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RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0726
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 0946
RUEHED/AMCONSUL EDINBURGH 0857

UNCLAS LONDON 000347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD UK EINV
SUBJECT: UK BUSINESS RESERVEDLY OPTIMISTIC ON DOHA 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: UK international business figure Gary Campkin 
(PROTECT) is "reservedly optimistic" that the WTO Doha negotiations 
can be concluded this year. He says that the current global economic 
and political situation has created a climate giving impetus to 
reaching an agreement; it will be harder to do so next year. 
Campkin, who was part of the Confederation of British Industry's 
(CBI) delegation to accompany PM Brown to India and China, said he 
believes India may not push for an agreement, but would not block 
one if it got what it needed on special products. PM Brown raised 
the topic in China, but Chinese officials did not characterize it as 
a priority. CBI is concerned that services are not receiving 
sufficient attention in the negotiations. Campkin said that should 
there not be an agreement in the next several months, WTO DG Lamy 
should consider presenting his own draft. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU) Gary Campkin, head of international affairs at CBI, gave us 
a read out on February 1, 2008 of PM Brown's recent trip to China 
and India in which he was accompanied by a CBI delegation. (Septel 
will follow) Campkin believes that conditions are currently 
favorable for an agreement, but they may not remain so. He suggests 
that the global economic uncertainty can be used as a pretext for 
moving forward with the agreement. Coming to agreement on Doha would 
send a strong signal of international cooperation. In addition, he 
thinks that the current high agricultural prices create a favorable 
environment for reducing agricultural subsidies and tariffs. 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to Campkin, the Doha negotiations came up in 
discussions during the Prime Minister's trip to India and China. 
Campkin believes that India will not block the Doha round as long as 
they receive something on special products. However, he thinks that 
India is not likely to push an agreement either. The political 
climate in India is such that all government initiatives are viewed 
through the prism of poverty reduction. He says that PM Brown raised 
Doha in China as well, but Chinese officials made no specific 
comments on the negotiations and did not characterize them as a 
priority. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Campkin remains concerned that services negotiations are 
still lagging behind those for agriculture and non-agriculture 
market access (NAMA). More attention is needed by negotiators to 
push these forward. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Campkin said that the next few months would be crucial with 
draft texts on agriculture and NAMA expected and the possibility of 
a ministers meeting around Easter. He said CBI is coming to the view 
that if an agreement is not reached in the next few months, WTO DG 
Lamy should consider putting forth his own draft text. It may then 
be the time for Lamy to exercise prerogative. Campkin continued that 
if there is no agreement this year, it will become increasingly 
difficult to do so next year and beyond. Changes in administration 
in the U.S., elections in India, and changes in the European 
Commission in 2009 mean any momentum built up will slacken as new 
teams take over and assess the state of negotiations. 
 
TUTTLE