VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCG #0073/01 0571111
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261111Z FEB 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1507
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2995
RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON IN
 
SUBJECT: INDIA'S THIRD FRONT LOOKS TO AN ALLIANCE WITH LEFT PARTIES 
 
REF:  07 NEW DELHI 2678 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  A senior leader of the United National 
Progressive Alliance (the "UNPA" or "Third Front") told post that 
they are moving towards an alliance with India's Left parties. 
Former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu explained 
that the UNPA and Left parties are motivated by a common concern 
over the failure of economic reforms to deliver benefits to India's 
poor, especially in rural areas.  His comments are in line with 
recent moves indicated increasing coordination between the UNPA and 
Left parties.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NAIDU SAYS THIRD FRONT LOOKING TO ALLY WITH LEFT 
--------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In a February 19 meeting, Chandrababu Naidu, leader of 
Andhra Pradesh's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) told Charge d'Affaires 
White that the UNPA was moving towards an alliance with India's left 
parties.  Naidu is one of the UNPA's principal leaders; he hosted 
the alliance's formal announcement in June 2007 at his home in 
Hyderabad.  Naidu said that "things are moving the direction" of a 
Left/UNPA alliance because they share a commitment to "more 
inclusive growth" in India. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Naidu said "many Indians have been left out of the 
benefits of economic reforms."  He pointed to farmer suicides and 
the increasing gap between India's ultra-rich -- noting recent 
reports about the number of billionaires in India -- as evidence of 
the need to more evenly spread the benefits of growth.  Naidu 
approvingly cited the U.S. estate tax as an example of policies 
designed to reduce inequality:  "We need to look at something like 
that."  He said that he believes that India is "evolving into a 
modern economy" but that the UNPA and Left parties agree that during 
this process the government must help rural people through the 
transition.  Naidu added that the ruling United Progressive Alliance 
(UPA) has not done enough to help rural India. 
 
DMK INSIDER SAYS FALL ELECTIONS A POSSIBILITY 
--------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Separately, DMK Member of Parliament Kanimozhi (who is 
also the daughter of DMK chief M. Karunanidhi) surveyed the 
political situation for the Charge in a February 20 meeting in 
Chennai.  Kanimozhi, who serves as her father's (and thus her 
party's) unofficial spokesperson in New Delhi, said it is possible 
that there will be early parliamentary elections this fall, but 
added that things will become much clearer after upcoming elections 
in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.  When asked about 
relations between her DMK party and the UPA's dominant partner, the 
Indian National Congress (INC) Party, Kanimozhi simply shrugged and 
said relations between the two are "okay."  She made clear that the 
INC is heavily dependent on DMK support for electoral success in 
Tamil Nadu, adding that Union Finance Minister Chidambaram ("not a 
man of the people" in Kanimozhi's estimation) could not win his 
Tamil Nadu constituency without the DMK. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Naidu's comments on the prospects of a UNPA/Left 
alliance are in line with recent demonstrations of increasing warmth 
between the two sides.  In the fall of 2007, the UNPA and Left 
parties agreed to coordinate their opposition in Parliament to the 
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative.  This year Naidu 
has joined with other UNPA leaders in organizing a series of 
well-publicized rallies decrying the "anti-farmer policies of the 
UPA government" to which Left party leaders have reportedly been 
invited.  Although the Left was dismissive of the UNPA when it was 
first formed (reftel), they seem to be moving towards a partnership 
in the next national elections.  Naidu and his TDP party were turned 
out of power in Andhra Pradesh in 2004 largely due to charges of 
lack of attention to farmers and the agricultural sector.  His 
conversion to the cause of farmers and others who have not benefited 
from India's hi-tech led economic boom - a boom that Naidu is 
credited with fostering in the state -- show his sensitivity to the 
issue and, we expect, a resolve not to lose again when Andhra 
Pradesh returns to the polls in 2009. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Naidu's TDP once allied with the 
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); it was a part of the BJP-led National 
Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Delhi from 1999-2004.  By 
flirting with the Left and other UNPA partners, Naidu has distanced 
himself from the BJP in hopes of appealing to Andhra Pradesh's 
sizable Muslim vote.  Despite his statements that he will not join 
with the BJP because he opposes the BJP's "communal" politics, it 
remains possible that Naidu's TDP would rejoin the BJP-led NDA if 
the alliance finds itself in a position to form the government in 
Delhi after the next elections.  One alliance that we can rule out 
for certain for Naidu is with the INC, which forms his principal 
opposition within the state and with whom he has a rancorous 
relationship.  END COMMENT. 
¶7.  (U) This cable was cleared by Deputy Chief of Mission White. 
 
HOPPER