VZCZCXRO9371
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0288/01 0590550
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 280550Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0054
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000288 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER AND AF/SPG 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL CD SU
SUBJECT: GoSS Minister on Census, Elections, Darfur and Chad, and 
Governance in the South 
 
REF:  Khartoum 262 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Juba CG Christopher Datta met with Government of 
South Sudan (GoSS) Minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional 
Development Michael Makuei Lueth on February 27 to discuss Makuei's 
involvement on the NCP/SPLM Executive Committee of the CPA and on 
the state of the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA).  Both 
are in trouble according to Makuei's analysis.  END SUMMARY. 
 
"If there is no census, so be it." 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶2. (SBU) CG Datta began the meeting by asking the Minister about his 
impressions on the latest round of NCP/SPLM Executive Committee 
talks in Khartoum.  Makuei responded that the work is not going 
well.  The NCP, he said, has no interest in or will to solve the 
outstanding problems faced by the committee, and uses it strictly as 
a PR platform with no outcomes wanted or planned.  As far as the 
census goes, the GoSS, he said, is very unhappy with the forms that 
were printed because they do not contain questions of critical 
importance on religion and ethnicity.  In fact, the SPLM will insist 
on the inclusion of these questions, because without them there is 
not much point to the census, and it will not be a major blow if it 
never happens.  The reason the questions are so critical is that the 
NCP maintains that Sudan is an Arab Muslim country.  They do not 
want these questions asked because the census will show that Sudan 
is certainly NOT an Arab country, and probably not even a majority 
Muslim nation, which will undermine the NCP and show its Arabization 
program to be the sham that it has always been. 
 
Elections Important, But Referendum Vital 
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¶3. (SBU) In addition to the census being important but not critical, 
the Minister said he had severe doubts the elections in 2009 would 
actually take place.  He did not believe the NCP was interested in 
holding elections and would find an excuse to delay or cancel them 
unless some deal favorable to it could be worked out.  Again, he 
thought it preferable to hold the elections, but it would not be a 
make or break issue in the end with the GoSS.  What was a make or 
break issue, he said, was the 2011 referendum.  That, he said, could 
not be delayed or canceled under any circumstances.  (Note: Septel 
reports on SPLM initiative to draft a Referendum Bill in Sudan's 
National Assembly.  End Note.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) CG Datta asked if it would still be necessary to hold the 
referendum if a Southern SPLM candidate won the Presidency in 2009, 
assuming that the elections actually did take place.  The Minister 
answered that the 2011 referendum must still take place in any 
event, although he also said that if the SPLM won national elections 
he did not know how the South would vote in the referendum. However, 
if it did vote for separation then he would expect a Southern 
president of all Sudan to resign his post and return to the South. 
(Comment: This tracks with another GoSS official's statement to CG 
Datta (reftel) that were Kiir to become President of all of Sudan in 
2009, he would resign the post if the South voted for independence 
in 2011 and he would return South.  End Comment.) 
 
NCP to Support Another Rebel Attack in Chad 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶5. (SBU) The Minister next turned to the situation in Darfur and 
Chad.  He stated flatly that the NCP was arming the rebels in Chad 
to mount another attempt to overthrow the government in the very 
near future.  Taking proxy control of the GoC was essential to NCP 
plans to subdue the rebels in Darfur, which had to be accomplished 
soon so that the NCP could turn its full attention on Southern 
Sudan, which it had no intention of giving up in 2011.  The NCP, he 
said, understood that it could not fight on two fronts, in both 
Darfur and in the South of Sudan, at the same time.  It lacked the 
capacity.  Therefore, it was looking to finish the war in the West 
so it could turn its full attention to taking on the South. 
 
Weak Parliament Eroding the Constitution 
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¶6. (SBU) The Minister then gave a readout on his views of the 
progress of the SSLA, which on the whole is not performing well. 
Laws are discussed, but almost nothing gets passed and the 
bottleneck gets worse and worse.  Many legislators do not even show 
up to participate, often making even getting a quorum difficult, and 
there is little effort made to discipline the rank and file to make 
them do their jobs.  The result is that the Presidency is forced to 
issue laws by decree in order to move critically important 
legislation forward. This process is destructive to the division of 
powers envisioned in the constitution. 
 
"The Rock of Good Government" 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7. (SBU) Lastly, the Minister said that the GoSS needed to work 
 
KHARTOUM 00000288  002 OF 002 
 
 
harder to build a professional civil service.  Politicians come and 
go, he said (Comment:  We can only hope that he is right.  End 
Comment.), but a professional civil service is the rock of good 
government.  Without one, the bureaucracy could not function 
properly and it hardly mattered what laws the assembly passed if 
they could not be properly implemented. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
¶8. (SBU) The Minister's views on the state of the census were 
alarming, but his cynicism concerning the intentions of the NCP is 
widely shared.  This is not the first time the CG has heard it said 
here that the NCP will try to end the conflict in Darfur one way or 
another in the near future, since it knows it cannot fight a war on 
two fronts and it never intends to let the South go peacefully. 
 
FERNANDEZ