VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCG #0077/01 0600449
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290449Z FEB 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1512
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3000
RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG IN
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS WANT A "THIRD ALTERNATIVE" TO BJP AND CONGRESS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) 
politburo member from Kerala Pinarayi Vijayan,  told post that his 
party would work to form "a third alternative" to the coalitions led 
by the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP) before India's next parliamentary elections.  He said the 
party would not dilute its opposition to U.S.-India civil nuclear 
cooperation under any circumstances.  In pursuing a "third 
alternative" the CPI(M) is preparing to abandon the weakened and 
dispirited Indian National Congress and stave off the political 
oblivion the CPI(M) faces after the next parliamentary elections. 
Speaking about his party's problems in Kerala, Vijayan said that the 
recently concluded party state conference would result in a more 
coherent and effective CPI(M)-led government in the state, 
indicating that he feels he has subdued his rival Chief Minister 
Achuthanandan's more "old school" faction.  If Vijayan is right and 
Achuthanandan's more dogmatic impulses will be reined in, it could 
mean modest improvements in Kerala's investment climate.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
LOOKING FOR A "THIRD ALTERNATIVE" 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) CPI(M) Politburo Member and Kerala Party Secretary Pinarayi 
Vijayan recently told post that the CPI(M) will seriously pursue the 
formation of a "third alternative" in the run up to the next 
parliamentary elections.  Vijayan said the "third alternative" would 
be distinct from the either the Congress-led United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) or the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). 
Asked whether this meant the Left would enter into a partnership 
with the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA or "Third 
Front"), formed last year by a group of regional parties, Vijayan 
demurred, saying it is too early to speculate on the shape of the 
new alliance.  (NOTE:  On February 26, shortly after Vijayan spoke 
with post, CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat addressed a 
UNPA-sponsored farmer's rally in New Delhi, where he reportedly said 
"It is my appeal to the UNPA leaders that the time has come for us 
to work towards the formation of a third alternative."  END NOTE.) 
Vijayan also refused to speculate whether the Left would support the 
Congress in a post-election scenario if that was the only way to 
keep the BJP out of power. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Vijayan's comments came in the wake of CPI(M) General 
Secretary Prakash Karat's February 11 speech to the Kerala CPI(M) 
 
SIPDIS 
state conference in which he said that the third alternative would 
be founded on three principles:  consistent opposition to 
communalism, agreement on a common minimum program, and a firm 
commitment to an independent (read anti-U.S.) foreign policy.  In 
his speech, Karat tore into the UPA for its "opportunistic stand" on 
communalism, its "neo-liberal economic agenda," its evolving 
strategic alliance with the United States, and its growing military 
cooperation with Israel. 
 
OLD SCHOOL CHIEF MINISTER SIDELINED 
---------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Asked about the possible impact of the recently concluded 
CPI(M) State Conference, Vijayan told post that the leftist 
government would now function more effectively and cohesively. 
Vijayan said that on the investment front, the government would do 
better going forward.  Media reports highlighted that Vijayan's 
faction had trounced Chief Minister Achuthanandan's more "purist" 
communist faction at the State Conference.  But reports also noted 
that the Karat-led Politburo prevented a complete wipeout of 
Achuthanandan's faction, against the wishes of the majority of the 
elected Kerala party officials.  Although Achuthanandan was spared 
the humiliation of a rumored mid-term ouster, journalists believe 
that he was told to follow the state party's orders and to create a 
climate more conducive to investment. 
 
NO COMPROMISE ON CIV-NUKE DEAL 
---------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Vijayan told post that the CPI(M) will not dilute its 
opposition to the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal under any 
circumstances.  "We have concluded that instead of a partnership 
between two equals where give and take are possible, it is one in 
which America would dictate terms to India," he said.  Vijayan said 
the Left would withdraw its support to the UPA government if it goes 
ahead with the agreement. 
 
THIRD ALTERNATIVE A FACE-SAVING TACTIC FOR NEXT ELECTIONS 
---------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Kerala media sources pointed out that the CPI(M)'s new 
position on the "third alternative" seems to be a tactic compelled 
by the party's electoral prospects.  In the three states where the 
CPI(M) has a major presence -- West Bengal, Kerala, and Tripura -- 
its principal opposition is the Congress party.  Although they have 
supported the Congress-led UPA from outside the alliance, the CPI(M) 
has opposed many UPA policy initiatives and it would be hard for 
CPI(M) leaders to demand another five years of the same from their 
restless members.  By moving away from the Congress the CPI(M) also 
hopes to dodge the anti-incumbency wave which they think will swamp 
Congress and the UPA.  Still, many media contacts believe that the 
Left parties could easily lose more than 20 of their 61 seats in the 
next parliamentary elections. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  There also are broader strategic considerations 
at play.  CPI(M) leaders are engaged in a deliberate effort to craft 
an ideologically cohesive alternative to the UPA and the NDA 
grounded in leftist economic policies.  But their past statements 
indicate a fear that they might never get the regional parties -- 
who focus on gaining and maintaining power at the expense of any 
real ideological content -- to commit to a serious pursuit of the 
Left's economic agenda.  In pursuing a "third alternative" the CPI-M 
is preparing to abandon the weakened and dispirited Congress Party. 
The third alternative approach is also an effort to stave off the 
political oblivion the CPI(M) faces after the next parliamentary 
elections.  The CPI(M) no doubt has keen memories of its virtual 
irrelevance on the national stage during the National Democratic 
Alliance's 1994-2000 regime.  With the resurgent BJP looking better 
prepared each day to overthrow Congress, the CPI(M) is exploring a 
new set of allies to avoid the fate it suffered in 1999-2004.  The 
problem the CPI-M faces is that most of its prospective "third 
alternative" partners - Chandrababu Naidu, Om Prakash Chautala, 
Jayalalithaa, and Mulayum Singh Yadav - are former BJP allies who 
could quickly abandon the CPI(M) to return to the NDA fold if the 
BJP does well in the parliamentary elections. 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED:  In Kerala, Vijayan's emergence from the 
State Conference as the undisputed leader of the state CPI(M) has 
boosted the hopes of those who want the state to more actively court 
investment.  But those hopes may soon turn to disappointment. 
Vijayan may have won the battle, but by stopping Vijayan's faction 
from sacking Chief Minister Achuthanandan the Karat-led politburo 
ensured that any major changes will be hard to implement.  For 
example, Vijayan's victory certainly will not alter the state's 
emphasis on environmental considerations, which lead it to court 
investment only in those sectors it deems "harmless," such as 
information technology and tourism.  Manufacturing and processing 
industries will continue to get the cold shoulder from the state 
government.  At best, expect a government slightly more aggressive 
in its pursuit of investment in IT and tourism.  But it will still 
be too little, too late in the competitive environment of South 
India, where neighboring Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh 
all have their doors wide open to investment.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. 
 
HOPPER