VZCZCXRO8262
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0230/01 0451437
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 141437Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9968
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, AF/SE WILLIAMSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EFIN EINV KDEM PINR SU
SUBJECT:  Investment Minister Manibe on PEC, AEC and CPA Issues 
 
REFS: (A) KHARTOUM 226 
 
(B) KHARTOUM 216 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  GNU Minister of Investment and SPLM insider 
Kosti Manibe thinks that NCP-SPLM disagreements over the Elections 
Law and the census will be resolved, but argued that the AEC needs 
to take a more proactive role in resolving such issues.  He outlined 
SPLM reservations (which the GNU reportedly has ignored) about 
candidate AEC chairman Derek Plumbly.  Manibe complained that, while 
the NCP talks about the unity of Sudan, it pursues policies that 
undermine it.  He said that his Investment Ministry is working to 
encourage foreign investment outside of greater Khartoum, where the 
bulk of it currently is concentrated.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) In a February 12 meeting with Political-Economic Counselor 
and Economic Officer, Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of 
Investment Kosti Manibe reviewed the state of SPLM-NCP discussions 
on implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  He also 
discussed the relative roles of the AEC and the PEC in resolving 
CPA-related issues. Manibe, a native of Central Equatoria State and 
an ethnic Kuku, is a high-ranking SPLM insider and a member of all 
of its senior governing bodies. 
 
PEC Not Supplanting the AEC 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Emboffs asked Manibe about the relationship between the 
international Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) and the 
joint NCP-SPLM Political Executive Committee (PEC), established when 
the SPLM returned to the GNU in December, and whether the PEC is 
supplanting the AEC as the main venue for the two parties to resolve 
festering CPA issues.  Manibe replied that the NCP seeks to 
marginalize international involvement in CPA implementation and so 
tries to avoid engaging in the AEC.  However, he said that the 
parties also have failed to make significant progress in the PEC. 
Progress there has been made only on issues on which the SPLM and 
NCP have previously agreed.  They have failed to break any new 
ground. 
 
Elections Law and Census Forms 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) Manibe said that the NCP and SPLM remain at loggerheads over 
the issue of proportions in the draft Elections Law (ref a).  The 
NCP continues to insist on a 60%(direct)-40%(proportional) split, 
while the SPLM is pressing for 50-50 split, to be elected on a 
single ballot. This would reduce the cost of the election. 
 
¶5.  (U) Manibe said the SPLM is pressing the NCP to include 
questions on ethnicity, residence and religion in the census.  The 
census forms that have been printed without those questions will 
have to be replaced (ref b).  However, Manibe said he is optimistic 
that the NCP and the SPLM will agree eventually on the Elections Law 
and that the census should be relatively easy to resolve.  (Note: 
The following day, February 13, President Al Bashir decreed that the 
census will be held from April 15 to April 30.  End note.) 
 
Assessment and Evaluation Commission 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Manibe confirmed that the SPLM has not decided to accept 
UK Amb. Derek Plumbly as the new Chairman of the AEC.  Manibe said 
that while he has found Plumbly knowledgeable when the two met, many 
in the SPLM have reservations, based on Plumbly's career 
specialization as an Arabist, including serving as UK Ambassador to 
Egypt.  Manibe also said that Plumbly's wife is Egyptian.  The SPLM 
is concerned that this background may color Plumbly's views in favor 
of the NCP.  (Note:  Despite Manibe's assertion that the SPLM had 
yet to consent to Plumbly, the following day Sudanese press reported 
that President Al Bashir had appointed Plumbly to the post.  End 
note.) 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Manibe praised the U.S. for its role in brokering the CPA 
and in its implementation.  He repeated that the NCP is suspicious 
of the international partners in the AEC, not only the United 
States.  Emboffs commented that this is unfortunate.  Time is 
running short on CPA implementation.  If issues continue to drag on 
unresolved, it could build up into a crisis a year from now. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Manibe said that the work of the AEC could be improved, 
especially in the four Working Groups.  He added that the SPLM would 
like the international members of the AEC, including the United 
States, to be more proactive.  The AEC should not simply wait for 
the NCP and SPLM to work out disagreements between themselves in the 
PEC and then approve.  It has to take an active part in resolving 
issues.  Emboffs remarked that it would be helpful if the SPLM would 
make that point with the members and encourage the members to do 
so. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000230  002 OF 002 
 
 
Wealth Sharing, Unity, and Elections 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Manibe stated that whatever the outcome of the 2011 
referendum on national unity, it would be useful to plan ahead on 
wealth sharing between the North and South.  He said that there had 
been some initial discussion of this, but that nothing ever 
developed.  Now the SPLM is pretending that no such discussions have 
ever taken place.  Emboffs commented that this is a typical NCP 
strategy, to agree to something and then back away. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Manibe continued that while the NCP constantly harps on 
the national unity of Sudan, it pursues policies that seem intended 
to make unity unattractive.  It is difficult to fathom their logic, 
since it is most in the NCP's interest to make unity work and hold 
Sudan together. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Manibe said that the NCP, while publicly accusing the 
SPLM of wanting to cancel the scheduled 2009 elections, has been 
pressing the SPLM privately to agree to do so.  Manibe admitted that 
the SPLM had at first resisted elections during the Naivasha peace 
talks in 2004, but it had firmly committed to them in the CPA and 
now sees the elections as a key guarantee of CPA as a whole.  Asked 
about the impact of the recent election unrest in Kenya on Sudan's 
election plans, Manibe said that the Kenya violence was worrisome, 
but it was more important to hold elections in order to protect the 
CPA. 
 
Investment Ministry 
------------------- 
 
¶12.  (U) Manibe said that within his Ministry, relations between NCP 
and SPLM representatives largely depend on the personalities of the 
individuals.  He said that the Ministry is seeking to encourage 
foreign investment outside of the Khartoum area, where he estimated 
80% of it currently is directed.  It is working with states to 
develop there own investment plans and priorities.  He also cited 
the need for improved infrastructure, including roads and power, to 
bring investment to outlying regions. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) As we have found to be the case with many other SPLM 
officials, Manibe was more comfortable discussing the ins and outs 
of NCP-SPLM politics than with the operations of his Ministry. 
Manibe was well informed and confident in his views and opinions. 
His remarks son the Election Law and the census track closely with 
what we have heard from other sources.  However, it was remarkable 
that within a day of Manibe saying that the SPLM had problems with 
AEC chair Plumbly (and Manibe should know since he is an SPLM leader 
on the AEC) President Bashir appointed Plumbly to the position. 
Though it is possible that Manibe was not fully briefed his by SPLM 
peers on the Plumbly appointment, it is likely another example of 
the Presidency taking actions without obtaining full SPLM approval. 
Although it is not clear who ordered the printing of the census form 
-- apparently without SPLM approval on the questions posed -- it 
appears to follow a similar pattern. 
 
POWERS