VZCZCXRO3341
PP RUEHAST RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHMRE RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #0348/01 0391507
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081507Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6497
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNOSC/OSCE POST COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000348 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL RS
SUBJECT: REACTION TO ODIHR/OSCE-PA DECISION ON ELECTION 
OBSERVERS 
 
REF: A. MOSCOW 322 
     ¶B. MOSCOW 303 
     ¶C. 07 MOSCOW 5682 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) As expected, the reaction to the decisions by ODIHR 
and the Parliamentary Assembly of OSCE not to observe the 
March 2 presidential elections has been loud and swift. 
Political analysts and members of the Duma from both United 
Russia and the Communist Party decried the decision not to 
send observer missions, despite what they viewed as the CEC's 
willingness to compromise on the arrival date of the 
delegation, or spun ODIHR's decision as affirmation that 
Russia did not need monitoring.  While several opposition and 
NGO leaders welcomed ODIHR's principled stand, the GOR's 
charge of OSCE double standards resonated among some.  While 
the dispute will fade from public view quickly, the GOR will 
intensify its efforts at OSCE "reform."  End summary. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
ANALYSTS COMMENT ON ODIHR/OSCE-PA DECISIONS 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The decisions February 7 by ODIHR and the 
Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE (OSCE-PA) not to send 
observers to the March 2 presidential elections opened the 
flood gates to predictable cries of outrage by many Russian 
political analysts.  The pro-Kremlin Gleb Pavlovskiy of the 
Effective Politics Foundation said the decision aims to 
"weaken the new president from the very beginning of his term 
of office."  Pavlovskiy accused the staff of OSCE and 
"certain forces related to the State Department" of sending 
signals that resulted in the decisions not to observe the 
upcoming elections.  Aleksey Makarkin of the Center for 
Political Technologies said that if Russia had agreed to the 
terms requested by ODIHR then it would be "an admission of 
deficient democracy."  He added that Russia had come out 
"with minimal damage to its image," and concluded that "the 
fact that it was ODIHR which refused to come and that Russia 
was ready to meet it halfway, is a plus to Russian 
leadership." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
DUMA LEADERS AND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES HAVE THEIR SAY 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶3. (U) Comments by Konstantin Kosachev, Chairman of the Duma 
International Affairs Committee and member of the United 
Russia faction, were measured.  He argued that the main 
function of OSCE monitors is to observe parliamentary 
elections or presidential elections if the campaign is 
"complicated and the results are unpredictable."  He noted 
that in Russia, "elections were run in accordance with 
electoral legislation."  Ivan Melnikov, Duma Deputy Speaker 
and Deputy Chairman of the Communist Party said the OSCE's 
refusal to send monitors was "an effort to pressure Russia, 
just as Russia is being pressured on international problems 
such as Kosovo."  "The elections, no matter how they proceed, 
will not be detrimental to Russia's image," Melnikov said. 
In the December Duma elections, the Communist Party fielded 
observers throughout the country and condemned the conduct of 
the elections, alleging thousands of violations.  Following 
the election, Melnikov and Communist Party Leader and now 
presidential candidate Gennadiy Zyuganov discussed their 
concerns with the head of OSCE-PA (Ref C). 
 
¶4. (U) Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, leader of the Liberal 
Democratic Party and presidential candidate, said the 
decisions not to observe the elections will have no effect on 
the results.  "The elections will take place and the 
president will be announced," he said.  Speaking about 
international observers in general, Zhirinovskiy said that as 
many observers who want to come should, but that this 
standard should apply to all countries, "not just Russia." 
Andrey Bogdanov, the Democratic Party's candidate for 
president, said it is ODIHR's and OSCE-PA's "right to send or 
not send observers."  He opted to place their decision not to 
observe in the best possible light, arguing that their 
decision meant "our ways are democratic and there is 
democracy in our country." 
 
----------------------------------------- 
POLITICAL OPPOSITION, GOLOS, OTHERS REACT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who was denied 
 
MOSCOW 00000348  002 OF 002 
 
 
registration to run for president, welcomed ODIHR's refusal 
to send observers as an expression of its principles.  Liliya 
Shibanova, the head of the election monitoring NGO GOLOS, 
blamed the CEC for making the international community 
question the legitimacy of the presidential elections. 
Referring to ODIHR's refusal to observe the December Duma 
elections, Shibanova said:  "Refusing to attend Russian 
elections for the second time is a very serious move for the 
international community."  Viktor Sheynis, one of the authors 
of Russia's law on elections said the damage caused by 
ODIHR's and OSCE-PA's refusal to participate is "moral" and 
will be "implanted in world public opinion."  Dmitriy Orlov 
of the Agency for Political Economic Communications said that 
having a united front of organizations question the 
legitimacy of the presidential elections is "absolutely not 
wanted."  He called OSCE an "influential organization" and 
said "its non-participation is bad news for the Russian 
political system."  That being said, he accused ODIHR of 
taking a non-constructive position from the beginning and 
said Russia should not be treated as a politically 
underdeveloped country. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) With the election outcome a foregone conclusion, and 
interest in its conduct among Russians slight, this 
disagreement with ODIHR, and its failure to observe elections 
here for the second time in a row will fade from public view 
quickly.  However, we can expect ODIHR's decision to 
reinvigorate GOR calls for OSCE reform, particularly with 
respect to election monitoring standards, with GOR statements 
focused on the "overwhelming majority" of OSCE member-states 
that allegedly had fewer monitors and a similarly truncated 
period as offered by Russia. 
BURNS