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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151758Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4280
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 3304

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MADRID 000177 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN:  ELECTION UPDATE FEBRUARY 15 
 
REF: A. MADRID 171 
     ¶B. MADRID 151 AND PREVIOUS 
 
MADRID 00000177  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Popular Party (PP) candidate Mariano Rajoy 
appears to be making a play for working class voters with 
messages on the economy (ref a), immigration, and public 
security.  Some polls suggest voter participation may be 
slipping; virtually everyone agrees low turnout hurts 
President Zapatero and the socialists (PSOE) more than the 
PP.  However, it appears most Spaniards still expect a PSOE 
victory.  In electoral terms, we still have a long way to go 
until March 9, and this race remains too close to call.  End 
summary. 
 
Immigration 
----------- 
 
¶2. (U) Rajoy has taken a page from Sarkozy's book, saying 
immigrants should be required to sign an integration contract 
in which they commit to respect the customs, laws, and 
culture of Spain; learn the language; pay taxes; and work or 
leave Spain.  In return the government would guarantee them 
equal rights to Spaniards and assistance in finding a job or 
help in returning to their countries of origin if they could 
not find work.  Parties of the left and pro-immigrant groups 
were quick to brand the proposal as extremist and 
discriminatory.  A PP official also suggested the party would 
support banning the use of the veil in schools and public 
buildings as a way of fighting discrimination against women. 
There are about 4.5 million immigrants registered in Spain 
(roughly 10 percent of the population).  The PP predicts that 
number will grow to eight million by 2025 if current trends 
continue.  Minister of Interior Rubalcaba said the PP 
proposals had a whiff of xenophobia about them.  Zapatero 
apologized to immigrant women for the PP's "discriminatory 
offenses" and in an agitated tone told a rally he would never 
remain silent in the face of right-wing opponents who were 
angry, xenophobic, macho, and homophobic. 
 
Public Security 
--------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Rajoy unveiled February 11 a package of public 
security proposals including 30,000 new police, improved 
public security infrastructure, a tougher penal code, 
streamlined criminal trial procedures, and stricter parole 
conditions.  Getting the most attention so far are his 
proposals to reduce the age at which a youth can face 
criminal charges (for serious offenses and recidivists) from 
14 to 12 years, to increase penalties for serious offenders 
aged 16 to 18, and to toughen detention conditions for 
juvenile offenders.  Rubalcaba was quick to point out that 
under the previous PP government, there were fewer police, 
less spending on public security, and a higher murder rate. 
He described Rajoy has having been the worst Minister of 
Interior in the history of Spanish democracy.  Left of center 
daily El Pais tried to undercut Rajoy's public security and 
immigration proposals by reporting they were conceived by 
Javier Fernandez Lasquetty, a close associate of former 
President Aznar (Aznar remains the man the left loves to 
hate). 
 
Polls Remain Tight 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (U) Extrapolating from relatively small nationwide 
telephone polls to the results in each of 52 congressional 
races can be misleading.  Also, Spanish pollsters generally 
do not limit themselves to "likely voters," and they process 
the raw results by weighing the responses to various 
questions about party preference, positives or negatives of 
particular candidates, etc.  With those caveats, a poll 
conducted by Metroscopia and published February 3 in the 
leftist daily El Pais showed the PSOE with 42 percent to the 
PP's 38.6 percent.  Sixty percent expected the PSOE to win 
while only 18 percent expected a PP victory.  Voter 
participation was predicted at 73-74 percent (it was 77.4 
percent in the 2004 general election).  Of those who said 
they voted for the PP last time, 77.3 percent said they would 
do so again versus 66.5 percent for the PSOE.  Ranked from 
zero to ten, Zapatero got a 5.7 approval rating to Rajoy's 
4.6.  The "would never vote for" number for the PP was 40 
percent; for the PSOE, it was 14 percent.  Respondents 
overall put themselves at 4.8 on a scale from left (zero) to 
right (ten).  Respondents put the PSOE at 4.3 on the same 
scale, but placed the PP at 7.0.  Although 38 percent of 
respondents thought the overall condition of the country was 
good, 45 percent thought the economy was bad or very bad, 41 
percent said it was going to get worse, and those polled had 
 
MADRID 00000177  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
greater confidence in the ability of the PP than the PSOE to 
reactivate the economy (43 percent to 37 percent).  The poll 
was based on 2,000 telephone interviews conducted nationwide 
between January 26-30.  The margin of error was plus or minus 
2.2 percent. 
 
