IGAD, there will be an actual summit in 
Nairobi this Friday, February 9, when the East African Community 
Presidents assemble to meet to discuss Kenya's crisis with Kibaki. 
Not surprisingly, Odinga and ODM leadership were extremely critical 
of these meetings as being distracting and provocative ("an effort 
to legitimize Kibaki's stolen presidency," is an accusation we heard 
from them more than once).  Odinga, however, did call off a mass 
protest he earlier threatened, at Kofi Annan's request. Annan also 
called on Kibaki not to hold parallel peace seeking missions with 
other entities while the talks are ongoing. 
 
In other news, a five person investigation team sent by the UN High 
Commissioner on Human Rights arrives in Nairobi tonight and will 
meet with us this week to exchange information and coordinate 
efforts.  The UNHCHR mission will investigate post-election violence 
and human rights matters only, and not delve into election rigging 
allegations (ref D).  One item on their agenda will be allegations 
of political assassination surrounding the back-to-back murders of 
newly elected ODM MPs Melitus Were and David Too. On February 5, 
Odinga publicly called for the GOK to act on our repeated offers of 
FBI assistance in investigating their deaths.  The GOK has yet to 
respond to our offer. 
 
We also expect a nationwide election date for all of Kenya's mayoral 
seats to be announced before the end of the week.  Mayoral 
candidates are selected from among the local council winners in the 
December 27 national elections.  The local council winners also form 
the mayoral race electorate, but only vote locally.  In Nairobi, for 
instance, there are 51 votes at stake and ODM hopes to win by 
running just one candidate from among its 35 to prevail against 
whoever runs from among PNU's 26 seats.  Finally, the GOK has 
announced the creation of 10 special courts to hear the cases of 38 
contested MP seats, including those of cabinet ministers George 
Saitoti (Internal Security) and Moses Wetangula (Foreign Affairs) 
and ODM's Raila Odinga and Charity Ngilu. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SECURITY SITUATION: No major reports of violence were 
received over the past few days for all parts of Kenya.  While fewer 
reports of eviction threats and attacks by rival tribes have been 
received, these activities continue throughout Kenya, and in 
particular the Rift Valley and Nyanza Provinces.  RSO continues to 
investigate a myriad of security-related rumors and has been further 
assessing the security forces' use of force, morale, transfers, 
capabilities, tribal clash casualties, and security implications 
relative to same (see ref A). To date, no reports of casualties or 
attacks on Mission facilities, U.S. personnel, or private American 
Citizens have been received. 
 
Post is also monitoring the developments of the Kofi Annan-led 
negotiations between the Party of National Unity (PNU) and Orange 
Democratic Movement (ODM).  This four phase process has already 
amicably concluded Phase I (Addressing Violence) and Phase II 
(Addressing Humanitarian Issues).  Post is closely monitoring Phase 
III, Addressing Power Sharing, with particular vigilance for any 
inflammatory rhetoric by either side that could incite additional 
violence.  Should Phase III be agreed upon by Wednesday, 13 February 
2008, Phase IV, Addressing Underlying Societal Issues, will begin. 
Another barometer being monitored is the invitation by President 
Kibaki to members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development 
(IGAD) to run parallel negotiations and the reaction of this 
proposal by ODM. 
 
Reports of illegal roadblocks by gangs of youth and smaller 
confrontations with police upon assembly were also received.  The 
police continue to appear to be in a better position to handle the 
current security situations and RSO continues to monitor their 
capability in each instance reported. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) U.S. MISSION POSTURE: There are no/no USDH personnel in 
the authorized departure areas of Western, Nyanza and Rift Valley 
provinces, which include the cities of Kisumu and Kericho.  Core EAC 
met to review security situation there and determine need for 
presence of MRU and CDC emergency personnel.  Kisumu has been calm 
and LES staff have been commuting to work regularly since Monday. 
RSO reports that police in Kisumu have not been reinforced, and 
their FSNI in Kisumu reported that tension there remains "palpable". 
 CDC and MRU discussed minimum emergency personnel staffing and 
timing requirements.  Decision was taken to not authorize any USDH 
travel to Kisumu and Kericho until another assessment meeting is 
held on Monday 11 February.  Similar criteria will apply to a 
proposal by OFDA for USDH to travel to Rift Valley to assess IDP 
situation.  U.S. Peace Corps reports that their 58 (fifty-eight) 
volunteers remaining in country have all been successfully brought 
to Nairobi for a Close-of-Service workshop.  The 58 PCVs will depart 
Kenya this Friday 8 February, and the program will be temporarily 
suspended.  PC Staff will remain in Nairobi to oversee 
administrative activity required to suspend deployment of PCVs.  In 
Nairobi, USG offices at the Gigiri Chancery compound and CDC/KEMRI 
compound are operating normally.  Int'l School of Kenya (ISK) and 
Rosslyn Academy (RA) are open and buses are running without 
disruption.  Power, water, and communications are fully operational. 
 In-country travel policy is in effect and all personnel and family 
members are accounted for. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) HUMANITARIAN SITUATION:  As of February 5, the Kenya Red 
Cross Society increased the estimate of internally displaced persons 
(IDPs) in Kenya to more than 325,775 people.  The revised figure 
includes approximately 24,000 newly-displaced persons since January 
31, and reflects continued population movements resulting from 
violence in both previously and newly-affected areas of western 
Kenya in late January.  However, the figure does not represent the 
significant but unconfirmed number of displaced persons currently 
sheltering with extended families and friends in host communities. 
While the Government of Kenya and international relief agencies in 
Nairobi are discussing the need to identify, track, and support the 
large displaced population staying with host families, several 
challenges exist, and no concrete mechanism is yet in place. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) U.S. CITIZENS:  Consular wardens in the Rift Valley, 
Nyanza and Western provinces are reporting calm and that life is 
getting back to normal.  The Kisumu warden reports that travel in, 
out and around the city is opening up and flowing and that a 
majority of the schools are open.  The Nakuru warden also reports 
quiet and normal conditions but wondered how the upcoming burial of 
the murdered MP from Kericho would affect the precarious calm.  The 
Embassy hosted a Town Hall meeting for private Amcits on Feb 5.  The 
three-hour meeting was very well attended (about 325 persons).  The 
Ambassador spoke for about forty-five minutes and took forty-five 
minutes of questions.  The ADCM, RSO and ACG talked briefly and then 
opened it up for questions.  Most of the questions related to 
security and hypothetical scenarios about evacuation.  All private 
Amcits were encouraged to stay in contact with the Embassy and to 
stay informed about ongoing events.  The Embassy participants 
observed a noticeable reduction in the anxiety level of the private 
Amcits, most of whom attended the Embassy's Town Hall meeting two 
weeks ago.  Post believes that the frequent Town Hall meetings are 
reducing stress levels among private Amcits because accurate 
information is being disseminated, Amcits can ask the questions that 
are relevant to them, and it allows a common venue for the widely 
dispersed Amcit community to come together and network about current 
events.  Post is also consolidating its Travel Alerts into a revised 
Travel Warning.  Consular Affairs is currently clearing the language 
and the revised Travel Warning should be issued shortly. 
Rannenberger