VZCZCXRO5147
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0119/01 0421912
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111912Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4596
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000119 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS TO USAID/IMACNAIRN 
NSC FOR PITTMAN/LEO 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AO
SUBJECT:  ANGOLA OPTIMISTIC THAT ITS ELECTIONS WON'T MIRROR KENYA'S 
 
REF:  A. 07 LUANDA 1275; B.  LUANDA 83 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Angola is moving ahead toward September 
legislative elections.  Catch-up voter registration is slated for 
April and May.  CIPE, the inter-ministerial body carrying out the 
voter registration, will provide the National Election Commission 
(CNE) a map with proposed locations for all polling stations as well 
as detailed information on the state of the nation's infrastructure 
system and locations of the populace, before CIPE dissolves itself, 
leaving the CNE to conduct the elections.  Government ministers 
involved in the electoral process and USAID's democracy/governance 
partners are optimistic that the elections will, in fact, occur in 
September and will be free from any orchestrated violence or vote 
rigging.  The biggest variable in the election outcome is how 
citizens who perceive themselves as failing to benefit from Angola's 
economic boom will conduct themselves in the election process:  will 
they stay home; cast spoiled ballots; vote for anybody but the 
ruling MPLA; or, vote for the ruling party for old-times sake?  The 
tragic post-election events in Kenya cast a pall over the elections 
process in Angola, though observers here cite many reasons why a 
Kenya-like situation would not unfold here.  Nonetheless, the 
Embassy will engage political actors to make sure they draw the 
right lessons from Kenya:  the elections in Angola must be as 
credible and transparent as possible.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) Angola continues to proceed apace toward legislative 
elections this September.  Although a few skeptics remain among 
independent Angolan observers, the prevailing mood is that the 
elections will indeed take place on September 5 and/or 6, as 
President Dos Santos announced Dec. 27, 2007 (Reftel A)). 
Edeltrudes Costa, Vice-Minister of Territorial Administration and 
responsible for "electoral issues," briefed Ambassador Mozena on Feb 
8 that the election process remains on track.  He explained that the 
CIPE (Interministerial Commission for the Electoral Process), which 
he chairs, is entering the final phases of its engagement in the 
election process, after which it will be disbanded.  In March CIPE 
will launch a nationwide civic education campaign to inform the 
population that those who failed to register during last year's 
registration campaign and those who since then have or will turn 18 
before the September elections should register during the planned 
April-May catch-up registration period.  He said CIPE expects to add 
300,000 - 400,000 new registrants to the electoral rolls, which 
already number over 8 million.  Costa said the CIPE will culminate 
its work once it provides the National Election Commission (CNE) 
with a map designating the proposed locations of the polling 
stations (estimated by the CNE president to number nearly 10,000 - 
reftel B.)  Costa clarified that the actual conduct of the elections 
will be solely the responsibility of the CNE. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Costa recognized that the logistics of conducting the 
elections are daunting, opining that the CNE would need two days to 
carry them out.  He added that President Dos Santos, too, 
appreciates that logistical considerations will necessitate a 
two-day election period.  He said Dos Santos in his election 
announcement was more concerned about these logistical realities 
than he was about the letter of the law, which indicates that 
elections should be held in a single day.  He did not offer how this 
inconsistency could be resolved.  He noted that if the GRA were to 
try to hold the elections in a single day and then failed, the 
international community, the political opposition, and civil society 
would immediately accuse the GRA of fraud.  Since the CIPE will have 
conducted two nationwide registration campaigns, Costa added, it 
would know best the logistical challenges the CNE will confront in 
conducting the balloting.  The Vice-Minister said the CIPE will 
convey its vast knowledge of the state of Angola's infrastructure 
and the precise whereabouts of the population to the CNE, so the 
latter can use this in devising its own logistical plans for the 
elections. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Looking ahead, Costa declared that presidential elections 
will "definitely" be held in 2009.  Beyond that, he said local 
elections will be held in 68 pilot municipalities in 2010, expanding 
by 2012 to include all 163 municipalities.  Yet to be determined is 
whether elections for Angola's 554 "comuna," districts within 
municipalities, will also be held by 2012 or deferred until later. 
(Note:  immediately prior to the meeting with Costa, the ministry's 
other Vice-Minister, Luis de A. da Mota Liz, who is responsible for 
decentralization, chatted with the Ambassador and sketched the 
ministry's efforts to decentralize governance from Luanda to the 
provinces and local levels.  He expressed great appreciation for the 
work done by USAID under the Municipal Development Program, which 
has been critical to efforts to devolve governance to levels closer 
to the people.  Mota Liz, too, noted that elections at the local 
level would begin in 2010.  End Note) 
 