¶5. (U) A "flash" poll conducted by Metroscopia and published 
by El Pais February 10 showed the PSOE with 41.7 percent to 
the PP's 38.8. Fifty five percent thought the PSOE was most 
likely to win in March while only 17 percent said the PP was 
likely to do so.  Of those who said they voted for the PP 
last time, 73.6 percent said they would do so again versus 
64.1 percent for the PSOE.  Ranked from zero to ten, Zapatero 
got a 5.5 approval rating to Rajoy's 4.4.  On Rajoy's 
immigration proposals 56 percent chose good or very good.  On 
Zapatero's 400 euro tax rebate, 69 percent chose good or very 
good.  On the Spanish economy, 50 percent said it was bad or 
very bad, and 43 percent said their personal economic 
situation was good or very good.  Zapatero got an approval 
rating of 5.5 to Rajoy's 4.4.  The slight overall improvement 
in the PP's numbers was attributed by the pollsters to the 
pessimism on the economy.  This poll was based on 600 
telephone interviews of eligible voters conducted nationwide 
February 8.  The margin of error was plus or minus 4.1 
percent. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Both of these polls suggest PP voters are more loyal 
than PSOE voters, substantiating the conventional wisdom that 
low turnout favors the PP.  Most observers say the PSOE 
enters the danger zone around 70 percent (no one can say with 
exactitude); as turnout drops below that point, the PSOE runs 
an increasing risk of winning the polls and losing the 
election. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A poll conducted by Sigma Dos and published by right 
of center El Mundo February 11-12 showed 69.7 percent of 
respondents thought Zapatero would reopen talks with ETA in a 
second term (something Zapatero denied in a February 11 TV 
interview).  Nevertheless, Zapatero got better marks for 
being able to handle ETA than Rajoy (36.0 versus 32.9 percent 
- in a January Sigma Dos poll Rajoy got higher marks than 
Zapatero).  The poll showed 51.7 percent thought the 
country's economic situation would get worse.  79.7 percent 
thought Zapatero's 400 euro tax rebate was a measure to gain 
votes.  However, Zapatero's Minister of Economy Pedro Solbes 
still got the highest marks for public confidence in his 
ability to handle the economy (36.9 percent to 23.4 percent 
for the PP's Manuel Pizarro).  82.5 percent agreed that the 
study of Spanish throughout the country should be guaranteed 
by law (language is a controversial topic as it relates to 
the Basque Country and Catalonia).  This poll was based on 
1,000 telephone interviews of adults conducted nationwide 
February 4-7.  The margin of error was plus or minus 3.16 
percent.  We will report them for the sake of trends that 
might emerge, but these Sigma Dos polls in El Mundo merit 
caution.  Although the results do not always favor Rajoy, a 
number of the questions seem to have a partisan slant. 
 
¶8. (U) A poll conducted by IPSOS and published by 
conservative economic newspaper Expansion February 11 gave 
the PSOE 41.1 percent and the PP 39.8.   It pegged voter 
turnout at 69-70 percent.  This poll was based on 1,000 
telephone interviews of conducted nationwide February 8-10. 
No margin of error was given. 
 
¶9. (SBU) A poll conducted by the Government's Center of 
Sociological Investigations (CIS) and released February 15, 
offers some interesting, if apparently contradictory, 
results.  It showed the PSOE getting 40.2 percent of the vote 
to the PP's 38.7 percent.  Translated into congressional 
seats, this means 158-163 seats for the PSOE and 153-157 for 
the PP.  72.2 percent said they would vote and 12.9 percent 
said they would likely vote.  52.4 percent thought the PSOE 
would win while 15.3 percent said it would be the PP.  Asked 
whether they wanted a different party in power after March 9, 
39.8 percent said yes while 36.9 percent said no.  More 
voters preferred Zapatero as president than Rajoy (50.4 
percent to 26.2 percent).  This poll was based on 18,221 
personal interviews conducted between January 21 and February 
¶4.  The margin of error was plus or minus 0.74 percent.  CIS 
generally gets high marks for its methodology and rigor. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The tight polls have some people talking about the 
possibility that a party could win the largest number of 
seats in congress while not capturing the largest number of 
votes nationwide.  Although always a theoretical possibility 
under the 1978 constitution, Spain has never coped with this 
reality (Zapatero said (when?) that he would not attempt to 
govern if the PSOE found itself winning the most seats but 
 
MADRID 00000177  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
not the most votes).  Another possibility is that a party 
which barely wins the most seats cannot come up with the 
numbers in congress to form the government (this is perhaps a 
greater risk for the PP, which seems to have alienated many 
of the smaller parties and is less likely to gain support 
from the Basque and Catalan parties because of its views on 
regional autonomy).  That could open the way to the second 
place finisher putting together the necessary coalition and 
forming the government.  Finally, if nobody can cobble 
together the necessary seats after two months of wrangling, 
the King would be forced to call new elections.  No one is 
predicting any of these outcomes, but in a tight race 
anything could happen. 
 
¶11. (SBU) To add one more complication, in a press interview 
last September, Zapatero was asked if he held to his 2004 
campaign promise not to govern unless he got more votes than 
Rajoy.  He replied "yes, I am a consistent person ("si, soy 
una persona coherente")."  The next day, Rajoy made a similar 
commitment.  If one of these candidates gets one seat more 
but one vote less than the other, we might see some 
interesting verbal gymnastics ("What I meant to say was..."). 
 
