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Viewing cable 08KUALALUMPUR99, Malaysia's 2007 Trade Figures: U.S. Economic Woes Take

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08KUALALUMPUR99 2008-02-15 09:54 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Kuala Lumpur
VZCZCXRO9239
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0099/01 0460954
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150954Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0541
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000099 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EB/TPP/BTA, EAP/EP AND EAP/MTS 
DEPT PASS USTR FOR BARBARA WEISEL AND DOUGLAS BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD MY
SUBJECT: Malaysia's 2007 Trade Figures: U.S. Economic Woes Take 
Their Toll 
 
 
1. Summary. After years of strong export growth that has formed the 
backbone of Malaysia's economy, Malaysia's trade growth leveled off 
in 2007, with exports growing just 2.7% from 2006.  The 
manufacturing sector, which accounts for 75% of Malaysian exports, 
grew just 0.2%.  A surge in palm oil exports helped offset the weak 
figures for manufactured goods, though palm oil exports only account 
for 6.2% of total exports.  Malaysia still depends heavily on 
exports of electrical and electronic (E&E) products; falling demand 
for such products in most of Malaysia's major export markets, 
including the United States, was the prime culprit for the weak 
export results.  U.S.-Malaysia two way trade declined from USD 49.1 
billion in 2006 to 44.5 billion in 2007.  In announcing the 2007 
statistics Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz professed optimism for 
accelerated export growth in 2008, to be driven by strengthening 
global demand for E&E products.  She scarcely mentioned the United 
States (and made no mention of our ongoing FTA negotiations), 
emphasizing instead Malaysia's intention to strengthen its trade 
with China, India, and other fast-growing economies.  End summary. 
 
Trade is growing, but not very quickly 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. Malaysian Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz announced preliminary 2007 
trade figures at a press conference in Kuala Lumpur on February 12. 
Rafidah put a positive spin on the 2007 statistics, noting at the 
outset that Malaysia's total trade hit a record high of RM 1.11 
trillion (USD 341 billion).  However, this figure marked just a 3.7% 
increase from RM 1.07 trillion in 2006.  Malaysia's trade surplus 
shrank last year as imports grew at 4.9 % while exports grew just 
2.7 %; this was only the second time in the last decade that imports 
grew faster than exports.  The tepid export growth figure was the 
lowest since 2001 (when the number of exports actually fell), and 
was less than a third of the growth registered in 2006. 
 
3. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 75% of Malaysian 
exports, registered just 0.2% export growth in 2007.  Electrical and 
electronic (E&E) product exports, which accounted for 59% of 
Malaysia's manufactured exports, decreased by 5.2%.  This reflects 
an 18% decrease in E&E exports to the U.S., as well as decreases in 
such exports to Singapore (8.5%), Hong Kong (6.4%) and Japan (2%). 
Of Malaysia's top five destinations for E&E exports, only China 
registered an increase (29.9%), though it still accounts for less 
than 10% of such exports. 
 
4. One significant success story for Malaysian exports in 2007 was 
palm oil.  The value of palm oil exports increased by 45.5%, and now 
account for 65% of agricultural exports and 6.2 % of total exports. 
Palm oil exports registered strong growth in the three leading 
export markets: China (70.1% growth), Netherlands (31.6%) and the 
U.S. (54.4%).  Though the U.S. is Malaysia's third largest export 
market for palm oil, however, the total value of such exports was 
just RM2.6 billion (USD 800 million). 
 
Declining Trade with the United States 
-------------------------------------- 
 
5. Seeking a positive overall message on Malaysia's trade in 2007, 
Rafidah only briefly mentioned Malaysian trade with the U.S. 
Nevertheless, Malaysia's largest single trading partner could not be 
completely ignored.  Rafidah announced that exports to the U.S. 
declined 14.5% in 2007 to RM95 billion, compared to RM110 billion in 
2006.  Imports from the U.S. also fell sharply, by 9.2% to RM 54.7 
billion, from RM 60.2 billion in 2006.  Total trade with the U.S. 
declined by 12.7% to RM 149 billion, from RM 170.8 billion in 2006. 
U.S. Department of Commerce statistics released February 14 confirm 
the weakening trade relationship. According to Commerce, two-way 
trade amounted to just USD 44.5 billion in 2007, down from USD 49.1 
billion in 2006.  Malaysia now ranks as the U.S.'s 16th largest 
trading partner, down from 10th place just two years ago. 
 
6. Although the E&E sector had by far the most significant impact on 
the decrease, other sectors experiencing sharp export declines 
included wood products (down 18% to RM 2.8 billion) and textiles and 
apparel, down 8.9% to RM 2.7 billion.  E&E exports continued to 
constitute 75% of all exports to the U.S., a figure that has 
remained fairly consistent in the last decade.  This consistency 
reflects Malaysia's inability to significantly diversify its export 
base, notwithstanding its oft-publicized efforts at trade 
diversification. 
 
Seeking More Markets 
-------------------- 
 
7. Given the projected slow growth in 2008 in many of Malaysia's 
major export markets such as the U.S., Japan, and the Netherlands, 
Malaysia is looking towards booming China and India to boost its 
export performance.  Rafidah expressed optimism that export growth 
 
KUALA LUMP 00000099  002 OF 002 
 
 
will be much stronger in 2008 globally, as even weakened economies 
like the U.S. begin to improve, and she suggested that export growth 
approaching 7% was feasible.  Rafidah noted that semiconductor 
devices and integrated circuits will remain a mainstay of Malaysia's 
E&E exports in 2008, and said that forecasts that this industry will 
grow by 7.7% globally was good news for Malaysia. 
 
8. Rafidah spoke at some length regarding Malaysia's intention to 
open up additional export opportunities through additional free 
trade agreements, in particular with India, with which Malaysia held 
a first round of talks in early February.  She also encouraged 
Malaysian firms to take advantage of the FTAs with Japan and 
Pakistan.  Rafidah made no mention of the ongoing FTA talks with the 
U.S., however. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. Rafidah's characteristically upbeat performance could not 
disguise Malaysia's weak 2007 trade statistics (though the 
mainstream Malaysian press emphasized the positive parts of her 
presentation).  Malaysia's overwhelming reliance on E&E exports has 
been of great benefit to its economic development over the years, 
but a softening of global demand in the sector highlights the risk 
that come from having an undiversified export base.  Malaysia's 
consistently strong trade ties with the U.S. also had negative 
implications in 2007 given the U.S. economy's weakness.  It may only 
be a matter of time before we hear some Malaysians question the 
wisdom of Malaysia seeking an FTA with the U.S. under the current 
circumstances. 
 
KEITH