VZCZCXRO8287
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0231/01 0451516
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141516Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9970
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CENSUS: HOME-STRETCH LOOKING BETTER 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Bashir issued a February 11 presidential 
decree reiterating that Sudan's inaugural nation-wide census will be 
conducted April 15-30.  The following day's meeting of the Census 
Technical Working Group (TWG) left donors, the CBS, and the Southern 
Sudan Commission for the Census and Statistical Evaluation largely 
satisfied about the pace of preparations for the census.  However, 
delays in financial transfers remain a problem: $27.2 million 
remains to be transferred to the CBS, with $13.4 million of it 
destined for the SSCCSE.  A second problem is GOSS unhappiness with 
the questions on the census form - which they say do not reflect 
requested changes pushed for by the SPLM in November 2007. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
CENSUS STATUS: SO FAR, SO GOOD 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Donors including the EC, World Bank, Danida, and USG were 
cautiously optimistic about the national census following a February 
12 TWG meeting.  CBS staff spoke about remaining challenges to the 
conduct of the census in the North.  For example, the CBS does not 
have enough funding to conduct a training of trainers for 
enumerators, and will be forced to depend on the Center's 
supervisory staff to conduct training - a task for which they 
themselves have not been trained.  Additionally, the CBS has not yet 
been able to identify adequate storage facilities for census forms 
and equipment in the North. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The SSCCSE, in contrast, is reportedly ahead of its CBS 
counterparts on all technical aspects of the census (particularly 
its public advocacy campaign) save for completed mapping of 
enumerator areas.  Mapping in Jonglei remains incomplete as a result 
of instability in the state (the South's largest) but is 90% 
complete; the Commission believes this task will be finalized by 
mid-March.  Minster for Internal Affairs Paul Mayom told ConGen 
PolOff that the GOSS is closely monitoring the security situation in 
the South, and save for limited areas within Western Bahr El Ghazal 
state bordering South Darfur and portions of Upper Nile State which 
border Ethiopia, he does not foresee security incidents disrupting 
the census.  "Jonglei will have been fixed by then," he said. 
 
-------------------- 
EXCEPT FOR THE MONEY 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Inconsistent and insufficient financial transfers still 
hamper the census, and observers agree that this must be addressed 
immediately.  The SSCCSE reported to the TWG that it was still owed 
$4.4 million in 2007 funds from the CBS.  The newly-appointed CBS 
Chairman noted that he did not have immediate information, as the 
decision to withhold funds pre-dated his appointment, but promised 
he would move to rectify the situation upon his return to Khartoum. 
The chairman then noted that the GNU owes $22.8 million from 2008 
funding to the census effort, yet the recently passed National 
Budget Act only includes $18 million in funding.  The World Bank 
counseled donors after the TWG Session to ignore the shortfall and 
focus their advocacy efforts on the immediate release of funds to 
the CBS and its immediate transfer of funds to the SSCCSE. 
 
------------------------ 
AND PERHAPS CREDIBILITY 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The World Bank, USG, and EC remain worried by the 
Monitoring and Observation Commission (MOC) performance to date and 
are advocating for international representatives on the Commission 
to change their status from Member to Observer.  Donor views on a 
status-shift remain mixed: France, the UK, and Denmark believe it is 
too pessimistic a political signal to send in advance of the census; 
the EC is likely to unilaterally withdraw regardless of the decision 
of other donors.  (Note: See comment for suggested U.S. actions on 
this issue. End note.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) Donors remain dissatisfied with the MOC work plan for 
observation of the census.  Viewed by most donors as "lacking," some 
observers pointed out that the plan may reflect the NCP's 
unwillingness to permit an accurate population count in southern 
Sudan to avoid a potential upward shift in the number of seats 
awarded to the SPLM in the National Assembly.  Donors are planning 
to submit to the MOC the week of February 18 a work-plan for census 
observation.  The plan was formulated by an international 
consultancy and contains timelines and scopes of work for specific 
technical experts during each phase of the census (conduct, 
tabulation, and data editing and interpretation) in an attempt to 
mitigate the potential for political manipulation. 
 
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KHARTOUM 00000231  002 OF 002 
 
 
NOTICEABLY ABSENT: THE POLITICAL DIMENSION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) The TWG did not discuss the Government of Southern Sudan's 
reported objection to census forms already printed which may not 
reflect changes agreed to in November 2007.  GOSS Minister for 
Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng was not pleased following a 
February 8 meeting with UNMIS's David Gressly in which the UN 
explained the oversight.  Last-minute SPLM requests on ethnicity and 
religion did not make the final printing, leaving only one identity 
question on the short questionnaire and no reference to geographic 
origin (i.e., Northerner/Southerner).  The origin question remains 
pegged to county-level identification.  Despite this, USAID 
contractors at the TWG reported that the SPLM - at least at the 
technical level - is not objecting to continuing with the census 
rollout. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: The USG should decide whether to remain a "member" 
of the MOC or downgrade our participation to observer status. Post 
welcomes input from Washington on the issue. A nuanced position 
could be to offer observers in a technical capacity but downgrade to 
observer status.  It would be useful, however, for all donors to 
agree to a united front on this issue.  Given continued MOC 
resistance to donor observation, and its seeming indifference to 
appropriate oversight of the census, donors have concluded that 
census observation by the Carter Center, proffered during former 
President Carter's discussions on the 2009 Elections with Presidents 
Bashir and Kiir in 2007, may be the most viable vehicle for ensuring 
the participation of credible election observers. 
 
POWERS