VZCZCXRO3439
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0091/01 0391635
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081635Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6889
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1823
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - February 08, 2008 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy 
Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- Opposition Communist Party Resumes Activities (para. 2) 
- BKGB Questions Belarusian Christian Democrat (para. 3) 
- Opposition to Campaign for Youth Activist Release (para. 4) 
- Opposition Leaders Banned from Traveling Abroad (para. 5) 
- Protestants Protest Pressure from Authorities (para. 6) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Foreign Debt Continues to Rise (para. 7) 
- Ministry Plans to Reduce Profitless Companies (para. 8) 
 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
- GOB Plans Five Billion kWh in Electricity Imports (para. 9) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 10) 
----------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  Opposition Communist Party Resumes Activities 
 
Belarusian Party of Communists (BPC) spokesperson Sergey Voznyak 
informed the media February 4 that the party resumed its activities 
after a six-month suspension.  The Ministry of Justice (MOJ) warned 
the BPC over alleged low membership and its participation in the 
Union of Left Parties conference abroad prior to suspension.  The 
BPC was also facing liquidation, but the Supreme Court dismissed the 
MOJ case on January 31.  The BPC Central Committee met February 3 
and adopted a budget and a plan of activities for first half of 
¶2008. 
 
¶3.  BKGB Questions Belarusian Christian Democrat 
 
BKGB officers questioned Oleg Leshchinskiy, Mozyr-based coordinator 
of the unregistered Belarusian Christian Democracy (BCD) party, 
February 1.  The officers warned Leshchinskiy for acting on behalf 
of an unregistered organization and threatened him with 
"complications at work."  They also claimed that the BCD would never 
be registered while led by prominent opposition leaders Aleksey 
Shein and Pavel Severinets. 
 
¶4.  Opposition to Campaign for Youth Activist Release 
 
Opposition forces held an organizational meeting February 4 to set 
up a committee to campaign for the release of youth activist Andrey 
Kim.  Kim was scheduled to be released from jail February 1 after a 
10-day sentence for participation in the unsanctioned January 21 
entrepreneurs' demonstration.  However, authorities filed additional 
charges of using threats of violence against a police officer and 
have kept him in prison.  The activist now faces up to six years in 
prison if convicted of the new charges, which supporters call 
"politically motivated."  The committee will keep the local and 
international community informed both about Kim's case and about 
persecution of other activists. 
 
¶5.  Opposition Leaders Banned From Traveling Abroad 
 
Malady Front (MF) activists Dmitriy Dashkevich, Ivan Shilo and 
Anastasiya Polozhanka have been banned from traveling abroad. 
Dashkevich was en route to a university in Vilnius February 2 when 
border guards removed him from the bus he was aboard.  Shilo and 
Polozhanka were turned away at the border the same day.  United 
Civic Party Chair Anatoliy Lebedko, who had been previously notified 
that he was not permitted to leave Belarus, was stopped at the 
border February 4 while traveling to Vilnius to meet with Lithuanian 
MPs.  Lebedko's passport was stamped "exit forbidden" in poor 
Belarusian. 
 
¶6.  Protestants Protest Pressure from Authorities 
 
The Protestant New Life Church (NLC) community began a week of fast 
and prayers February 4 over what they call official "pressure" from 
the authorities.  NLC lawyer Sergey Lukanin explained that 
prosecutors had been threatening NLC pastor Vyacheslav Goncharenko 
with criminal prosecution and imprisonment after Goncharenko 
received a second warning February 5 for denying officials and fire 
inspectors access to the church building.  Lukanin said the 
 
MINSK 00000091  002 OF 002 
 
 
community will continue to deny officials access to its property 
until the Supreme Economic Court settles the dispute over the forced 
sale of NLC property. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶7.  Foreign Debt Continues to Rise 
 
Belarus' Finance Ministry reported February 1 that the country's 
sovereign foreign debt as of January 1 was USD 2.337 billion, 
comprising 86.7 percent of total foreign debt.  The foreign debt 
limit for 2008 was set at USD 4 billion.  The country's internal 
debt increased by 1.2 percent of GDP in 2007.  Under the law, the 
annual increase in the internal debt cannot be more than 3 percent 
of GDP.  Belarus' national budget surplus in 2007 was 2.7 percent of 
the GDP. 
 
¶8.  Ministry Plans to Reduce Profitless Companies 
 
The Ministry of Industry announced plans February 7 to reduce the 
number of unprofitable enterprises to zero by the end of 2008. 
According to the ministry, currently about 14 percent of the 
industrial sector's enterprises, mainly small plants, subsidiary 
plants and food services enterprises, operated at a loss as of 
January 1, 2008.   In order to reduce the number of unprofitable 
enterprises, the ministry plans to increase efficiency, reorganize 
enterprises, and merge unprofitable small enterprises into 
industrial associations.  Industry Minister Anatol Rusetskiy stated 
that plans will begin with the "optimization" of the machine-tool 
industry and expand from there. 
 
------------------- 
International Trade 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  GOB Plans Five Billion kWh in Electricity Imports 
 
Vladimir Karduba, chief engineer with the Belarusian State Energy 
Concern Belenergo, reported February 7 that Belarus plans to import 
five billion kWh of electricity this year, noting that talks with 
potential suppliers in Ukraine and Russia are still in progress. 
According to Karduba, Belarus can generate a sufficient amount of 
electricity domestically, but the company plans to import more 
energy because the high cost of equipment maintenance makes domestic 
production more expensive than imports.  According to the Ministry 
of Energy, the Belarusian power generation sector has a total 
capacity of more than 7,800 MWt, and consists of 25 power plants 
producing about 30 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. 
 
---------------------- 
¶10.  Quote of the Week 
---------------------- 
 
Lidiya Yermoshina, Chair of the Central Elections Committee, on why 
rigged elections are inconceivable in Belarus: 
 
"People here trust the figures presented by the Central Electoral 
Committee.  Elections here cannot be falsified.  If elections here 
were ever rigged, hundreds would take to the streets when they saw 
their votes did not correspond to the official totals." 
 
Stewart