VZCZCXRO5925
OO RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0350/01 0431317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 121317Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2795
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000350 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT DEBATE ELECTION 
CALENDAR AND LAW 
 
REF: A. KABUL 130 
     ¶B. KABUL 243 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The law and calendar for the 2009/10 elections have 
erupted onto the top tier of the Afghan political agenda in 
the past week following debates in both houses of parliament 
and a flurry of meetings involving the three branches of 
government.  President Karzai privately convened influential 
members of parliament to lobby for consolidated elections 
based on the voting system used in the 2004/5 elections.  The 
leadership of both houses of parliament have seized the 
initiative to stake out a position based on claimed public 
support for introducing an element of proportional 
representation into the election law.  Parliamentarians 
sympathetic to the opposition United Front's position 
favoring a figurehead (Pashtun) president linked to a (Tajik) 
prime minister seem to be using the Palace's press for 
consolidated elections as a pretext for demanding a Loya 
Jirga to ask for a revision of presidential powers.  Karzai 
is scrambling to regain the initiative and has convoked 
international community representatives to discuss what they 
will support. 
 
President Lobbies for Consolidated Elections 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On February 3, President Karzai convened a meeting 
of influential former mujahideen leaders and members of 
parliament to broker a political agreement on when to hold 
presidential, parliamentary, and provincial council elections 
in the 2009/10 time-frame.  The meeting reportedly included 
lower house speaker Mohammed Yunus Qanooni, upper house 
deputy speaker Hamid Gailani, Ustad Abdurab Rassoul Sayyaf, 
and Haji Mohammad Mohaqeq.  Karzai reportedly pressed the 
members of parliament to support consolidated elections based 
on the single non-transferable voting (SNTV) system used in 
the 2004/5 elections. 
 
Parliament Proposes Amending the Constitution 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Speaker Qanooni briefed the February 9 session of 
parliament on the meeting with President Karzai.  He said 
that President Karzai advocated consolidated elections to 
honor requests from the international community to minimize 
costs.  Qanooni voiced concerns about the constitutionality 
of consolidated elections.  He said that Sayyaf and Mohaqeq 
also oppose consolidated elections, but others reported that 
they differed on details.  Chief Justice Azimi suggested that 
the constitution does not forbid members of parliament from 
leaving office one year prior to the completion of their 
terms, permitting elections in the fall of 2009. (MPs are 
unlikely to accept this solution.  One idea may be to pay 
their salaries through the end of their terms if they leave 
office early.)  Qanooni reassured members that elections 
timing would be decided by the entire parliament, not just 
the leadership, but framed the question as a contest between 
executive and legislative prerogatives.  Qanooni suggested 
that the lower house begin its debate on February 13.  That 
same day legislative committee chair Saleh Mohammad Regestani 
plans to publish a survey of public opinion, reportedly 
showing public support for separate elections and 
proportional representation. 
 
¶4. (SBU) On February 10, an unusually proactive upper house 
of parliament discussed the election calendar.  Newly 
re-elected first deputy speaker Hamid Gailani spearheaded the 
debate, advocating a Loya Jirga to discuss election timing 
and to alter the constitution to accommodate simultaneous 
elections.  Other senators interviewed by local media 
discussed the need to "amend other articles of the 
constitution."  Gailani and deputy secretary Hossaini 
subsequently confirmed that a small group of senators is 
interested in reconsidering articles 60 and 159 of the 
 
KABUL 00000350  002 OF 002 
 
 
constitution, establishing respectively the office of the 
president and the dates for presidential and parliamentary 
elections.  (Gailani's prominent role suggests that rumors 
about his presidential aspirations are well founded and that 
he may be talking to the United Front about their idea of a 
figurehead Pashtun president linked to a Tajik prime 
minister, changes that would require constitutional 
amendments.) 
 
Karzai Looks for Cover from Donors 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) On February 5, President Karzai's Chief of Policy, 
Sebghatullah Sanjar, described the February 3 meeting as 
fruitless.  Sanjar advocated consolidated elections in the 
fall of 2009.  He urged international community leaders to 
declare that elections would be combined and fix a date to 
break the stalemate, saying Afghans would follow donors' 
lead.  Afghan politicians should make use of donor funds to 
seek permanent solutions to their electoral problems:  "build 
a bridge to the future, not just throw a brick in the river." 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Sanjar confided that Karzai's positions on the 
election calendar and law also reflect political expedience. 
Karzai calculates that consolidated elections will tax the 
ability of the opposition United Front leaders to manage 
presidential and parliamentary campaigns simultaneously, 
resulting in losses of parliamentary seats for the 
opposition.  He fears that proportional representation would 
favor the United Front and other established parties that 
developed out of the former warring factions at the expense 
of newer, more reform-minded groups. 
 
¶7. (SBU) On February 11, President Karzai invited senior 
ministers and international community officials for a 
discussion on February 13 of whether elections should be held 
together or separately.  He may plan to use concern to 
minimize election costs voiced by some members of the 
international community to bolster his position for 
consolidated elections in the emerging battle of wills with 
parliament. 
 
Politics Will Decide 
-------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The debate over the election calendar and law remain 
cloaked in discussions of constitutional integrity and 
elections best practices, but the positions are based on 
politics and personal ambition.  Qanooni believes rightly 
that mixed PR would favor the United Front, and Karzai 
believes SNTV would put it at a disadvantage.  Similarly, 
Qanooni believes separate elections would allow him to run 
for president and parliament, but Karzai seeks to combine 
elections to hinder the United Front and Qanooni's own 
ambitions.  Qanooni also calculates that insisting on a 
strict reading of the constitution -- which is vague on the 
issue of election timing -- will force Karzai to either 
abandon consolidated elections or force a constitutional Loya 
Jirga, which would expose the constitution to more sweeping 
changes favored by the United Front.  Qanooni has little 
reason to budge.  The United Front will cloak its position in 
unsubstantiated claims of public support, while President 
Karzai tries to remain blameless by getting the international 
community to constrain the scope of options. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The process is underway and the stakes are high. 
The calls for re-opening the constitution are an especially 
worrisome reminder of the fragility of the current 
constitutional order underpinning the regime and our own 
engagement in Afghanistan. 
 
 
WOOD