VZCZCXRO1671
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0151/01 0381131
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071131Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9987
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1100
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0338
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0822
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PTER KDEM SG
SUBJECT: CASAMANCE OF SENEGAL: A STALLED PEACE PROCESS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: A permanent peace in the Casamance remains 
elusive since the fragmentation of the MFDC (Movement of Democratic 
Forces of Casamance) following the death of its founder Father 
Diamacoune Senghor and the resulting in-fighting amongst the group's 
military wing, Atika.  President Abdoulaye Wade's undeclared 
strategy of maintaining the status quo in the hope that the 
rebellion will die a natural death has lead to an absence of 
significant dialogue between the GOS and the MFDC.  Marijuana 
growing and highway robberies, and other illicit acitivies provide 
enough financial incentives for rebels to continue to stay in the 
MFDC. End summary. 
 
No Political Representation 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The MFDC's loose political structure did not survive the 
death of Father Diamacoune Senghor, leaving the government without 
an interlocutor that could speak for the whole of the MFDC.  Those 
that now claim to speak for the group have little support and 
include Abdoulaye Diedhiou, who is in jail in the Gambia, and 
Nkrumah Sane, a hardliner who lives in exile in Paris.  Ansoumana 
Badji, a former secretary general of the MFDC who maintains ties 
with President Wade's office while shuttling between Lisbon, Paris, 
Dakar and the Casamance, told the Embassy that Wade "believes that 
the conflict is over and is no longer listening."  In his view, Wade 
thinks that sooner or later the MFDC will capitulate.  This view 
seems to be corroborated by the fact that the Foundiougne 
negotiations to resolve the conflict have been abandoned and that 
the GOS no longer has a Casamance mediator. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Jean-Marie Biagui, the current but not widely supported 
Secretary General of the MFDC told the Embassy he was disappointed 
 
SIPDIS 
with Wade's refusal to appoint two MFDC members to Senegal's Senate. 
 Biagui argued that this would have given a voice to the MFDC within 
the country and paved the way for an integration of MFDC members 
within institutions after a negotiated settlement.  Biagui, who is 
for decentralized rule in the Casamance, told the Embassy that Wade 
had initially accepted his proposition but reversed course when 
Presidential adviser, Pierre Atepa Goudiaby, a Casamance native, 
warned that this would cause serious divisions and tension within 
the Joola population, the leading ethnic group in the separatist 
movement. 
 
Fragmented Armed Groups and Interference 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Though fragmented, Atika has armed men in areas bordering 
both the Gambia and Guinea Bissau.  Atika's leading commander Salif 
Sadio enjoys the protection of Gambian President Jammeh who gave him 
a safe haven following several attacks by a mix of Senegalese and 
Bissau Guinean soldiers and fighters from two rival branches within 
Atika led by Magne Dieme and Cesar Atoute Badiate.  Dieme is the 
architect of a strategy, supported by Guinea-Bissau and Senegal, to 
kill Sadio and build a unified command with Badiate to restart talks 
with the GOS.  However, there are unconfirmed reports that Dieme 
died while being interrogated by Gambian police who were trying to 
ascertain whether nor not his group supported former Gambian chief 
of staff Colonel Cham's coup attempt.  For its part, the GOS remains 
quiet while Jammeh, who benefits from this conflict and who needs 
Joola support to stay in power, detains its MFDC "allies" as they 
believe that a decapitated and fragmented MFDC is more malleable 
than a unified one. 
 
Yet the Mood is Upbeat in the Casamance 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) While talk of conflict and armed robberies continue, the 
mood amongst the people of the Casamance remains cautiously upbeat. 
During a recent trip to the region Poloff discussed the situation in 
the region with several NGOs and local activists and they were all 
unified in their belief that peace has never been closer.  When 
asked why, they all emphasized that people have had enough of the 
conflict.  Moroever, they contended that as older rebel leaders have 
died no younger ones have emerged with the ability to hold the 
rebellion together.  Meanwhile, local NGOs, several with USG funds, 
are focusing their programs on conflict resolution, inter-communal 
dialogue, methods to achieve peace and young people. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) World Education, an American NGO working to improve the 
lives of the poor through economic and social development, has 
funded the creation of six community radios.  For the first time, a 
medium now exists to give the various players in the conflict a 
means to express themselves and allow others to know what they 
think, the MFDC included.  World Education Director Abdou Sarr told 
Poloff that this program has been so successful that they are being 
inundated with requests for assistance to help set up more community 
 
DAKAR 00000151  002 OF 002 
 
 
stations.  The stations have programs in all of Senegal's main 
languages as well as in local dialects.  World Education monitors 
the programming to make sure that the focus remains on the peace 
process.  He went on to say that they plan to increase the number of 
radio stations to 12 because they believe that the fundamental 
barrier to peace is a lack of communication between the many actors 
in this complex struggle. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ibrahim Ba, the director of CONGAD, a national umbrella 
organization for the many NGOs in Senegal, echoed a similar view, 
saying the MFDC is losing popular support and that there has been a 
clear reduction in the intensity of the conflict.  However, he 
warned that some parties, mainly those involved in illegal logging 
and drug trafficking, had much to gain from keeping this conflict 
alive.  He also lamented a lack of engagement from Dakar saying: 
"everybody in the region knows exactly what needs to be done to 
resolve conflict but all Dakar does is come here and bribe some 
people and leave."  Still Ba remains upbeat:  "In the past the 
conflict had widespread local support but nowadays that is no longer 
the case." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Although there seems to be widespread local support for an 
end to the conflict, prospects for a definitive negotiated peace 
settlement remain elusive, especially since the GOS seems to be 
favoring a policy to allow the MFDC to either simply wither on vine 
or to self-destruct by encouraging internal fighting within Atika 
and by bribing its political leaders.  Thus, while the MFDC has been 
weakened, the frustrations that caused the rebellion in the first 
place are still there.  Life in the Casamance is a juxtaposition of 
extreme poverty and insecurity for its inhabitants with abundant 
natural resources that have the potential to change the face of the 
region.  Nowadays, the conflict has morphed from a fight for 
independence for the region into lucrative sources of income for 
rebels who have branched into marijuana growing, highway robbery, 
and illegal logging (the military is also alleged to be involved in 
illegal logging).  Reportedly, the MFDC has gone so far as to gain 
control of orchards by mining the areas around them.  This situation 
is likely to continue, given the GOS's lack of political will to 
resolve the conflict and the government's preoccupation with Wade's 
succession. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) There is, however, a significant risk that President Wade 
could lose the strategic gamble he is making.  The Casamance region 
borders the fragile, quasi-narco state of Guinea-Bissau.  While we 
have no reason to believe at this time that the MFDC is implicated 
in trafficking of South American cocaine from Guinea-Bissau, the 
danger is clear.  The GOS barely controls the Casamance region and 
Senegal's borders are porous. 
SMITH