VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKH #0191/01 0380846
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070846Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9907

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000191 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/E WILLIAMSON 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR, AND ALSO PASS USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN ECON EAID SU
SUBJECT: AEC PLENARY EXPOSES WEAKENED COMMISSION 
 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY: On February 6, the Assessment and Evaluation 
Commission (AEC) held its 28th plenary session, a meeting consumed 
with deliberating the terms of reference (TORs) for the mid-term 
evaluation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  The SPLM 
supported the use of outside consultants for drafting this document, 
while the NCP stated that the AEC should only hire subject matter 
experts for outstanding issues.  The acting Chairman delayed 
resolution on this, saying that the TORS should be taken "as a 
starting place" which will be amended and formally adopted in the 
March plenary. END SUMMARY. 
 
CHAIRMAN'S REPORT 
----------------- 
¶2.  (U)  As is customary, the plenary session began with a report by 
the acting AEC Chairman, Fridtjof Thorkildsen, covering the period 
from January 9 to February 5.  The Chairman presented a generally 
positive report, commending the SPLA and SAF's redeployment efforts, 
thanking the U.S. for its contribution for the AEC's new facility in 
Juba, and stating that the relationship between the SPLM and NCP 
"has moved towards normalization."  The Chairman urged the parties 
to accept a new AEC chairman as soon as possible and also to 
consider allowing UNMIS observer status at the Joint Defense Board. 
(Note:  The agenda for the February 5 plenary, the Chairman's 
report, and the draft terms of reference have all been sent to 
AF/SPG.  End Note.) 
 
¶3.  (U)  Following the chairman's report, the parties commented that 
they supported UNMIS participation in the joint defense board, but 
wanted more information regarding their exact status as observers. 
The Chairman requested that the UN representative submit a written 
request to the AEC with respect to this.  The parties also stated 
that they are in favor of holding more AEC meetings in Juba.  As 
this would require substantial planning and expense, they agreed 
that a meeting in Juba should be a more general orientation and 
longer than the normal two hours allotted to the plenary sessions. 
The SPLM stated that this would be particularly beneficial to their 
party as some of their representatives to the AEC are based in Juba. 
 
 
UPDATE FROM THE PARTIES 
----------------------- 
¶4.  (U)  The parties provided an update on their latest work in the 
newly-formed political executive committee established after the 
return of the SPLM to the Government of National Unity (GNU). 
Muhammad Mukhtar Al-Hassan, representing the NCP, highlighted the 
committee's work on redeployment from the 1956 border, progress on 
the elections law, and planning for the census.  He stated that the 
next meeting of the committee will be on February 11.  Kosti Manibe, 
representing the SPLM, agreed that progress has been made in these 
areas and that the committee is "slowly moving forward, even if it 
is behind schedule."  Sayed El-Khatib of the NCP added that in the 
future it would be best if the Working Group coordinators, and not 
the parties, gave updates on the status of CPA implementation. 
(Comment: This would be difficult to achieve, as there are no 
international observers at the joint political committee established 
by the presidency.  End Note). 
 
TERMS OF REFERENCE 
------------------ 
¶5.  (U)  The parties used the remainder of the plenary to debate the 
terms of reference for the mid-term evaluation of the Comprehensive 
Peace Agreement.  The SPLM stated that outside consultants are 
necessary because: the AEC secretariat currently lacks expertise and 
support staff; drafting the report will require extensive time and 
energy for both the parties and coordinators; and the deadline of 
January 9 is quickly approaching.  The SPLM also stated that the 
consultant would work within the secretariat, be directed and 
controlled by it, and only provide the first draft for the report, 
which would later have to be agreed upon by the NCP and SPLM.  The 
NCP disagreed, stating that outside consultants should not replace 
or "sideline" the AEC, and they should be used only when there is 
disagreement or a lack of expertise on a particular matter.  The NCP 
stated "the AEC should be in charge from day one and it should be 
written word-for-word with full involvement of the AEC."  CDA 
Fernandez stated that the resignation of former Chairman Tom 
Vraalsen, the loss of the AEC's support staff, and continued 
deliberation has created a hemorrhage which could impede important 
work such as the mid-term evaluation.  He said continued 
deliberation over appointing a new chairman will hamper the work of 
the AEC.  He added that outside consultants would not replace the 
AEC but would provide "intellectual manual labor" for the AEC 
secretariat. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶6.  (U)  The Norwegian Ambassador ended the deliberation stating 
that that the working groups first need to define what experts are 
necessary for their groups.  He also suggested the formation of a 
steering committee of representatives for the drafting of the MTE 
from the AEC secretariat, the four working group coordinators, and 
the SPLM and NCP representatives.  He said that the AEC should 
consider using three types of consultants: 1) Expert consultants on 
specific areas used for short term assignments;  2) Consultants for 
drafting the Mid Term Evaluation;  3) Consultants seconded to the 
AEC secretariat.  [Note:  Thorkildsen stated that the AEC will soon 
receive another German legal advisor to replace the former advisor 
who departed Khartoum in December 2007.  End Note.]  The NCP 
responded to the chairman's suggestions saying, "We accept the TORS, 
but we would like to add to them to make them more general.  There 
needs to be more emphasis on practical points as this will save us 
headaches in the future."  Khatib also stated that the Government of 
National Unity is required to make funds available to the AEC for 
its functioning.  He suggested that funds could be attained from the 
GNU for experts.  Thorkildsen concluded that the AEC will work with 
the current TORS as a starting point and formally accept a revised 
edition of the terms of reference at a later date. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Minutes from the AEC plenary will be forwarded to AF/SPG as 
soon as they are received from the AEC.  [Note:  Typical functions 
of the AEC have slowed noticeably since December 2007. End Note.] 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶8.  (SBU)  The NCP's assertion that the AEC mid-term evaluation 
should be produced by a drafting committee is unrealistic, as 
experience working for two years on the CPA factual report clearly 
demonstrated.  [Note: Taking over 9 months to draft and described by 
one working group coordinator "as a very painful process," the 
factual report was plagued by unnecessary delays, often 
uncooperative parties, and occasional outward hostility between the 
parties. End Note.]  The question of hiring an outside consultant 
has not been resolved for the mid-term evaluation.  If there is to 
be a primary drafter, this individual or team of experts needs to be 
identified as soon as possible as the original terms of reference 
scheduled the submission of the first draft of the mid-term report 
for April 15.  If the terms of reference are formally adopted at the 
next plenary in March, this will leave only one month to hire a 
primary drafter and write the report. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) With its administration gutted, three canceled working 
group meetings in February alone, delays in appointing a new 
chairman, and another institution (the newly-formed NCP-SPLM 
political executive committee) serving as the primary venue for 
NCP-SPLM dialogue, this plenary session exposed a debilitated AEC. 
The SPLM representatives appeared tentative and complacent, perhaps 
afraid to rock the boat after just returning to the GNU.  Meanwhile, 
the NCP was at its best, obsessing over minutiae, dragging out the 
process unnecessarily, putting form over substance, and appearing to 
be amicable while firmly standing its ground. 
 
FERNANDEZ