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OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #0483/01 0560946
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 250946Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9891
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 000483 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PINR RP
 
SUBJECT: LIMITED PROTESTS AGAINST PRESIDENT MARK PEOPLE POWER 
ANNIVERSARY 
 
REF: A. MANILA 404 
 
 ¶B. MANILA 316 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: On the 22nd anniversary of the 1986 EDSA People 
Power Revolution that ousted former President Ferdinand Marcos, 
thousands of Filipinos turned out to demonstrate, some calling for 
President Arroyo to step down over corruption charges related to a 
government contract, others showing their support for the 
beleaguered president.  The political landscape was also divided, 
with opposition Senate President Manuel Villar asserting that the 
President's actions on a disputed infrastructure contract 
constituted an impeachable offense, while pro-administration 
Senators, led by influential Juan Enrile, continued to defend her. 
The Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National 
Police remained solidly behind President Arroyo, as the Catholic 
Church hierarchy displayed an ambivalent posture, calling for 
soul-searching on the country's endemic corruption but avoiding a 
call for public intervention in the political process.  While 
citizens, politicians, and public figures openly discussed her fate, 
President Arroyo brushed aside calls for her resignation and visited 
typhoon-ravaged areas of the country, projecting a business as usual 
demeanor.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NATIONWIDE RALLIES MARK PEOPLE POWER ANNIVERSARY 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Generally peaceful rallies - with some scuffles between 
police and protesters - took place nationwide February 25 to mark 
the 22nd anniversary of the People Power Revolution to call for the 
resignation of President Gloria Arroyo.  Bayan, an umbrella 
organization for leftist groups, organized anti-Arroyo 
demonstrations in at least 15 cities around the country, including 
Baguio in Northern Luzon, Legazpi in the Visayas, and Cagayan de Oro 
in Mindanao.  In Manila, the leftist organization led approximately 
2,000 protesters to the historic Mendiola Bridge, just outside 
Malacanang Palace, where 13 protesting farmers were killed by 
security forces in 1987, and called for President Arroyo to step 
down.  Citizens' Congress, a pro-administration group, concurrently 
staged a rally in Intramuros, Manila, calling for greater unity and 
a stop to political bickering.  None of the demonstrations were even 
a fraction of the size of the massive People Power protests that 
brought down Presidents Marcos and Estrada. 
 
SECURITY FORCES LOYAL TO PRESIDENT 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Amid rumors that elements of the military would withdraw 
support from Arroyo, Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief 
Hermogenes Esperon, along with the major service commanders of the 
Philippine Army, Navy and Air Force, stressed the military's loyalty 
to the Constitution and the President and assured publicly that no 
military personnel would take part in anti-government rallies.  He 
dismissed the rumors as disinformation campaigns aimed at creating a 
wedge in the military.  Likewise, Philippine National Police (PNP) 
Director General Avelino Razon, Jr. said plainly that "the PNP will 
not get ourselves involved in politics, much less political 
intervention."  Razon asserted that the police remain "united and 
loyal behind the Constitution and the duly constituted authorities." 
 Esperon and Razon led a "unity march" from the People Power 
monument to a well-known golf club. 
 
TAKING SECURITY PRECAUTIONS 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Though both the PNP and AFP expected the demonstrations to 
be peaceful, the PNP deployed approximately 1,200 PNP personnel 
around the Metro Manila area, including Malacanang Palace, while 
over 5,000 PNP personnel from nearby Central Luzon and Southern 
Tagalog regions were placed on standby.  The AFP went on "red 
alert," with 3,000 troops from the National Capital Region Command 
augmented by an "anti-coup" battalion composed of four companies of 
infantry from different divisions.  In addition, dozens of AFP 
armored assets were deployed to assist the PNP if called upon or if 
there were uniformed AFP members joining the rallies. 
 
FORMER PRESIDENT RAMOS WARNS ABOUT "CORRUPT OFFICIALS" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Speaking in an EDSA anniversary kick-off ceremony attended 
by President Arroyo on February 22, respected former President Fidel 
Ramos, an Arroyo ally who played a pivotal role in the overthrow of 
Marcos and is considered a weathervane of public opinion, warned 
about "corrupt officials" and stressed that "greed, corruption and 
apathy" -- sins which precipitated the first people power revolution 
in 1986 -- are back.  "History might yet call us to come together 
 
MANILA 00000483  002 OF 002 
 
 
once again to offer our lives and fortunes on the altar of our civic 
ideals."  The former President has been a pillar of support to 
President Arroyo during a series of political crises. 
 
SENATE PRESIDENT VILLAR CALLS FOR IMPEACHMENT 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Shortly after President Arroyo's admission on February 23 
that there were "irregularities" in a $329 million national 
broadband contract with Chinese firm ZTE (ref A), Senate President 
Manuel Villar argued that her signing of the contract constituted an 
impeachable offense.  Senator Aquilino Pimentel said he would urge 
the Senate to examine Arroyo's statements for possible violation of 
anti-graft laws.  President Arroyo has thus far survived three 
impeachment attempts in the House of Representatives, the last one 
in July 2007.  By law, the earliest an impeachment complaint can be 
filed against her is July 2008.  The Constitution prohibits the 
filing of more than one impeachment complaint within a one-year 
period. 
 
ON THE FRINGES: SNAP ELECTIONS, CARETAKER PRESIDENT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Independent Representative Eduardo Nonato Joson filed a 
bill calling for snap elections, believing that the option would 
prevent "anarchists and opportunists from taking advantage of the 
present crisis."  However, the proposal will likely not fly in the 
pro-administration chamber.  For his part, former President Estrada 
appealed to the military to support the people's call for the 
President to resign but rejected a military takeover.  He offered to 
become "caretaker President" in the event the President's seat is 
vacated. 
 
PRESIDENT ARROYO: "I WILL LEAVE IN 2010" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Over the last few days, President Arroyo brushed aside 
calls for her resignation and visited typhoon-ravaged areas of the 
country, projecting a business-as-usual demeanor.  She reiterated 
that, in keeping with the Constitution, she would not resign but 
would step down when she finishes her term in 2010 and strive "to 
promote reforms so that I could leave a stronger country to my 
successor."  Referring to the People Power movements that brought 
down Presidents Marcos and Estrada, Arroyo said: "The world embraced 
EDSA I in 1986.  The world tolerated EDSA II.  The world will not 
forgive an EDSA III." 
 
¶9.  (SBU) On the same day, First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, who was 
seriously implicated in the ZTE scandal, left for Hong Kong for "an 
acupuncture treatment" after the Ombudsman began an investigation on 
the ZTE controversy.  Summoned to its opening hearing, the First 
Gentleman sent his lawyer to represent him.  Malacanang Palace, 
however, assured that he will testify if his medical condition 
allows it. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) President Arroyo's statement that the world would not 
forgive another popular revolt, while self-serving, carried a 
fundamental truth.  Another people power revolution would make a 
habit of changing presidents between elections, through 
constitutionally-questionable means, with negative implications for 
political and economic stability, including foreign investment that 
the Philippines needs to sustain current economic growth.  The 
Presidential elections in 2010 act as a brake on efforts to oust 
President Arroyo, since several politically powerful senators are 
candidates, and believe their chances are best served if President 
Arroyo completes her term.  Despite outrage at corruption scandals 
among segments of the political class, the general public is not 
energized. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov 
 
KENNEY