VZCZCXRO3060
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0199/01 0391237
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081237Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9929
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 000199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF/SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: PARTICIPATION IN CENSUS MONITORING 
 
REF: (A) KHARTOUM 172 
(B) KHARTOUM 155 
(C) KHARTOUM 114 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY:  International donors have expressed their concern 
that the government-run Census Monitoring and Observation Committee 
(MOC)is dysfunctional and does not have a well formulated plan for 
census monitoring and observation.  Some donors wish to downgrade 
their membership status from members to observers, while others 
believe this sends too strong a political signal too late in the 
game that the donors believe the census will not be credible.  The 
current MOC plan includes pairing international monitQs with 
Sudanese monitors for the census (though it does not specify if it 
will accept western monitors).  Post suggests that we should take 
them up on this offer and provide monitors, especially if the MOC 
can devise a credible monitoring plan. END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
PURPOSEFUL DYSFUNCTION OR AN UNORGANIZED MESS? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶2. (SBU) On 29 January, international donors met and shared their 
concerns regarding the Census Monitoring and Observation Committee 
(MOC), a sub-committee of the government-run Population Census 
Council (PCC).  Donors agreed that the MOC is dysfunctional and has 
no detailed plan for moving forward with census observation. 
Furthermore, the donors, who are MOC members, feel that there has 
been a lack of communication within the MOC, which only meets on a 
quarterly basis.  The donors themselves don't know why they were 
afforded MOC membership (as opposed to observer status) in 2006 when 
the committee was established.  "The whole thing [the MOC] is a joke 
- although there is supposed to be one representative from each 
state, the Southerners don't even attend," said the World Bank.  The 
EC added, "Representatives from the political parties also don't 
attend.  Has anyone ever seen someone there from the Arab League or 
the African Development Bank?"  Donors questioned whether the MOC 
was dysfunctional purposefully or because of a lack of capacity. 
 
----------- 
MOC BASICS 
----------- 
¶3. (U) The PCC was created by Presidential Decree 81/2006 and has 
three sub-committees:  advocacy and publicity, monitoring and 
observation, and finance.  MOC membership includes representatives 
from all states (Northern and Southern), the political parties, 
civil society, NGOs, the World Bank (WB), the African Development 
Bank, USAID, League of Arab States, the African Union, the Danish 
Development Agency (DANIDA), the EU, and France. The MOC is a 
national body and receives funding both from the GNU and the donors. 
 
 
¶4. (U) Per the presidential decree, the MOC's stated duties and 
responsibilities are: 
-- Monitoring and observing census execution at all stages and 
levels; 
-- Ensuring compliance with census established criteria and 
standards; 
-- Ensuring comprehensive coverage; 
-- Ensuring transparency of all census procedures and operations; 
-- Providing regular reports including recommendations when 
necessary to the PCC; and 
-- Providing report on the final census results to the PCC. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
NO CLEAR GAME PLAN FOR MONITORING AND OBSERVATION 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶5. (SBU) The MOC has no time tables or action plans for census 
monitoring and observation.  The only plan it has, said the WB rep, 
is one drawn from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) whereby two 
observers are deployed to each state for a few weeks before, during 
and after census enumeration.  Donors all agreed that only two 
census monitors per state is not sufficient. 
 
¶6. (SBU) USAID asked if there was any viable alternative to create 
an independent monitoring mechanism.  The World Bank said that 
donors had raised the possibility of having international monitors 
in an earlier MOC meeting, but that both Northern and Southern MOC 
reps rejected this idea.  USAID said it could offer extra observers 
if the GNU agrees to accept them. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
A CALL FOR DONORS TO DOWNGRADE THEIR MEMBERSHIP STATUS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
¶7. (SBU) The European Commission (EC) predicted that, regardless of 
whether the census is credible, the MOC, which is led by an NCP 
Chairman, will be "used politically" to publicly announce that the 
census was conducted fairly and involved no foul-play.  If we remain 
members of this committee, the EC rep explained, we will be tied to 
 
KHARTOUM 00000199  002 OF 004 
 
 
the MOC's statement of results, whether it is true or false.  In 
light of this vulnerability, the EC called for all donors to jointly 
downgrade their MOC membership status from member to observer.  The 
World Bank agreed and said, "We [as donors] have no leverage over 
what happens in the MOC." It was agreed that the EC would draft a 
letter to the MOC stating donor concern over the MOC's lack of a 
sound census monitoring mechanism and requesting to change 
membership status from members to observers.  Donors at the meeting 
agreed to share this draft letter with their embassies and make a 
determination on whether to support the action.  At the time, all 
donors seemed in favor of supporting a joint downgrade in 
membership. 
 
------------------------------------ 
TWO STEPS FORWARD, THREE STEPS BACK 
------------------------------------ 
¶8. (SBU) The Census Donor Group met a second time on 5 February to 
review the plan to present the MOC with a membership downgrade 
request at a MOC meeting on 6 February.  Unexpectedly, the British, 
the French and the Danish switched gears and expressed concern with 
the move to downgrade status.  The Danish voiced concern that it was 
"too late" to make such a request (three months before the census) 
and were backed up by the British who said that such an action would 
send a signal from the donor community to the GNU authorities that 
the MOC was "not credible."  The French recommended that the letter 
be positive instead of negative and suggested that the donors send a 
letter voicing concern about the lack of an observation plan, while 
at the same time stating continued donor support to the MOC.  The 
World Bank, EC and USG all disagreed and continued to press the 
donors to jointly request a downgrade in membership status or 
withdraw from the MOC altogether.  "If we remain members, they will 
use us," said the World Bank.  Due to vehement disagreement over a 
course of action, it was decided that the donors would all attend 
the 6 February MOC meeting to judge the credibility and seriousness 
of the MOC before making a decision on membership 
downgrade/withdrawal. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
LOOKING GOOD ON CAMERA, BUT SAYING LITTLE 
------------------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) The MOC held an all-day session, with TV media present, on 
6 February in Khartoum to review preparation for the census and 
reveal a monitoring and observation strategy.  The meeting was only 
attended by two Southerners, Southern Sudan Center for Census, 
Statistics and Evaluation (SSCCSE) Chairman Isaiah Chol and MOC Head 
in Juba, Alair Riak Makol.  No southern state representatives were 
present.  The meeting commenced with two hours of speeches from the 
MOC Chairman, MOC spokesman, UNFPA representatives, and Minister of 
the Presidency and PCC Chairman General Bakri Hassan Salih.  All 
speeches indicated that census preparation is on track. However, few 
details were provided. 
 