¶12. (SBU) Zapatero had an embarrassing open mike accident 
following a February 13 television interview with a friendly 
journalist.  Not realizing he was on the air, Zapatero 
answered a question about the PSOE's private polls saying 
they were good, but the most convenient thing for the party 
was to maintain the tension.  He said after the weekend 
(February 16-17) he would begin to "dramatize" a little. 
Zapatero was blasted in the conservative press for suggesting 
that conflict and partisanship were good for the country.  We 
took his remarks a little differently.  PSOE private polls 
have supposedly showed them with a significant lead for some 
time, but they are trying (not very effectively) to keep this 
under wraps for fear their voters will not turn out on March 
if they think this election is in the bag. 
 
Church 
------ 
 
¶13. (U) The Zapatero government continued to complain about 
statements by the Spanish Episcopal Conference which 
implicitly criticized the PSOE.  In particular, the 
government was upset by criticism of its talks with ETA.  The 
government even complained to the Vatican about the Spanish 
bishops.  Press reports suggested the Spanish Ambassador to 
the Holy See was politely told by the Vatican Secretary of 
State that the bishops were within their rights.  Perhaps 
calculating that a stand-off with the bishops could be used 
to whip up socialist turnout, PSOE Secretary of Organization 
Jose Blanco said that after the election, "nothing would be 
the same" between church and state.  Blanco did not suggest a 
change to the 1979 accord between the government and the Holy 
See, but he did say the church should take definitive steps 
towards becoming self-financing (the Catholic Church 
presently receives revenue from the government).  Asked about 
this a few days later (at an event attended by the Papal 
Nuncio), Zapatero said he did not know who had suggested such 
a thing.  Reminded that it was his campaign manager, he said 
the possibility of renegotiating the church-state accords was 
always open but it would be done through dialogue and 
consensus.  A few days later, he seemed to back away further 
from confrontation saying the accords could be revised but 
that there must be a special relationship with the Catholic 
Church.  By Valentine's day, it looked as though Zapatero had 
decided to kiss and make up, going to dine with the Papal 
Nuncio, an event that got wide media coverage.  Rajoy used 
the controversy to accuse Zapatero of picking fights with the 
bishops in order to avoid talking about the worsening 
economy.  This issue can work at least two ways:  the image 
of a reactionary Catholic hierarchy trying to turn back the 
clock could motivate PSOE voters while the image of the 
radical left insulting the Church could make it hard for the 
working class faithful to vote PSOE.  Without reliable 
polling data, we are not yet sure which way it is cutting. 
 
Electoral Lists Official 
------------------------ 
 
¶14. (U) The voluminous final electoral lists by province and 
party have been published and can be found on Embassy 
Madrid's SIPRNET site.  Interestingly, there has been some 
buzz in Spain provoked by the keen interest here in the U.S. 
primaries.  Some commentators have noted wistfully the 
difference between the fiercely democratic and transparent 
candidate selection process in the U.S. and the top-down, 
smoke-filled room process Spanish parties use.  In addition, 
it is predicted that the law requiring gender parity may have 
 
MADRID 00000177  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
little effect in terms of increasing the number of women in 
congress since the parties have put most of the women so far 
down the lists they are unlikely to win seats. 
 
Gallardon 
--------- 
 
¶15. (U) The story of Madrid Mayor Ruiz-Gallardon's exclusion 
from the PP electoral lists never dies.  For one reason, the 
left-wing media get a chance to bring it up every time 
Gallardon and his arch-rival, Autonomous Community of Madrid 
President Esperanza Aguirre, both have to show up at a public 
event.  It also reappeared in the context of a libel suit 
filed by Gallardon months ago against a commentator for COPE, 
the Spanish Episcopal Conference radio network.  Among other 
things, the commentator suggested Gallardon was indifferent 
to the victims of the Madrid training bombings (this because 
Gallardon opposed PP suggestions of a Zapatero government 
cover-up).  The commentator recently called as defense 
witnesses Aguirre and other PP notables known to be 
unfriendly to Gallardon.  Mercifully for the PP, the trial is 
set for May. 
 
Promises 
-------- 
 
¶16. (U) Rajoy has promised an integrated law to fight climate 
change.  Among other things, he said he would plant 500 
million trees  (the PSOE had promised 45 million), reduce 
greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020, and invest 
375 million euros annually in a natural resources defense 
fund.  Rajoy was criticized last year for remarks suggesting 
he did not take global warming seriously. 
 
¶17. (U) Zapatero announced he would extend his subsidy plan 
for parents to those making less than 15,000 a year or 20,000 
euros in the case of large families.  Currently only those 
making less than 11,000 euros a year are eligible.  The plan 
pays 500 euros for each child zero to three years of age and 
300 euros for those 3 to 18.  The PSOE said this would extend 
coverage to an additional 400,000 families.  The PP meanwhile 
is promising a plan for free dental care. 
 
Debates 
------- 
 
¶18. (U) After some last minute wrangling over venues, the 
PSOE and PP appear to have agreed that the February 25 and 
March 3 Zapatero-Rajoy debates will go forward. 
AGUIRRE