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Viewing cable 08HANOI245, FINANCE MINISTER ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY, ASEAN AND

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08HANOI245 2008-02-29 10:01 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Hanoi
VZCZCXRO0936
PP RUEHCHI RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #0245/01 0601001
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291001Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7293
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH 4360
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000245 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
SINGAPORE FOR TREASURY 
TREASURY FOR SCHUN 
USTR FOR BISBEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAID EAIR EFIN PGOV VM
SUBJECT: FINANCE MINISTER ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY, ASEAN AND 
AVIATION UPGRADE 
 
REF: A) 07 Hanoi 1729 
 
      B) 07 Hanoi 2013 
      C) Hanoi 116 
      D) Hanoi 193 
      E) Hanoi 210 
 F) Hanoi 243 
 
HANOI 00000245  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1. (U) This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified.  For official use 
only, not for dissemination outside USG channels or posting on the 
internet. 
 
2. (SBU) Summary:  In a February 26 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Finance Minister Vu Van Ninh recognized the difficulty of 
reconciling Vietnam's goals of high economic growth and low 
inflation, and hoped that the currency's exchange rate would remain 
steady in 2008.  The Minister also promised to look into Vietnam's 
corresponding contribution to the U.S.-sponsored project to upgrade 
Vietnam's aviation regulatory safety posture to Category 1.  The two 
also discussed the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in Vietnam next 
April and cooperation on improving Vietnam's capital markets.  End 
summary. 
 
COMPETING GOALS MAKING LIFE HARD AT FINANCE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The Ambassador paid a courtesy call on Finance Minister Vu 
Van Ninh on February 26.  Ninh, who has worked at Finance for most 
of his professional life, told the Ambassador that the 8.5 - 9 
percent growth target for 2008 would probably be off the mark.  He 
expressed similar pessimism at being able to contain high inflation 
effectively. (Note:  This week the GVN announced February's CPI 
index increased 15.7 percent year-on-year, almost twice the 
Government's aim to keep inflation below the growth rate. Also, see 
Reftels. End note.)  "Inflation targets are hard to meet because of 
high commodity and import prices," he lamented. "Too-tight monetary 
policy may stifle growth and development."  Over the last month, the 
Government of Vietnam (GVN) has tried to rein in liquidity to try to 
contain inflation, without results thus far (REF C). 
 
4. (SBU) Ninh and the Ambassador also discussed the possibility that 
a global economic slowdown in 2008 may also dent Vietnam's export 
revenues, which grew by 29 percent in 2007 (Ref F).  To compound the 
situation, the Vietnamese dong has been appreciating against the 
dollar, a trend that is expected to continue in 2008.  Ninh said 
that he expected to be able to forestall a considerable dong 
appreciation.  "We expect it to keep from appreciating or 
depreciating too much against the dollar," he vowed. 
 
HOPES THAT HIGH INVESTMENT CAN COME TO THE RESCUE 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5.  (SBU) The Minister took solace from the fact that the investment 
picture remains positive.  "Fortunately, we continue to expect high 
investment numbers" in 2008.  Vietnam's success in attracting 
investment (Vietnam authorized $17.65 billion in new investment in 
2007) has been a key component of its growth strategy, and 
increasingly important in balancing its current accounts (Reftel D). 
 Ninh said that U.S. investment thus far had been "modest" and had 
much room to grow. 
 
AVIATION SAFETY UPGRADE GETS MINISTERIAL ATTENTION 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
6.  (SBU) The Ambassador raised the issue of GVN funding for a Trade 
and Development Agency (USTDA) initiative to upgrade Vietnam's 
regulatory safety posture to Category 1 that would allow direct 
flights to the United States.  "I have heard your Prime Minister say 
that this is a priority for him, but the Minister of Transportation 
said that he was having trouble obtaining the necessary $50,000" for 
the GVN contribution to the $1.4 million project, funded thus far by 
USTDA and the U.S. private sector.  Minister Ninh said that he was 
not familiar with the issue and promised to look into it.  On 
February 27, the General Director of the Finance Ministry's 
International Cooperation Department told us that Ninh had already 
given instructions to see what was holding up the contribution and 
that she hoped that the request would be approved in the immediate 
future. 
 
ASEAN FINANCE MINISTERS' AGENDA 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) To questions from the Ambassador on the upcoming ASEAN 
Finance Ministers' meeting in Vietnam, Ninh said that the three 
 
HANOI 00000245  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
priority items on the agenda would be financial sector security, 
capital mobilization and the Chang Mai Initiative.  The Twelfth 
ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting will be held in Danang in central 
Vietnam, on April 3 and 4, along with the Informal ASEAN Finance and 
Central Bank Deputies Meeting Plus Three (China, Japan and South 
Korea). 
 
CAPITAL MARKET IMPROVEMENTS 
--------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) The Ambassador and Minister Ninh also talked about the 
development of Vietnam's capital markets.  The Finance leader 
recognized that the sector needed "more attention, especially in 
[establishing] the legal framework."  The Ambassador mentioned that 
more developed bond and municipal markets would improve Vietnam's 
ability to finance much-needed infrastructure expansion. 
 
9. (SBU) In this regard, the Ambassador noted that Treasury is 
offering to provide technical assistance to help Vietnam develop its 
bond market.  The Minister said he welcomed this assistance. 
 
BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES 
------------------ 
 
10. (SBU) Aside from a 2003-06 stint at the Hanoi's People 
Committee, the 53 year-old Ninh has spent his entire career at the 
Finance Ministry.  The U.K.-based magazine The Banker chose him in 
2007 as its Asian Finance Minister of the Year for his support for 
economic reform and willingness to engage with the global bond 
markets, among other things 
(http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullstory.php/ aid/ 
4666/Finance_Minister_of_the_Year_Asia.html). 
During the meeting, he was courteous and somewhat reserved; but that 
did not keep him from poking fun at the Embassy's "humble" 
facilities when the Ambassador praised the imposing look of the 
Finance Ministry (both of them laughed).  Ninh has proved to be one 
of the most elusive of the GVN's ministers to agree to a meeting as 
it took nearly six months from the date of the Ambassador's initial 
request for this courtesy call.   (Curiously, former Finance 
Minister and now Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung, and Ninhs' 
mentor, is equally hard to meet.)  Ninh understands English, often 
nodding as the Ambassador spoke, and said a few pleasantries in 
English after the meeting. 
 
MICHALAK 
 
 
 
4