¶10. (U) Southern MOC member Alair Riak Makol presented several 
critical questions from the Southern perspective: when will the 
presidential decree for the census come out?; why is the MOC not 
active on the ground in the South?; what are the funding constraints 
on the MOC?; and where are the international observers?  Makol's 
comments were followed by the EC, which publicly expressed strong 
concern to MOC Chairman Dr. Abdulbagi Gailani that there is no 
information-sharing among MOC members.  The EC said, "We are 
O|;Gz4D,bl=dyHialz08g$ea%L m&-6720iQbGhPz`obQ=fQhese 
questions at the meeting. 
 
¶11. (U) GNU Minister of Interior Alzubair Bashir Taha, who is also 
the Census Security Committee Chairman, stated that troops are ready 
in each state to deal with any "potential disruptions" to the 
census.  He said that the southern state of Jonglei and areas where 
the LRA is active are potential flashpoints and assured there would 
be greater security coverage in such areas. He also said that there 
is a need for "political resolution" in southern West Kordofan 
before the census can be successfully conducted there. He claimed 
that the situation in Darfur is "clear" and that the GNU is "ready 
to conduct the census peacefully" in Darfur. However, several MOC 
members (including university professors and northern state 
representatives) registered their concern over the census in Darfur. 
 They pointed out that rebel, SAF, and Chadian forces are active in 
the region, which would certainly be a security problem for 
enumerators.  Furthermore, rebel and IDP camp leaders may tell their 
people not to cooperate in the census (ref B).  Minister Taha 
responded rather unconvincingly that the Ministry of Interior stands 
ready to "give orders to protect" census enumerators and civilians 
in the case of the disruption, but he noted that there was not 
 
KHARTOUM 00000199  003 OF 004 
 
 
enough government financing to do all that was necessary.  He 
suggested that the donors provide more support in order to deal with 
these issues. 
 
¶12. (SBU) During the final hour of the meeting, an MOC spokesman 
presented the committee's plan for monitoring and observation.  He 
stressed that it was a "general framework" and that "details are not 
available now."  The plan calls for a total of 50 monitors (two 
monitors per state - one international, one national) for a period 
of time before, during and after enumeration.  The spokesman 
explained that the MOC is reviewing CVs for monitors from Sudan, 
Africa, and the Middle East.  After presenting a hastily-prepared 
and vague three-page document on monitoring plans, the spokesman 
said, "In a short time all of the details should be available."  The 
international donors immediately expressed their displeasure with 
the plan.  DANIDA, a major financier of the census, said that it was 
"disappointed" with the general framework and "all of the talk." 
"Where is the detailed work plan?  Isn't that what we, the MOC, were 
supposed to discuss today?"  DANIDA emphasized that the work plan 
needs the blessing of the full MOC.  The WB inquired about the 
selection process for CVs, the funding of the monitoring plan, and 
where the monitors would be deployed.  The British said they were 
pleased with the general framework, but that it is "urgent to get 
the details sorted out.  We want the detailed plan to go before the 
entire MOC for input and approval."   The British also raised the 
question of whether two monitors per state is sufficient.  The MOC 
Chairman responded by saying, "We have no objection to have more 
observers.  Two is the minimum.  We will discuss this later."  The 
Chairman finished up the meeting by saying that the MOC is "open and 
transparent," but that its efforts need more funding. 
 
¶13. COMMENT: All international donors to the census are frustrated 
by the MOC's lack of organization and planning and are skeptical of 
its potential political aims. Some, however, are reluctant to join 
in a unified stance to downgrade their MOC membership. They fear 
that it will spur a political fall-out with the GNU, which may in 
turn damage the ability of international observer missions to 
participate in the 2009 elections.  Although it is unclear whether 
the MOC is purposefully dysfunctional by design or has real capacity 
problems, this is the first time that the MOC leadership has 
indicated it will accept international census observers.  Post 
recommends that the USG offer monitoring and observation assistance 
to the GNU in order to bolster the MOC monitoring plan that is 
dreadfully lacking in depth and substance.  This could be offered 
during Foreign Minister Deng Alor's visit to Washington or by SE 
Williamson on his first visit to Sudan later this month.  Provision 
of observers will highlight the importance of the census and the 
USG's preparedness to work with the GNU in planning for and 
executing it.  Although the GNU has not accepted such assistance for 
the census in the past, and may not accept western monitors for the 
census, we believe it is worth making an offer to demonstrate our 
shared interest in a successful census.  Other donors, such as the 
World Bank and the European Commission, stand ready to assist as 
well should the MOC provide a credible observation plan.  However, 
if international and U.S. monitors are allowed to participate and 
believe that the census is carried out poorly, the USG will need to 
be prepared to speak out and this would of course further strain 
US-Sudanese relations. 
 
FERNANDEZ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000199  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
 
FERNANDEZ