VZCZCXRO1204
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #0521/01 0601216
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291216Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9943
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000521 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PINR RP
 
SUBJECT: ANTI-ARROYO PROTESTS STILL LACK CRITICAL MASS 
 
REF: A. MANILA 517 (MANILA BRACES FOR ANOTHER 
 
      DEMONSTRATION) 
      ¶B. MANILA 483 (LIMITED PROTESTS MARK ANNIVERSARY) 
¶C. MANILA 404 (BRIBERY ALLEGATIONS ROIL 
      ADMINISTRATION) 
 ¶D. MANILA 316 (HOUSE SPEAKER OUSTED) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The presence of high-profile critics of the 
Arroyo Administration, including former Presidents Corazon Aquino 
and Joseph Estrada, at a February 29 inter-faith rally failed for 
the second time this week to create the critical mass of outrage and 
large-scale support that would result in the resignation of 
President Arroyo.  With the leadership of senior ranks of the Armed 
Forces and the Philippine National Police resolute in their 
opposition to extra-constitutional action and with the church 
hierarchy ambivalent about once again putting its weight behind 
popular revolt, rally organizers - including leftist and student 
activists and some business elites - were once again stymied in 
their hopes of bringing about another popular uprising of the kind 
that brought down Presidents Marcos and Estrada.  Still, the 
presence of approximately 15,000 demonstrators on the street was a 
clear signal to President Arroyo that her administration's 
difficulties with charges of corruption are not over.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Thousands of demonstrators from various sectors of 
society, including civil society leaders, church officials, militant 
groups, and the political opposition gathered on February 29 for an 
"interfaith" protest against President Arroyo at the Ninoy Aquino 
Monument in Manila's main business district (ref A).  Crowd 
estimates varied widely, with organizers estimating the number at 
75,000, while the Philippine National Police put the figure at 
15,000.  In any case, the numbers were significantly lower than the 
organizers desired, and certainly not comparable to the estimated 
one million protesters that led to the removal from power of 
Presidents Marcos and Estrada.  The demonstration was mostly 
peaceful as police and military units maintained public order, and 
no security units broke ranks and joined the protesters. 
Previously, mass rallies in 1986 and 2001 succeeded in large part 
because elements of the security forces turned against the 
government. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) During the three-hour demonstration, Catholic, Protestant, 
and Muslim religious leaders sat at the heart of the demonstration, 
leading prayer services for the crowd.  In an unlikely pairing, 
former President Corazon Aquino, clad in her signature yellow 
clothing, and pardoned former President Joseph Estrada sat next to 
each other, united only in their desire for President Arroyo to step 
down.  Briefly addressing the crowd, Aquino repeated her call for 
President Arroyo to resign, saying "I thought my duties had ended 
but the circumstances require me to rise up."  For his part, Estrada 
thanked the crowd for their "willingness to stand up for truth, 
justice, and change."  Estrada quipped, "I was an understaying 
President, but President Arroyo has overstayed her time," he noted. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) While notable former congressmen and retired military and 
police generals joined the rally, few sitting Congressmen or 
Senators appeared on the streets with the demonstrators - vocal 
opposition Senator Panfilo Lacson the notable exception.  In a press 
conference prior to the event, Senate President Manny Villar said it 
was premature to call for the President's resignation.  "It would be 
too hard for us Senators to actively call for the President's 
resignation because the Administration might say that we have 
prematurely concluded the ZTE investigation," Villar said (ref C). 
President Arroyo conducted business as usual, attending a morning 
mass, the opening of an aquarium in Manila, and a meeting with 
Philippine National Police Chief Avelino Razon at police 
headquarters. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Today's demonstration appeared to be somewhat larger than 
Monday's protests that marked the anniversary of the 1986 people 
power movement, but lacked anywhere near the magnitude and fervor of 
the events that brought down Ferdinand Marcos.  President Arroyo 
remains resolute in her intention to serve out her presidential term 
to 2010, but the presence of thousands of demonstrators on the 
street was a clear signal that her administration's difficulties 
with charges of corruption are not over, with her detractors and 
critics determined to press for greater transparency on the charges 
they have leveled against her administration. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
MANILA 00000521  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov 
 
KENNEY