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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Hesse Waits for Hamburg before Breaking Political Deadlock 
 
REF: Frankfurt 0265; Berlin 0137 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: Two weeks after the Hesse state election, the political 
parties remain deadlocked on forming a government with few 
discernable signs of movement.  With state elections in Hamburg 
coming up soon, all sides appear to be biding their time for now. 
The disastrous CDU campaign in Hesse has already translated into 
lower approval ratings for the party and Chancellor Merkel 
nationwide.  Increasingly, national politicians are weighing in to 
break the impasse in Hesse and staking out positions for the 2009 
federal election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
NO CLEAR WINNER, NO CLEAR WAY FORWARD 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  The January 27 Hesse state election ended in a virtual tie 
between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social 
Democratic Party (SPD), both of whom won forty-two spots in the 
110-seat Landtag (state parliament).  CDU Minister President Roland 
Koch fared far worse than expected, but still claimed victory on 
election night, having won 3,535 more votes than his SPD rival 
Andrea Ypsilanti.  With these results, the CDU cannot form a 
government with its preferred partner, the Free Democratic Party 
(FDP) which gained eleven seats.  Likewise, the SPD cannot form a 
government with its partner, the Green Party, which has nine seats. 
With many of his opponents immediately calling on Koch to resign 
after what they categorized as a defeat, he has since kept a low 
profile, going on vacation and making few public appearances. 
 
¶3.  In Hesse, all parties appear to be waiting for the results of 
the February 24 election in Hamburg.  With the SPD and CDU locked in 
a tight race there, neither side wishes to tip the balance by trying 
to make a deal in Hesse.  The parties have made a few "low-ball 
offers" and a few face-to-face meetings have taken place.  The SPD 
remains adamant that it was the clear victor, having come from far 
behind to win nearly as many votes as the CDU, and has called on the 
FDP to join it and the Greens in a government.  For their part, 
however, both Hesse FDP leader Joerg Uwe Hahn and national leader 
Guido Westerwelle have maintained that they will only join a 
government led by the CDU. 
 
¶4.  The CDU has expressed a preference for a CDU-FDP-Green 
coalition, but also could, alternatively, form a CDU-SPD "Grand 
Coalition."  Both options are difficult to imagine, however, given 
the intense animosity the Greens and the SPD have for Koch.  Media 
sources speculate that Roland Koch will eventually step down, 
clearing the way for a CDU-led government.  CDU Education Minister 
Karin Wolff announced her resignation this week in a small olive 
branch to both the SPD and the Greens, who covet the ministry. 
Recent Emnid and Forsa polls put the national CDU at 35%, its lowest 
number in several months, and Chancellor Angela Merkel's own 
popularity is down slightly as well.  This decline has been largely 
ascribed to the misjudged CDU campaign in Hesse.  Reacting 
negatively to Koch's anti-foreigner tone, several CDU politicians 
across Germany have already attempted to distance themselves from 
his right-leaning politics. 
 
-------------------------- 
ENTER THE NATIONAL PARTIES 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  The only clear winner so far is the newly formed Left Party, 
which will enter the parliament for the first time with six seats. 
Hesse Left Party leader Willi Van Ooyen has announced that his party 
would support, but not necessarily participate in, a SPD-Green 
minority government.  While such a coalition would be possible, SPD 
leader Andrea Ypsilanti has said she would not accept it.  The SPD 
and the Left party have so far not cooperated outside of the former 
eastern German states, and a deal in Hesse could possibly split the 
SPD both at the state and national levels.  At the same time, 
left-leaning national Green Party leaders Juergen Trittin and 
Christian Stroebele called last week on their party and the SPD to 
consider working with the Left Party, a move that other national 
Green Party leaders promptly rejected. 
 
¶6.  The new parliament will be sworn in on April 5.  If no deal has 
been reached by then, the current Koch-led CDU government will stay 
on.  While such a government would be largely ineffective without 
parliamentary support, Hesse went through this once before for over 
a year in the early 1980's.  The new parliament can also call for 
new elections by a simple majority vote, a decision that would be 
risky for all. 
 
¶7.  COMMENT:  The deadlock in Hesse is a product both of 
intransigence at the local level and of the state's national 
importance.  With all sides staking out turf for the 2009 federal 
election, both Hesse and Hamburg could set a precedent for a future 
national government.  Hesse politicians will wait for the Hamburg 
 
FRANKFURT 00000447  002 OF 002 
 
 
results before making any serious moves, but the safest scenario for 
the CDU and the SPD would be a Grand Coalition that replicates the 
situation on the federal level and breaks no new ground.  However, 
both the CDU and the SPD still have hopes of leading a government 
with support from the FDP and the Greens in Hesse, with the tacit 
goal of opening the possibility at the national level as well, as 
all sides try to cope with the new five-party landscape in Germany. 
END COMMENT. 
 
¶7.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin and Consulate 
General Hamburg. 
POWELL