¶5. (SBU) Assessing the upcoming elections through a political lens, 
Costa said the greatest concern from the perspective of the ruling 
MPLA party is voter absenteeism.  The Vice-Minister's concern echoes 
 
LUANDA 00000119  002 OF 002 
 
 
that of a prominent MPLA parliamentary leader who told the 
Ambassador at a dinner gala February 1 that the MPLA knows it can 
defeat the political opposition handily ... the only issue is voter 
turnout.  He added that the MPLA is aware that many citizens are 
dissatisfied with their quality of life and believe that the 
country's explosive economic growth (in macro terms) has not 
benefited them.  The MPLA leader said his party simply does not know 
how these voters will conduct themselves on election day.  He 
thought this concern would be even more serious during the 2009 
presidential elections, when the voters' ire could be focused on a 
single individual, than during this year's legislative elections, 
when he hoped voters would be swayed to participate in the elections 
on the basis of their "abstract" support for the party itself, which 
had won the nation's independence and achieved peace. 
 
¶6. (SBU) During a separate, earlier roundtable discussion with 
USAID's Democracy and Governance implementing partners, all 
participants (IRI, NDI, IFES, Search for Common Ground, and UNDP) 
agreed that the legislative elections will take place in September, 
as announced.  The partners, some of whom have been working 
election-related issues for years in Angola at the grassroots level, 
were uniformly optimistic that the elections would be peaceful and 
free from orchestrated fraud and vote rigging, with two caveats. 
Spontaneous outbursts of frustration may arise over any logistical 
breakdowns, and local zealots attempting to commit fraud may cause 
sporadic incidents, though any such incidents would be limited and 
not affect the outcome of the elections.  The biggest concern shared 
by the partners was the CNE's ability to carry out the elections 
logistically.  IFES, the only outside body asked by the CNE to 
assist with election logistics, is working with the CNE to develop 
an efficient administrative structure that would enable the CNE to 
make decisions fast and effectively in carrying out election 
logistics.  Such a structure, the IFES representative declared, is 
critical to the CNE's success in conducting the polling. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The partners were unsure how voters would express their 
frustrations over quality of life issues.  Some detected malaise and 
apathy among voters who believe their vote would make no difference; 
others found many voters excited about having a registration card 
and the prospect of voting for the first time in their lives.  A 
third possibility evinced by some of the partners was that voters 
would go to the polls, but then cast spoiled ballots to register 
their complaint that the ballot offered no real choices. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  Democracy in Angola has champions in 
Vice-Ministers Costa and Mota Liz.  Young, bright, determined, both 
are working hard to make democracy real in Angola.  So far, they 
have an impressive record:  The voter registration process that 
Costa spearheaded was fair, transparent and credible, as even the 
opposition parties concede.  As well, it was a marvel of modern 
technology performing well in some of southern Africa's most remote 
and inaccessible locations.  Mota Liz has overcome stiff resistance 
from party stalwarts of an earlier generation in winning Dos 
Santos's public approval for decentralization of governance, 
including local elections.  The optimism of the two Vice-Ministers 
and of USAID's Democracy/Governance partners was palpable, though 
tempered by the unexpected and tragic events unfolding in Kenya in 
the wake of that country's December 2007 elections.  Although all 
interlocutors were quick to cite reasons why the Kenya experience 
would not play out in Angola (here tribal antipathy is much less, 
the people are so sick of conflict they would refuse to take to the 
streets, opposition leaders are not inclined toward violence), Kenya 
nonetheless casts a pall here.  The Embassy will work to ensure that 
Angola's political actors draw the right lessons from Kenya:  to 
make the elections as credible and transparent as possible.  End 
comment 
 
MOZENA